PREVISIONES DE TRANSPORTE ATMOSFÉRICO DE POLEN: … 2018/46… · 14º Congreso Nacional del Medio...
Transcript of PREVISIONES DE TRANSPORTE ATMOSFÉRICO DE POLEN: … 2018/46… · 14º Congreso Nacional del Medio...
Congreso Nacional del Medio AmbienteMadrid del 26 al 29 de noviembre de 2018
PREVISIONES DE TRANSPORTE ATMOSFÉRICO DE POLEN: ESTUDIO SOBRE LAS ESPECIES DE PLATANUS Y PINUS EN BARCELONA
Michaël SicardBloque temático Calidad Ambiental y Salud#conama2018
0102030405
Motivation and objectives
Airborne pollen and instruments
The 27-31 March, 2015, pollination event
Platanus and Pinus transport simulation
Conclusions
Índice de contenidos
Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
MOTIVATION AND OBJECTIVES
01
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
Motivation and objectives
• Many people living in large cities suffer from allergies linked to the presence of airborne pollen
• Very little is known on pollen vertical distribution• Atmospheric pollen forecast are scarce or inexistent
Continuation of anongoing collaborationstarted in 2015
Rebeca Izquierdo, Marta Alarcón, Jordina Belmonte, Adolfo Comerón + Oriol Jorba
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
Motivation and objectives
• Investigate with an air quality forecast system the factors responsible of:• Pollen release• Pollen dispersion/transport
• By evaluating the model performances against near-surface concentrationand backscatter coefficient profile measurements
AIRBORNE POLLEN AND INSTRUMENTS02
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
Airborne pollen and instruments
Pinus anemophily (=wind pollination) Platanus
Pollen source
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
Airborne pollen and instruments
Pollen grains
Pinus
From 60 to >100 μm
20 μm
Platanus
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
Airborne pollen and instruments
Vane Rain protection
Air entry hole
Suction Motor
Vacuum pump
Sealed removable head
Connection
mains
Airborne pollen concentration: HIRST collector
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
Airborne pollen and instruments
Airborne pollen concentration: methodology
1 week of data are collected
on 1 drum covered by a
Melinex film coated with a 2%
silicon solution as trapping
surface
The Melinex film is cut on 7 portions
each portion is 48 mm long and corresponds to a day (24h)
Pollen deposition on
drums by impact on
a suction system
Preparation of daily
and hourly samples
Observation with
optical microscope
Pollen identification
and counting
MA
N 6
/05 d
2M
AN
6/0
5 d
2
MA
N 6
/05 d
2M
AN
6/0
5 d
2
Hourly data
24 verticals lines every 2 mm
Daily data
4 horitzontal lines
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
Airborne pollen and instruments
Pollen columnar properties: MPL lidar
MPL (part of MPLNet)
Wavelengths (emission) 532 nm
Wavelengths (reception) 532 nm+ 532 nm cross pol.
PRF 2500 Hz
Typical temporal resolution
30 s
Vertical resolution 15, 30 or 75 m
Max. adquisition range > 20 km
Products β532, δp,532
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
Airborne pollen and instruments
Pollen columnar properties: methodology
Principle:
δp
z( ) 1
( )1 ( )
p
bck pol
pol p
pol bck
zCR z
z
( ) ( ) ( )p
pol polz CR z z
δp(z)
Pollen contribution ratio (Shimuzu et al., 2004)
If δp(z)=δpbck(z), CRpol(z)=0
If δp(z)=δppol(z), CRpol(z)=1
Pollen backscatter coefficient:
THE 27-31 MARCH, 2015, POLLINATION EVENT03
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
The 27-31 March, 2015, pollination event
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12
Po
llen
co
nce
ntr
atio
n (
m-3
h-1
)Platanus
Pinus
Total
27 28 29 30 31
Airborne pollenconcentration
Profiles of total volume
depolarizationratio
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
The 27-31 March, 2015, pollination event
27 28 29 30 31Total
Total
r = 0,81 0,45 0,68 0,00 0,14
Difference between δV and δp r-values< 0,12
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
The 27-31 March, 2015, pollination event
• Strong correlation of total pollen concentration with wind speed, temperature
• Anti-correlation with RH
r=-0.18
r=0.95
r=0.82
PLATANUS AND PINUSTRANSPORT SIMULATION04
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
Platanus and Pinus transport simulation
NMMB/MONARCH: online air quality forecast system developed at BSC (Pérez et al., 2011; Jorba et al., 2012; Spada et al., 2013; Badia et al., 2017)
• Meteorology: NMMB (Janjic and Gall, 2012)• Aerosol scheme: bulk Pinus and Platanus aerosols• Transport: online scheme, same advection-diffusion as NMMB• Emission data: Pinus: Cartography of habitats of Catalonia (CREAF)
Platanus: Barcelona's City Hall Open Data Service
• Horizontal Resolution: 1 km x 1 km• Vertical Resolution: 48 hybrid sigma-pressure• Top Atmosphere: 50 hPa• Time step: 2 s• Meteorological initial conditions: NCEP Final Analysis
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
Platanus and Pinus transport simulation
Pollen properties:
Pinus Platanus
Grain diameter (μm) 59 19Jackson & Lyford, 1999 Zhang et al., 2014
Density (kg/m3) 560 920 Jackson & Lyford, 1999 Jackson & Lyford, 1999
Zhang et al., 2014
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
Platanus and Pinus transport simulation
V0 (first guess) V1 (low) V2 (high)
Emission factor(g/day/tree)
Model
Pinus
Platanus
Constant
81(Parker and Blush, 1996)
4,9(Brichi et al., 2000)
Wind effect scale factor
Zhang et al., 2014
81(Parker and Blush, 1996)4,9(Brichi et al., 2000)
Wind effect scale factor
Zhang et al., 2014
252,22(Tormo et al., 1996)
120(Tormo et al., 1996)
Sedimentationspeed(cm/s)
Ref.
