Post on 19-Jun-2015
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INSTITUTO TECNOLÓGICO DE LA CONSTRUCCIÓN, Programa de Maestría en Administración de la Construcción, Mexicali Baja California ----> ANÁLISIS DE LAS DECISIONESRuta temática Construcción (encuesta mensual)> Valor de producción generado por las empresas de la entidad> En términos reales> Por sector institucional> Total de las obras como contratista principal > Baja California
Periodicidad MensualUnidad de medida Miles de pesos (a precios de junio de 2012).
Fuente INEGI. Encuesta Nacional de Empresas Constructoras.Cifras preliminares 2012/01
Fecha inicial 2013/11
Fecha final2006/01
Última actualización2014/01/31
mes Periodo Dato Percentil Dato ObservaciónPronóstico
DatoResiduos
1 2006/01 1,084,306.99$ 0.526315789 679186.3005 1 1041378 42929.14 Resumen2 2006/02 1,228,814.53$ 1.578947368 683000.103 2 1042159 186655.4
3 2006/03 1,312,498.76$ 2.631578947 697393.8194 3 1042940 269558.4 Estadísticas de la regresión4 2006/04 1,132,535.91$ 3.684210526 703939.4637 4 1043722 88814.32 Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.075732115
5 2006/05 1,320,599.78$ 4.736842105 718297.2777 5 1044503 276096.9 Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.005735353
6 2006/06 1,358,917.23$ 5.789473684 732362.53 6 1045284 313633.1 R^2 ajustado -0.004955664
7 2006/07 1,129,267.74$ 6.842105263 732509.2335 7 1046065 83202.41 Error típico 285094.1814
8 2006/08 1,116,776.17$ 7.894736842 744779.5463 8 1046847 69929.59 Observaciones 95
9 2006/09 1,369,877.38$ 8.947368421 759046.5497 9 1047628 322249.6
10 2006/10 1,325,534.41$ 10 760503.8059 10 1048409 277125.3 ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
112006/11
1,432,466.60$ 11.05263158 776426.6764 11 1049190 383276.3
Grados de
libertad
Suma de
cuadrados
Promedio de
los cuadrados F
Valor crítico de
F
12 2006/12 1,208,118.61$ 12.10526316 779593.4808 12 1049972 158147 Regresión 1 43603147046 43603147046 0.536464673 0.465743531
13 2007/01 938,266.12$ 13.15789474 789472.4624 13 1050753 -112487 Residuos 93 7.55892E+12 81278692278
14 2007/02 1,093,808.51$ 14.21052632 791696.9779 14 1051534 42274.46 Total 94 7.60252E+12
15 2007/03 1,089,765.18$ 15.26315789 797687.2776 15 1052315 37449.88
16 2007/04 1,172,816.00$ 16.31578947 799259.9078 16 1053097 119719.4 Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0% Superior 95.0%
17 2007/05 1,481,429.24$ 17.36842105 800195.9934 17 1053878 427551.4 Intercepción 1040596.603 58965.00039 17.64769941 1.93907E-31 923503.798 1157689.407 923503.798 1157689.407
18 2007/06 1,274,728.62$ 18.42105263 804999.7263 18 1054659 220069.6 mes 781.2466981 1066.639422 0.732437487 0.465743531 -1336.887802 2899.381198 -1336.887802 2899.381198
19 2007/07 1,219,288.71$ 19.47368421 805532.4218 19 1055440 163848.4
20 2007/08 1,215,711.22$ 20.52631579 813264.1311 20 1056222 159489.7
21 2007/09 1,340,029.85$ 21.57894737 814990.5601 21 1057003 283027.1
22 2007/10 1,286,572.60$ 22.63157895 824430.6152 22 1057784 228788.6
23 2007/11 1,412,049.30$ 23.68421053 825382.6849 23 1058565 353484
24 2007/12 1,292,594.76$ 24.73684211 830975.0167 24 1059347 233248.2
25 2008/01 905,726.85$ 25.78947368 831963.162 25 1060128 -154401
