Metodos de calculo de la CNAMetodo graficoAjuste lineal (minimos cuadrados)Ajuste no lineal a) Ajuste exponencialAjuste no lineal b) Ajuste logaritmicoAjuste no lineal c) Ajuste potencialPoblacion actual al 2012Poblacion actual 2012FormulasformulasFormulasFormulasP= a+bttPiti*Pit^2Pi^2P= a*e^bttPiti*Piln tiln ti*(Pi)ln ti^2Pi^2P=at^btPiti*Pit^2lnPilnti*lnPilnPi^2lntlnt^2198010355Aos a proyectar =20Y=mx+b198010355205029003920400107226025a=e^((lnPi-bti)/(N))tPiti*Pit^2lnPiti*lnPilnPi^2P=a+b(lntf)198010355205029007.590852123778603.273740795357.6210359637107226025a=e^((lnPi-bti)/(N))(el mismo de ajuste exponencial)1980103552050290039204009.245224773870.179134108485.47418111867.590852123757.6210359637Poblcion 2012rmediaeliminando mayor y menorP2030=199012837Ao =2030a=(Pi-bti)/N199012837255456303960100164788569b=((NtilnPi)-(tilnPi))/((Nti^2)(ti^2))1980103552050290039204009.245224773818305.545052182885.4741811186a=(Pi-blnt)/(n)199012837255456307.595889917797508.438873752957.6975436421164788569b=((Nlnti*lnPi)-(lntilnPi))/((Nlnti^2)(lnti^2))1990128372554563039601009.460086905171.857778743189.49324425187.595889917757.6975436421Metodo Grafico208270.992187321970019216200014605b=(NTiPi-ti*Pi)/raiz(NTi^2-Ti^2)200014605292100004000000213306025t=ti1990128372554563039601009.460086905118825.57294111989.4932442518b=(nlntPilnt*Pi)/(n(lnt)^2(lnt^2))200014605292100007.6009024595111011.18042161257.7737181995213306025t=ti2000146052921000040000009.589119214872.885959824891.95120731617.600902459557.7737181995Ajuste linealMinimos cuadrados208270.9977020803201016640201016640334464004040100276889600(ti)^2=636804002000146052921000040000009.589119214819178.238429643791.9512073161201016640334464007.6058900011126562.00961752457.8495627081276889600(lnti)^2=923.76693952442010166403344640040401009.719564714473.925940075794.46993823697.605890001157.8495627081Ajuste no linealAjuste exponencial174540.9911434321203020826.9Donde:total79805443710870493015920600762210219(lnPi)^2=1445.06386209352010166403344640040401009.719564714419536.325075894294.4699382369(lnti)^2=923.766939524479805443710870493030.393534502413684.902653684230.9418605134762210219(lnPi)^2=1445.0638620935total7980544371087049301592060038.0139956081288.8488127519361.388570923430.393534502230.9418605134Ajuste no linealAjuste logaritmico171070.9978082092P= poblacion a determinar(Pi)^2=2963386969Ao a proyectar2012total7980544371087049301592060038.013995608175845.6814988396361.3885709234(Pi)^2=2963386969Ao a proyectar2012Ajuste no linealAjuste potencial174450.9914114434t= Aos (Tiempo a proyectar)(ti)^2=63680400n=4n=4b=411464.516427534n=493660N= numeros pares a ordenarb=206.23e=2.718281828n=4lntf= 2012a=-3112855.99409749e=2.718281828Numero de mtodos5a=-397819.6P=17107.0710608852N=4P2030=20827.30b=1.6E-02b=3.1E+01Coeficciente de correlacion ( r )Aos a proyectar2030P2030=20827b=0.0155205213Coeficciente de correlacion ( r )b=3.1E+01Coeficciente de correlacion ( r )Coeficciente de correlacion ( r )a=0.0000000005r=0.9911434321a=0=r=0.9914114434
=r=0.9977020803e^((lnPi-bti)/(N))3.6E+13=r=0.9978082092
