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Introduction to the climate prediction .net project
and progress so far
Climate prediction .net in schools teachingresources and how to join in
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The Day After Tomorrow
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Climate prediction .net is an ambitious new scientific experiment aiming to producethe most comprehensive probability based forecast of 21 st Century climate ever
attempted.
The experiment should give policymakers a better scientific basis for addressing one of the biggest
potential global problems of the 21 stcentury.
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In the light of new evidence and taking into account the remaining uncertainties,
most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been dueto the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations
Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report, 2001
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We can produce very detailed predictions of climate change with no idea of how reliable they
might be
2080temperaturechange (K)
2080precipitationchange (%)
Source: Mat Collins, Hadley Centre
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Sources of UncertaintyBasic sources of uncertainty in climate forecasts: Incomplete knowledge of the initial state of the system Uncertainty in future forcings
Uncertain models - poor/incomplete representation of the physicalprocesses that govern the climate
The climateprediction.net approach to forecast uncertainty climate prediction .net targets uncertainty in the initial state of the
atmosphere by running the same model several (~10) times with differentinitial states (initial condition ensembles) climate prediction .net targets uncertainty in future forcings by running
many different solar, sulphate and greenhouse scenarios (forcingensembles)
climate prediction .net targets model uncertainty by altering the modelsphysics (perturbed physics ensembles)
To systematically explore model uncertainty requires large numbers of simulations, due to the non-linear interaction of parameters. Hence theneed for climate prediction .net to carry out such an ensemble.
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Double Pendulum
Courtesy of Ross Bannister
Initial speed400.1 degrees/ sec
Initial speed400.0 degrees/ sec
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Each Model is Unique
Standardmodelset-up
Perturbedphysics
ensemble
Initialconditionensemble
BoundaryConditions
(forcing)ensemble
Uni q
u em o d el
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Experiment DesignExptsExpts 1: GCM with1: GCM with thermodynamic oceanthermodynamic ocean . (HadSM3). (HadSM3)
Aim: To identify parameter combinations which have little effect Aim: To identify parameter combinations which have little effect on theon themean climate but a large effect on climate sensitivity.mean climate but a large effect on climate sensitivity.Evaluate perturbations to atmosphere/ocean fluxes.Evaluate perturbations to atmosphere/ocean fluxes.
15 yr spin-up 15 yr, base case CO 2
15 yr, 2 x CO 2
Derived fluxes
Diagnostics from final8 yrs.
Calibration
Control
Double CO2
ExptExpt 2:2: Fully coupled modelFully coupled model . (HadCM3. (HadCM3 -- the coupled model)the coupled model)Distribute preDistribute pre --packaged simulations of 1950packaged simulations of 1950 --2050.2050.
DownweightDownweight or eliminate runs which compare badly with observations.or eliminate runs which compare badly with observations.ReRe--distribute the surviving versions to simulate 2000distribute the surviving versions to simulate 2000 --2050.2050.
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Experiment 1
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Results so Far
1000 bigger ensemblethan has ever beenachieved so far
Sampled more extreme
sensitivities than haveever been seen before
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Client and Simple Visualisation
Watch the modelled climate change over hours,days, weeks
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Student Visualisation Interface
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Warm front Warm front
Good day tostay in bed
Treacherousdriving
conditions
11 th-18 th December 1828, London
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Schools Materials 14 + U.K. Syllabus specific materials Reproduce existing materials in a format suitable
for classroom teaching Easy to use for teachers Encourage schools to join the experiment Unique, distinct and genuinely useful
Models and Prediction rather than climatechange
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For younger students
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For older studentsVariety of simple climate models involving dice, excel, bottles of water, calculators..
Discussion excercises, role playing
Investigating weather and climate
Analysis of numbers, data sets..
Exploring climate prediction .net results
The Earth
incomingsolar radiation
outgoingradiation
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http://www.climateprediction.net/schools
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Why is a bucket of water like the climate?
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v2=2gH
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A simple climate model
The Earth
incomingsolar radiation
outgoingradiation
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Earth temperature
282.5
283
283.5
284
284.5
285
285.5
286286.5
287
0 5 10 15 20
year
t e m p e r a t u r e
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Free to the first 10 teachers to sendme a (completed) feedback form
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