26 2008/02 957,080.16$ 26.84210526 835342.7758 26 1060909 -103829
27 2008/03 933,054.73$ 27.89473684 845713.3581 27 1061690 -128636
28 2008/04 1,062,766.61$ 28.94736842 859660.7942 28 1062472 295.1047
29 2008/05 1,007,759.04$ 30 867960.8269 29 1063253 -55493.7
30 2008/06 1,494,201.86$ 31.05263158 878464.2657 30 1064034 430167.9
31 2008/07 1,263,297.86$ 32.10526316 880540.9886 31 1064815 198482.6
32 2008/08 1,024,359.99$ 33.15789474 896158.5929 32 1065596 -41236.5
33 2008/09 779,593.48$ 34.21052632 896762.5842 33 1066378 -286784
34 2008/10 791,696.98$ 35.26315789 903807.6468 34 1067159 -275462
35 2008/11 825,382.68$ 36.31578947 905726.8473 35 1067940 -242558
36 2008/12 943,137.52$ 37.36842105 917840.2536 36 1068721 -125584
37 2009/01 683,000.10$ 38.42105263 933054.7282 37 1069503 -386503
38 2009/02 776,426.68$ 39.47368421 938266.1172 38 1070284 -293857
39 2009/03 804,999.73$ 40.52631579 943137.5218 39 1071065 -266065
40 2009/04 835,342.78$ 41.57894737 954379.896 40 1071846 -236504
41 2009/05 732,362.53$ 42.63157895 957080.1617 41 1072628 -340265
42 2009/06 1,010,854.18$ 43.68421053 961976.7872 42 1073409 -62554.8
43 2009/07 880,540.99$ 44.73684211 982029.6339 43 1074190 -193649
44 2009/08 703,939.46$ 45.78947368 1007759.039 44 1074971 -371032
45 2009/09 824,430.62$ 46.84210526 1010854.179 45 1075753 -251322
46 2009/10 845,713.36$ 47.89473684 1011927.661 46 1076534 -230821
47 2009/11 1,011,927.66$ 48.94736842 1024359.986 47 1077315 -65387.5
48 2009/12 1,192,721.79$ 50 1027474.266 48 1078096 114625.3
49 2010/01 797,687.28$ 51.05263158 1043017 49 1078878 -281190
50 2010/02 917,840.25$ 52.10526316 1044097.734 50 1079659 -161819
51 2010/03 961,976.79$ 53.15789474 1048063.404 51 1080440 -118463
52 2010/04 1,044,097.73$ 54.21052632 1059423.995 52 1081221 -37123.7
53 2010/05 867,960.83$ 55.26315789 1062766.615 53 1082003 -214042
54 2010/06 1,059,423.99$ 56.31578947 1084306.988 54 1082784 -23359.9
55 2010/07 697,393.82$ 57.36842105 1089765.185 55 1083565 -386171
56 2010/08 760,503.81$ 58.42105263 1093808.513 56 1084346 -323843
57 2010/09 903,807.65$ 59.47368421 1103591.746 57 1085128 -181320
58 2010/10 744,779.55$ 60.52631579 1109208.547 58 1085909 -341129
59 2010/11 813,264.13$ 61.57894737 1116776.169 59 1086690 -273426
60 2010/12 896,158.59$ 62.63157895 1129267.739 60 1087471 -191313
Análisis de los
residuales
Resultados de datos
de probabilidad
-600000
-400000
-200000
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Res
idu
os
mes
mes Gráfico de los residuales
Línea RECTA:
y = 9497.7x + 603213 R² = 0.9392
Línea EXPONENCIAL:
y = 674735e0.0087x R² = 0.9845
$550,000
$750,000
$950,000
$1,150,000
$1,350,000
$1,550,000
$1,750,000
$1,950,000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Val
or
de
Pro
du
cció
n g
en
era
da
po
r la
s e
mp
resa
s "C
ON
STR
UC
TOR
AS"
Muestra percentil
Gráfico de Probabilidad "Normal"
Presenta: ING. RODOLFO MORALES VELÁZQUEZ 28/02/2014, RMV Mxli Valor de producción generado por las empresas -a enero 2014.xlsx Página: 1
61 2011/01 789,472.46$ 63.68421053 1132535.913 61 1088253 -298780
62 2011/02 830,975.02$ 64.73684211 1159267.144 62 1089034 -258059
63 2011/03 814,990.56$ 65.78947368 1172815.998 63 1089815 -274825