PinusPlatanus
Pérez et al., 20112,170,62
Jackson & Lyford, 1999
Zhang et al., 20142,81
Jackson & Lyford, 1999
Zhang et al., 2014
2,81
Initialization Day0 Day-7 Day-7
σ*=0,6 m2/gLR=50 sr
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
Platanus and Pinus transport simulation
-
10,00
20,00
30,00
40,00
50,00
60,00
70,00
80,00
90,00
100,00
27-3 28-3 29-3 30-3 31-3 1-4
Co
nce
ntr
atio
n (μ
g/m
3)
2015
Obs
V0
-
10,00
20,00
30,00
40,00
50,00
60,00
70,00
80,00
90,00
100,00
27-3 28-3 29-3 30-3 31-3 1-4
Co
nce
ntr
atio
n (μ
g/m
3)
2015
Obs
V0
V2
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
Platanus and Pinus transport simulation
Platanus – 27MPinus – 27M
0 5 10 15 20 250
10
20
30
40
50
60
Time (UT)
Co
ncen
tra
tio
n (
g·m
-3)
Pinus
Obs
V0
V1
V2
10-1
100
101
102
10-1
100
101
102
Pinus
Observed Pinus conc. (g·m-3)
Mo
de
led
Pin
us c
onc.
(g
·m-3
)
V0
V1
V2
10-1
100
101
102
10-1
100
101
102
Pinus
Observed Pinus conc. (g·m-3)
Mo
de
led
Pin
us c
onc.
(g
·m-3
)
V0
V1
V2
0 5 10 15 20 250
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Time (UT)
Co
ncen
tra
tio
n (
g·m
-3)
Platanus
Obs
V0
V1
V2
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
Platanus and Pinus transport simulation
Platanus – 29MPinus – 29M
0 5 10 15 20 250
10
20
30
40
50
60
Time (UT)
Co
ncen
tra
tio
n (
g·m
-3)
Pinus
Obs
V0
V1
V2
10-1
100
101
102
10-1
100
101
102
Pinus
Observed Pinus conc. (g·m-3)
Mo
de
led
Pin
us c
onc.
(g
·m-3
)
V0
V1
V2
0 5 10 15 20 250
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Time (UT)
Co
ncen
tra
tio
n (
g·m
-3)
Platanus
Obs
V0
V1
V2
10-4
10-3
10-2
10-1
100
101
102
10-4
10-3
10-2
10-1
100
101
102
Platanus
Observed Platanus conc. (g·m-3)
Mo
de
led
Pla
tan
us c
on
c. (g
·m-3
)
V0
V1
V2
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
Platanus and Pinus transport simulation
Total– 27M
V0 V1 V2
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.70
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Pollen back. coef. (Mm-1sr-1)
Altitu
de (
km
ag
l)
Obs
V0
V1
V2
Time (hour)
Altitu
de (
km
ag
l)
QL - Model-Obs. difference (Mm-1·sr-1)
0 5 10 15 20
0.5
1
1.5
2
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
Time (hour)
Altitu
de (
km
ag
l)
QL - Model-Obs. difference (Mm-1·sr-1)
0 5 10 15 20
0.5
1
1.5
2
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
Time (hour)
Altitu
de (
km
ag
l)
QL - Model-Obs. difference (Mm-1·sr-1)
0 5 10 15 20
0.5
1
1.5
2
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
Total– 29M
V0 V1 V20 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.70
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Pollen back. coef. (Mm-1sr-1)
Altitu
de (
km
ag
l)
Obs
V0
V1
V2
Time (hour)
Altitu
de (
km
ag
l)
QL - Model-Obs. difference (Mm-1·sr-1)
0 5 10 15 20
0.5
1
1.5
2
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
Time (hour)
Altitu
de (
km
ag
l)
QL - Model-Obs. difference (Mm-1·sr-1)
0 5 10 15 20
0.5
1
1.5
2
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
Time (hour)
Altitu
de (
km
ag
l)
QL - Model-Obs. difference (Mm-1·sr-1)
0 5 10 15 20
0.5
1
1.5
2
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
Platanus and Pinus transport simulation
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
27 March /27 March /27 March /27 March /28 March /28 March /28 March /28 March /29 March /29 March /29 March /29 March /30 March /30 March /30 March /30 March /31 March /31 March /31 March /31 March /
CONCLUSIONS
05
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
Conclusions
• Extremely strong pollination event (Platanus peak > 4700 m-3)• δV is a good proxy for conc., almost as good as δp → simple 1β+1δ
systems can do the job to track airborne pollen (not mixed)
• Key factors for pollen modelisation:• Emission maps (position and tree density)• Emission flux for Pinus and Platanus (high uncertainty)• Emission scheme: constant vs. wind driven, dependency of other
meteorological variables (T, RH)• Sedimentation speed• Size of the regional domain considered → recirculation, nesting
domains• Different pollen types respond differently to these factors
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente
¡Gracias!#conama2018
14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
Motivation and objectives
• Investigate with an air quality forecast system the factors responsible of:• Pollen release• Pollen dispersion/transport
• By evaluating the model performances against near-surface concentrationand backscatter coefficient profile measurements
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14º Congreso Nacional del Medio Ambiente. #Conama2018
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