Viernes ecpa
Transcript of Viernes ecpa
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Ana P. BarrosDuke University
Lima, March 22, 2013
El Nexo Agua-Energia-Desarollo: riesgos naturales y interacciones entre infraestrutura, clima y paisaje enun marco de adaptación a multiples escalas
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Observaciones - Rigorosas, Consistentes, Dense, Extensas
Analísis y Interpretación – Representación y modelos
Integración de datos e física >>> Contexto de riesgo
Evaluar Vulnerabilidades , “Breaking Points”
DescobertaCiencia
Pilares de Adaptación
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Nilometer 622-1284 A.D.
From Koutsoyannis, 2004
(Mandelbrot and Wallis 1977, Hurst 1951, Barros and Evans 1996)
The idea that persistent persistent (0.5<H<1.0)(0.5<H<1.0)movements in a time seriestime series tend to be part of largertrendstrends and cyclescycles more often than they are completely random.
H=0.91
H=0.5
Ciclos Climáticos…Dos series con media y varianciaestadísticas iguales
“Ruído Blanco”
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Renaissance
Y de un punto de vista regional, local que significa? Revolución
Industrial
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PresaConstruída
Note la influencia de la duración del periodo de observación
Analísis de Riesgo – Infraestrutura
?
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“Gran Muralla Andina”
Finer and Jenkins, 2012
Environmental Services
Conectividad HidrologicaConectividad Ecologica Material (Sedimentos, Nutrientes)
Sustainability /Climate
India: Plans to build 292 hydroelectric dams in the Himalayas
Green, Renewable Energy
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HidroAgoyan Dam, Pastaza River, Ecuador
Endicamientos Naturales : Formación y Falla
Penna e al. 2012)
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New et al. 2001
Changing Mix of Stations: Raingauge Stations Over Time
(NOAA GHCN Dataset)
Courtesy David Easterling, NOAA- NCDC
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GHCN-Monthly Version 3.0• The dataset for global climate monitoring and assessment
– 7280 mean temperature stations; >20,000 precipitation stations– Global coverage from 1880 to present– GHCN-M Version 3 released in 2010 (temperature only)
Courtesy David Easterling, NOAA- NCDC
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Barros 2012
a)
Estaciones hydrométricas
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1 – Africa2 – Asia3 – South America4 – North America, Central America, and the Caribbean5 – Europe6 – South-West Pacific
WMO Region
Elev
ation
H [m
]
Barros 2012
b)
Estaciones hydrométricas
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Hydrometeorology of Mountainous RegionsMaritime vs Continental Tropical Monsoon RegimesMid-Latitude Seasonal RegimesGlobal to Regional Scale ControlsSummit to Sea and Sea To Summit
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From Clouds to River NetworksFrom Clouds to River Networks1st Principal Component of Cloudiness (IR Brightness)
Giovannetone and Barros 2008 and 2009
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Warm Rain
“Deep” Convection
DaytimeDaytimeTRMM Central AndesTRMM Central Andes
Giovannettone and Barros, 2009
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Shallow Embedded Convection
NighttimeNighttime
TRMM Central AndesTRMM Central Andes
Giovannettone and Barros, 2009
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TRMM PFs December 1998-2010
Wet season
1st order streams
3500m
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Ridge-Valley, ET feedback,and
Mountain-Valley Circulations
Rampanelli et al. (2004)
Sunrise Forenoon
Noon Later Afternoon
Evening Early Night
Middle of NightLate Night to Morning
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Lowman and Barros, 2013
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Class Elevation Range (m)
1 6000-36002 3599-25003 2499-22004 2199-15005 1499-13006 1299-9007 899-5008 499-0
AGU Poster EP32B-0737 Deitz et al. 2011
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AGU Poster EP32B-0737 Deitz et al. 2011
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First Observations Central Andes
San Pedro, Andes
20122011Rio Kospiñata
Financiado por la NSF
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Precipitable water
Precipitable water from ERA-Interim 2011
ACRGs installed in 2011
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Erlingis (2012)
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Moisture transport – Andes
Role of vegetation/ET in “harvesting” atmospheric moisture???
Vertically integrated moisture flux
Verano Invierno
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Weak LLJ Daily Precipitation
TRMM 3B42
ERA-Interim
NCEP-FNL
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NCEP/NCAR ReanalysisWater Vapor Transport
1951-2010
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Necessidades Fundamentales de Investigación
Monitoreo
Organización the Processos y Flujos en el Paisaje en Multiples Escalas
Recursos Riesgos Sostenibilidad
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