64 2011/04 732,509.23$ 66.84210526 1192721.793 64 1090596 -358087
65 2011/05 831,963.16$ 67.89473684 1208118.608 65 1091378 -259414
66 2011/06 982,029.63$ 68.94736842 1215711.225 66 1092159 -110129
67 2011/07 805,532.42$ 70 1216618.479 67 1092940 -287408
68 2011/08 679,186.30$ 71.05263158 1219288.714 68 1093721 -414535
69 2011/09 859,660.79$ 72.10526316 1228814.528 69 1094503 -234842
70 2011/10 800,195.99$ 73.15789474 1263297.858 70 1095284 -295088
71 2011/11 1,048,063.40$ 74.21052632 1274728.623 71 1096065 -48001.7
72 2011/12 759,046.55$ 75.26315789 1286572.598 72 1096846 -337800
73 2012/01 718,297.28$ 76.31578947 1292594.756 73 1097628 -379330
74 2012/02 799,259.91$ 77.36842105 1312498.761 74 1098409 -299149
75 2012/03 896,762.58$ 78.42105263 1320599.782 75 1099190 -202428
76 2012/04 878,464.27$ 79.47368421 1325534.413 76 1099971 -221507
77 2012/05 1,027,474.27$ 80.52631579 1340029.848 77 1100753 -73278.3
78 2012/06 1,043,017.00$ 81.57894737 1346055.948 78 1101534 -58516.8
79 2012/07 1,103,591.75$ 82.63157895 1358917.229 79 1102315 1276.655
80 2012/08 954,379.90$ 83.68421053 1369877.38 80 1103096 -148716
81 2012/09 1,159,267.14$ 84.73684211 1412049.302 81 1103878 55389.56
82 2012/10 1,109,208.55$ 85.78947368 1412931.159 82 1104659 4549.715
83 2012/11 1,535,325.13$ 86.84210526 1432466.596 83 1105440 429885
84 2012/12 1,412,931.16$ 87.89473684 1459736.128 84 1106221 306709.8
85 2013/01 1,216,618.48$ 88.94736842 1475847.319 85 1107003 109615.9
86 2013/02 1,346,055.95$ 90 1481429.239 86 1107784 238272.1
87 2013/03 1,528,167.94$ 91.05263158 1494201.861 87 1108565 419602.9
88 2013/04 1,623,995.93$ 92.10526316 1495064.503 88 1109346 514649.6
89 2013/05 1,475,847.32$ 93.15789474 1528167.937 89 1110128 365719.8
90 2013/06 1,459,736.13$ 94.21052632 1535325.125 90 1110909 348827.3
91 2013/07 1,741,840.76$ 95.26315789 1623995.933 91 1111690 630150.7
92 2013/08 1,663,642.38$ 96.31578947 1663642.376 92 1112471 551171.1
93 2013/09 1,829,251.17$ 97.36842105 1741840.762 93 1113253 715998.6
94 2013/10 1,875,350.92$ 98.42105263 1829251.169 94 1114034 761317.1
95 2013/11 1,495,064.50$ 99.47368421 1875350.923 95 1114815 380249.5
96 2013/12 1,115,596.29$
97
2014/01
1,117,310.15$
98 2014/02 1,122,214.51$ De CurveExpert:
99 2014/03 1,129,218.28$
100 2014/04 1,132,735.20$ Final Result [Linear Regressions/Linear]:
101 2014/05 1,140,488.02$ Equation : a + b*x
1022014/06
1,149,525.94$ 1,034,375.39 = a
103 2014/07 1,154,102.13$ 918.92 = b
1042014/08
1,158,586.02$ 284,754.71
105 2014/09 1,168,732.12$ 0.090010
106 2014/10 1,178,484.07$
1072014/11
1,191,075.03$ ** Pronósticos para: X =
108 2014/12 1,199,492.93$ $ 1,122,591.32 96
109 2015/01 1,202,414.31$ $ 1,123,510.24 97
110 2015/02 1,208,662.26$ $ 1,125,348.07 99
111 2015/03 1,215,012.46$ $ 1,126,266.99 100
112 2015/04 1,223,354.40$ $ 1,130,861.57 105
113 2015/05 1,238,723.71$ $ 1,131,780.48 106
114 2015/06 1,250,423.06$ $ 1,134,537.23 109
115 2015/07 1,261,434.81$ $ 1,135,456.15 110
116 2015/08 1,272,811.57$ $ 1,137,293.98 112
117 2015/09 1,287,337.40$ $ 1,138,212.89 113
118 2015/10 1,301,358.67$ $ 1,140,050.72 115
119 2015/11 1,318,695.72$ $ 1,143,726.39 119
120 2015/12 1,334,242.02$ $ 1,144,645.30 120
¿Qué es el Valor de la Producción de Bienes y Servicios?
