FORO Glaciares - GHKperiGlazial
Transcript of FORO Glaciares - GHKperiGlazial
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Predicting Massmovement Processes induced in Periglazial Ar-
Study from central Switzeland
D. Tobler, P. Mani, N.
Foro International Glaciares, HuarazJuly 1th – 4th, 2013
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1. Introduction
2. Concept
3. Methods
4. Results
5. Conclusions
Content
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Guttannen, CentralSwitzerland - BerneseOberland
1. Introduction
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1. Introduction
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1. Introduction
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1. Introduction - Events
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1. Introduction - Events
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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
Octobe
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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
Octobe
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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
Octobe
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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG velocity: ~ 15 m/s
Octobe
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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
Octobe
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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
Octobe
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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011
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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011
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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011
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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
October 2011
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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
Octobe
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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
Octobe
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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
Octobe
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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG
Octobe
2 Concept Process Chain
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2. Concept – Process Chain
2 Concept Process Chain
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2. Concept – Process Chain
2 Concept Process Chain
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2. Concept – Process Chain
Hä
2 Concept – Process Chain
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Rockfall
Ritzlihorn
Debris-Fan
Precipitation Temperature
Melting Permafrost
Aare River
Snow - Avalanches
2. Concept – Process Chain
2 Concept – Process Chain
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2. Concept – Process Chain
3 Methods – Climate
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3. Methods Climate
Linsbauer
Δ
T [
° C ]
+ 2.9 °C (2060)
+ 1.7 °C (2028)
TemperaturGrimsel Hospiz
1980-2009
2035 2060 2060(M3)
JJA 9.6 +1.6 +2.9 +4.2
SON 3.7 +1.0 +2.0 +3.0# days T > 15 °C 5 14 27 34
Periode T > 15°C 2 5 6 10
CH2011 (2011)
3 Methods – Glacier Retreat
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3. Methods Glacier Retreat
16.11.2012
2013
2035
retreat
3 Methods – Glacier Retreat
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Szenario 2060
3. Methods Glacier Retreat
Szenario 2060Szenario 2060
Paul and Linsbaue
3. Methods – Permafrost
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3. Methods Permafrost
Böckli (2012)Nötzli et al. (2012)
Time
R e l a t i v e R a t e / A m o u n t
Erosion Rate Amount of Sediment
3. Methods – Permafrost
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3. Methods Permafrost
3. Methods – Process Models
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3. Methods Process Models
PROCESS MODELS
SLIDISP+
Liener (2000)Riner (2009)
Tobler et al. (2011)
ROFMOD 3D
Tobler and Pfeifer (2011)
Scheuner and McArdell (2007)
RAMMSDebris Flow
4. Results - Rockfall
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4. Results Rockfall
Deposition
volume[m3]
4. Results - Landslides
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4. Results – Debris Flow
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Rotlaui Channe
4. Results – Debris Flow
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Spreitgraben
5. Conclusions / Outlook
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- Where are the critical sections along
the mountain pass road?
- Rough estimation of the amount of bedload depostion possible ?
- Definition of possible protection
measures ?
5. Conclusions / Outlook
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+ 150’000 m3
+ 1.5 mio m
+ 2.0 mio m3
5. Conclusions / Outlook
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Key to Success - Profound knowledge of ongoing processes and process chains
- Courage to break down complicated systems to basic steps
- Knowing existing uncertainties
5. Conclusions / Outlook
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Thank You