• Este concepto representa la suma total del valor de los bienes y servicios producidos por una sociedad de acuerdo a la definición de la producción dada en la pregunta anterior e
incluye el valor de todos los productos sin considerar si son de demanda intermedia o de demanda final.
En términos generales la producción puede ser clasificada como producción de mercado y no de mercado. Es fundamental la distinción entre estas producciones.
En la producción de mercado se considera la producción de bienes y servicios que se destinan a su venta o despacho en el mercado e incluye el valor total de los bienes y servicios
vendidos, intercambiados, utilizados para pagos en especie, suministrados por un establecimiento a otro perteneciente a la misma empresa de mercado para uso como consumo
intermedio así como el valor de las variaciones en existencias de producción terminada y en proceso destinados a los usos señalados. La valoración de esta producción se hará a
precios básicos o a precios de productor según se determine en cada caso.
Se denomina producción no de mercado a aquella que no se produce para la venta u otro uso de mercado. Está constituida por los bienes y servicios producidos para uso final propio
o suministrados gratuitamente o a precios económicamente no significativos a otras unidades institucionales, individual o colectivamente. En el Sistema, esta producción se valora
sumando los costos incurridos en su producción, es decir mediante la suma de:
“consumo intermedio + remuneración de asalariados + consumo de capital fijo + impuestos menos subsidios sobre la producción”.
= Standard Error
= Correlation Coefficient
Presenta: ING. RODOLFO MORALES VELÁZQUEZ 28/02/2014, RMV Mxli Valor de producción generado por las empresas -a enero 2014.xlsx Página: 2
4,560 102,419,162 290,320 4,971,932,050 118,020,256,117,694
Para obtener la pendiente e intercepto con el método de mínimos cuadrados:
95 = n
x y x2 xy y2 (y - ӯ) (y - ӯ)2 (x - X ) (x -X )2 x y Correlaciones
1 1,084,306.99$ 1 1,084,307 1,175,721,645,219 6,210.54$ 38,570,860 -47 2,209 1 1,084,306.99
2 1,228,814.53$ 4 2,457,629 1,509,985,143,127 150,718.08$ 22,715,940,644 -46 2,116 2 1,228,814.53
3 1,312,498.76$ 9 3,937,496 1,722,652,997,568 234,402.32$ 54,944,446,101 -45 2,025 3 1,312,498.76
4 1,132,535.91$ 16 4,530,144 1,282,637,593,990 54,439.47$ 2,963,655,749 -44 1,936 4 1,132,535.91
5 1,320,599.78$ 25 6,602,999 1,743,983,784,952 242,503.34$ 58,807,868,969 -43 1,849 5 1,320,599.78
6 1,358,917.23$ 36 8,153,503 1,846,656,035,729 280,820.78$ 78,860,313,259 -42 1,764 6 1,358,917.23
7 1,129,267.74$ 49 7,904,874 1,275,245,626,346 51,171.29$ 2,618,501,409 -41 1,681 7 1,129,267.74
8 1,116,776.17$ 64 8,934,209 1,247,189,010,775 38,679.72$ 1,496,121,079 -40 1,600 8 1,116,776.17
9 1,369,877.38$ 81 12,328,896 1,876,564,035,633 291,780.94$ 85,136,114,356 -39 1,521 9 1,369,877.38
10 1,325,534.41$ 100 13,255,344 1,757,041,480,024 247,437.97$ 61,225,548,390 -38 1,444 10 1,325,534.41
11 1,432,466.60$ 12115,757,133
2,051,960,548,233354,370.15$
125,578,204,368-37
1,369 11 1,432,466.60
12 1,208,118.61$ 144 14,497,423 1,459,550,571,787 130,022.16$ 16,905,763,159 -36 1,296 12 1,208,118.61
13 938,266.12$ 169 12,197,460 880,343,306,719 (139,830.33)$ 19,552,520,350 -35 1,225 13 938,266.12
14 1,093,808.51$ 196 15,313,319 1,196,417,062,982 15,712.07$ 246,869,103 -34 1,156 14 1,093,808.51
15 1,089,765.18$ 225 16,346,478 1,187,588,158,278 11,668.74$ 136,159,510 -33 1,089 15 1,089,765.18
16 1,172,816.00$ 256 18,765,056 1,375,497,366,124 94,719.55$ 8,971,793,946 -32 1,024 16 1,172,816.00
17 1,481,429.24$ 289 25,184,297 2,194,632,591,539 403,332.80$ 162,677,343,719 -31 961 17 1,481,429.24
18 1,274,728.62$ 324 22,945,115 1,624,933,062,545 196,632.18$ 38,664,213,770 -30 900 18 1,274,728.62
19 1,219,288.71$ 361 23,166,486 1,486,664,967,373 141,192.27$ 19,935,256,963 -29 841 19 1,219,288.71
20 1,215,711.22$ 400 24,314,224 1,477,953,782,059 137,614.78$ 18,937,827,829 -28 784 20 1,215,711.22
21 1,340,029.85$ 441 28,140,627 1,795,679,993,634 261,933.40$ 68,609,108,036 -27 729 21 1,340,029.85
22 1,286,572.60$ 484 28,304,597 1,655,269,049,523 208,476.15$ 43,462,306,630 -26 676 22 1,286,572.60
23 1,412,049.30$ 529 32,477,134 1,993,883,231,225 333,952.86$ 111,524,511,207 -25 625 23 1,412,049.30
24 1,292,594.76$ 576 31,022,274 1,670,801,202,526 214,498.31$ 46,009,525,638 -24 576 24 1,292,594.76
25 905,726.85$ 625 22,643,171 820,341,121,866 (172,369.60)$ 29,711,277,953 -23 529 25 905,726.85
26 957,080.16$ 676 24,884,084 916,002,435,985 (121,016.28)$ 14,644,940,627 -22 484 26 957,080.16
27 933,054.73$ 729 25,192,478 870,591,125,800 (145,041.72)$ 21,037,099,388 -21 441 27 933,054.73
28 1,062,766.61$ 784 29,757,465 1,129,472,877,942 (15,329.83)$ 235,003,664 -20 400 28 1,062,766.61
29 1,007,759.04$ 841 29,225,012 1,015,578,280,616 (70,337.41)$ 4,947,350,578 -19 361 29 1,007,759.04
30 1,494,201.86$ 900 44,826,056 2,232,639,200,936 416,105.42$ 173,143,717,740 -18 324 30 1,494,201.86
31 1,263,297.86$ 961 39,162,234 1,595,921,479,087 185,201.41$ 34,299,563,822 -17 289 31 1,263,297.86
32 1,024,359.99$ 1,024 32,779,520 1,049,313,381,855 (53,736.46)$ 2,887,606,893 -16 256 32 1,024,359.99
33 779,593.48$ 1,089 25,726,585 607,765,995,267 (298,502.96)$ 89,104,019,185 -15 225 33 779,593.48
34 791,696.98$ 1,156 26,917,697 626,784,104,856 (286,399.47)$ 82,024,654,294 -14 196 34 791,696.98
35 825,382.68$ 1,225 28,888,394 681,256,576,539 (252,713.76)$ 63,864,244,148 -13 169 35 825,382.68
36 943,137.52$ 1,296 33,952,951 889,508,384,977 (134,958.92)$ 18,213,910,748 -12 144 36 943,137.52
37 683,000.10$ 1,369 25,271,004 466,489,140,678 (395,096.34)$ 156,101,118,857 -11 121 37 683,000.10
38 776,426.68$ 1,444 29,504,214 602,838,383,861 (301,669.77)$ 91,004,648,803 -10 100 38 776,426.68
39 804,999.73$ 1,521 31,394,989 648,024,559,343 (273,096.72)$ 74,581,817,338 -9 81 39 804,999.73
40 835,342.78$ 1,600 33,413,711 697,797,553,031 (242,753.67)$ 58,929,343,546 -8 64 40 835,342.78
41 732,362.53$ 1,681 30,026,864 536,354,875,389 (345,733.91)$ 119,531,939,422 -7 49 41 732,362.53
42 1,010,854.18$ 1,764 42,455,876 1,021,826,172,194 (67,242.26)$ 4,521,522,166 -6 36 42 1,010,854.18
43 880,540.99$ 1,849 37,863,263 775,352,432,563 (197,555.46)$ 39,028,158,055 -5 25 43 880,540.99
44 703,939.46$ 1,936 30,973,336 495,530,768,569 (374,156.98)$ 139,993,446,064 -4 16 44 703,939.46
45 824,430.62$ 2,025 37,099,378 679,685,839,329 (253,665.83)$ 64,346,352,797 -3 9 45 824,430.62
46 845,713.36$ 2,116 38,902,814 715,231,084,124 (232,383.09)$ 54,001,898,699 -2 4 46 845,713.36
47 1,011,927.66$ 2,209 47,560,600 1,023,997,590,540 (66,168.78)$ 4,378,307,909 -1 1 47 1,011,927.66
48 1,192,721.79$ 2,304 57,250,646 1,422,585,276,397 114,625.35$ 13,138,970,669 0 0 48 1,192,721.79
49 797,687.28$ 2,401 39,086,677 636,304,992,833 (280,409.17)$ 78,629,300,729 1 1 49 797,687.28
50 917,840.25$ 2,500 45,892,013 842,430,731,106 (160,256.19)$ 25,682,046,636 2 4 50 917,840.25
51 961,976.79$ 2,601 49,060,816 925,399,339,019 (116,119.66)$ 13,483,774,758 3 9 51 961,976.79
52 1,044,097.73$ 2,704 54,293,082 1,090,140,077,749 (33,998.71)$ 1,155,912,309 4 16 52 1,044,097.73
53 867,960.83$ 2,809 46,001,924 753,355,997,108 (210,135.62)$ 44,156,977,648 5 25 53 867,960.83
54 1,059,423.99$ 2,916 57,208,896 1,122,379,200,622 (18,672.45)$ 348,660,370 6 36 54 1,059,423.99
55 697,393.82$ 3,025 38,356,660 486,358,139,304 (380,702.62)$ 144,934,488,563 7 49 55 697,393.82
56 760,503.81$ 3,136 42,588,213 578,366,038,824 (317,592.64)$ 100,865,083,900 8 64 56 760,503.81
57 903,807.65$ 3,249 51,517,036 816,868,262,372 (174,288.80)$ 30,376,584,914 9 81 57 903,807.65
58 744,779.55$ 3,364 43,197,214 554,696,572,608 (333,316.90)$ 111,100,154,430 10 100 58 744,779.55
59 813,264.13$ 3,481 47,982,584 661,398,547,000 (264,832.31)$ 70,136,154,051 11 121 59 813,264.13
60 896,158.59$ 3,600 53,769,516 803,100,223,638 (181,937.85)$ 33,101,381,741 12 144 60 896,158.59
𝒙 𝒚 𝒙𝟐 𝒙𝒚 𝒚𝟐
Presenta: ING. RODOLFO MORALES VELÁZQUEZ 28/02/2014, RMV Mxli Valor de producción generado por las empresas -a enero 2014.xlsx Página: 3
61 789,472.46$ 3,721 48,157,820 623,266,768,837 (288,623.98)$ 83,303,802,900 13 169 61 789,472.46
62 830,975.02$ 3,844 51,520,451 690,519,478,405 (247,121.43)$ 61,068,999,932 14 196 62 830,975.02
63 814,990.56$ 3,969 51,344,405 664,209,613,004 (263,105.88)$ 69,224,706,274 15 225 63 814,990.56
64 732,509.23$ 4,096 46,880,591 536,569,777,103 (345,587.21)$ 119,430,520,241 16 256 64 732,509.23
65 831,963.16$ 4,225 54,077,606 692,162,702,933 (246,133.28)$ 60,581,592,614 17 289 65 831,963.16
66 982,029.63$ 4,356 64,813,956 964,382,201,858 (96,066.81)$ 9,228,832,045 18 324 66 982,029.63
67 805,532.42$ 4,489 53,970,672 648,882,482,595 (272,564.02)$ 74,291,146,310 19 361 67 805,532.42
68 679,186.30$ 4,624 46,184,668 461,294,030,795 (398,910.14)$ 159,129,302,758 20 400 68 679,186.30
69 859,660.79$ 4,761 59,316,595 739,016,681,021 (218,435.65)$ 47,714,133,216 21 441 69 859,660.79
70 800,195.99$ 4,900 56,013,720 640,313,627,842 (277,900.45)$ 77,228,660,570 22 484 70 800,195.99
71 1,048,063.40$ 5,041 74,412,502 1,098,436,898,176 (30,033.04)$ 901,983,523 23 529 71 1,048,063.40
72 759,046.55$ 5,184 54,651,352 576,151,664,636 (319,049.89)$ 101,792,835,183 24 576 72 759,046.55
73 718,297.28$ 5,329 52,435,701 515,950,979,209 (359,799.17)$ 129,455,440,200 25 625 73 718,297.28
74 799,259.91$ 5,476 59,145,233 638,816,400,223 (278,836.54)$ 77,749,814,040 26 676 74 799,259.91
75 896,762.58$ 5,625 67,257,194 804,183,132,488 (181,333.86)$ 32,881,968,776 27 729 75 896,762.58
76 878,464.27$ 5,776 66,763,284 771,699,466,108 (199,632.18)$ 39,853,006,701 28 784 76 878,464.27
77 1,027,474.27$ 5,929 79,115,519 1,055,703,367,826 (50,622.18)$ 2,562,604,901 29 841 77 1,027,474.27
78 1,043,017.00$ 6,084 81,355,326 1,087,884,462,289 (35,079.44)$ 1,230,567,407 30 900 78 1,043,017.00
79 1,103,591.75$ 6,241 87,183,748 1,217,914,742,669 25,495.30$ 650,010,432 31 961 79 1,103,591.75
80 954,379.90$ 6,400 76,350,392 910,840,985,929 (123,716.55)$ 15,305,784,298 32 1,024 80 954,379.90
81 1,159,267.14$ 6,561 93,900,639 1,343,900,310,079 81,170.70$ 6,588,682,427 33 1,089 81 1,159,267.14
82 1,109,208.55$ 6,724 90,955,101 1,230,343,601,637 31,112.10$ 967,962,965 34 1,156 82 1,109,208.55
83 1,535,325.13$ 6,889 127,431,985 2,357,223,239,687 457,228.68$ 209,058,066,597 35 1,225 83 1,535,325.13
84 1,412,931.16$ 7,056 118,686,217 1,996,374,459,536 334,834.71$ 112,114,286,095 36 1,296 84 1,412,931.16
85 1,216,618.48$ 7,225 103,412,571 1,480,160,524,604 138,522.04$ 19,188,354,252 37 1,369 85 1,216,618.48
86 1,346,055.95$ 7,396 115,760,812 1,811,866,615,049 267,959.50$ 71,802,295,647 38 1,444 86 1,346,055.95
87 1,528,167.94$ 7,569 132,950,611 2,335,297,243,099 450,071.49$ 202,564,348,444 39 1,521 87 1,528,167.94
88 1,623,995.93$ 7,744 142,911,642 2,637,362,789,257 545,899.49$ 298,006,251,466 40 1,600 88 1,623,995.93
89 1,475,847.32$ 7,921 131,350,411 2,178,125,309,353 397,750.87$ 158,205,758,483 41 1,681 89 1,475,847.32
90 1,459,736.13$ 8,100 131,376,252 2,130,829,563,899 381,639.68$ 145,648,848,369 42 1,764 90 1,459,736.13
91 1,741,840.76$ 8,281 158,507,509 3,034,009,238,716 663,744.32$ 440,556,518,833 43 1,849 91 1,741,840.76
92 1,663,642.38$ 8,464 153,055,099 2,767,705,955,029 585,545.93$ 342,864,038,156 44 1,936 92 1,663,642.38
93 1,829,251.17$ 8,649 170,120,359 3,346,159,838,559 751,154.72$ 564,233,420,260 45 2,025 93 1,829,251.17
94 1,875,350.92$ 8,836 176,282,987 3,516,941,083,962 797,254.48$ 635,614,703,750 46 2,116 94 1,875,350.92
95 1,495,064.50$ 9,025 142,031,128 2,235,217,869,446 416,968.06$ 173,862,362,410 47 2,209 95 1,495,064.50
4,560 102,419,162.20$ 290,320 4,971,932,050 118,020,256,117,694 0 7,602,521,528,932 0 71,440
x y x2 xy y2 (y - ӯ) (y - ӯ)2 (x - X ) (x -X )2
Varianza de y = 80,877,888,606 Varianza de x = 760 Media Desviación típica N
Desv estándar de y = 284,390.3806489670 Desv estándar de x = 27.5680975042 MES (X) 48.00000000 27.5680975042 95
Desv Est de y Fórmula = 284,390.3806489670 Desv Est de x Fórmula = 27.5680975042 Valor (Y) 1,078,096.44 284,390.38062 95
b = <==== INTERCEPTO
Media de y = 1,078,096.44$ Media de x = 48.0000000000
Promedio de y Fórmula = 1,078,096.44$ Promedio de x Fórmula = 48.0000000000 MES Valor
1 .0757321160247
.4657435273436
m = <==== PENDIENTE 95 95.0000000000000
** Pronósticos para: X =.07573211602466 1
$1,115,596.29 96 .46574352734361
$1,116,377.53 97 95 95$1,117,940.03 99
$1,118,721.27 100
$1,122,627.51 105
$1,123,408.75 106
r xy = $1,125,752.49 109
$1,126,533.74 110
$1,128,096.23 112
$1,128,877.48 113
$1,130,439.97 115
$1,133,564.96 119
$1,134,346.21 120
Correlaciones
MES
Valor
Correlación de Pearson
Sig. (bilateral)
N
Correlación de Pearson
Sig. (bilateral)
N
Estadísticos descriptivos
1,040,596.60271332
781.24669805
0.0757321154731752
Y = 1040596.60271332 + 781.246698053859X
𝑏 = 𝑦 𝑥2 − 𝑥 𝑥𝑦
𝑁 𝑥2 − 𝑥 𝑥
𝑚 = 𝑁 𝑥𝑦 − 𝑥 𝑦
𝑁 𝑥2 − 𝑥 𝑥
𝑟𝑥𝑦 = 𝑥𝑖𝑦𝑖 −𝑛 ӯ
𝑛𝑠𝑥𝑠𝑦 =
𝑛 𝑥𝑖𝑦𝑖 − 𝑥𝑖 𝑦𝑖
𝑛 𝑥𝑖2 − ( 𝑥𝑖)
2 𝑛 𝑦𝑖2 − ( 𝑦𝑖)
2
Presenta: ING. RODOLFO MORALES VELÁZQUEZ 28/02/2014, RMV Mxli Valor de producción generado por las empresas -a enero 2014.xlsx Página: 4