P2030=17454.41P2030=1.74E+04P2030=17454P2030=17445Metodo graficoAjuste linealAjuste no lineal a) Ajuste exponencialAjuste no lineal b) Ajuste logaritmicoAjuste no lineal c) Ajuste potencialPoblacion actual al 2022Poblacion proyectada a 2022FormulasformulasFormulasFormulasP= a+bttPiti*Pit^2Pi^2P= a*e^bttPiti*Piln tiln ti*(Pi)ln ti^2Pi^2P=at^btPiti*Pit^2lnPilnti*lnPilnPi^2lntlnt^2198010355Y=mx+b198010355205029003920400107226025a=e^((lnPi-bti)/(N))tPiti*Pit^2lnPiti*lnPilnPi^2P=a+b(lntf)198010355205029007.590852123778603.273740795357.6210359637107226025a=e^((lnPi-bti)/(N))(el mismo de ajuste exponencial)1980103552050290039204009.245224773870.179134108485.47418111867.590852123757.6210359637Poblcion 2022rmediaeliinando mayor y menorP2012=199012837a=(Pi-bti)/N199012837255456303960100164788569b=((NtilnPi)-(tilnPi))/((Nti^2)(ti^2))1980103552050290039204009.245224773818305.545052182885.4741811186a=(Pi-blnt)/(n)199012837255456307.595889917797508.438873752957.6975436421164788569b=((Nlnti*lnPi)-(lntilnPi))/((Nlnti^2)(lnti^2))1990128372554563039601009.460086905171.857778743189.49324425187.595889917757.6975436421Metodo Grafico32000.9928164501955518002200014605b=(NTiPi-ti*Pi)/raiz(NTi^2-Ti^2)200014605292100004000000213306025t=ti1990128372554563039601009.460086905118825.57294111989.4932442518b=(nlntPilnt*Pi)/(n(lnt)^2(lnt^2))200014605292100007.6009024595111011.18042161257.7737181995213306025t=ti2000146052921000040000009.589119214872.885959824891.95120731617.600902459557.7737181995Ajuste linealMinimos cuadrados191770.9977020803201016640201016640334464004040100276889600(ti)^2=636804002000146052921000040000009.589119214819178.238429643791.9512073161201016640334464007.6058900011126562.00961752457.8495627081276889600(lnti)^2=923.76693952442010166403344640040401009.719564714473.925940075794.46993823697.605890001157.8495627081Ajuste no linealAjuste exponencial203850.9911434321201219216Donde:total79805443710870493015920600762210219(lnPi)^2=1445.06386209352010166403344640040401009.719564714419536.325075894294.4699382369(lnti)^2=923.766939524479805443710870493030.393534502413684.902653684230.9418605134762210219(lnPi)^2=1445.0638620935total7980544371087049301592060038.0139956081288.8488127519361.388570923430.393534502230.9418605134Ajuste no linealAjuste logaritmico191470.997808209220223200P= poblacion a determinarPi^2=2963386969Ao a proyectar2022total7980544371087049301592060038.013995608175845.6814988396361.3885709234(Pi)^2=2963386969Ao a proyectar2022Ajuste no linealAjuste potencial203400.9914114434t= Aos (Tiempo a proyectar)ti^2=63680400n=4b=411464.516427534n=482249N= numeros pares a ordenarb=206.23e=2.718281828n=4lntf= 2022a=-3112855.99409749e=2.718281828Numero de etodos5a=-397819.6P2022=19147.0579684675N=4P2022=19177.46b=1.6E-02b=3.1E+01Coeficciente de correlacion ( r )Aos a proyectar2022P2022=19177b=1.6E-02Coeficciente de correlacion ( r )b=3.1E+01si determinamos la poblacion 2012 con respecto a los resultados obtenidos de los valores de corelacion la poblacion seria de 3245 ya que el valor obtenido de r para el ajuste logaritmico es el mas sercano a 1. Y si hacemos una evaluacion con todos los valores btenidos para las poblaciones en 2012 la poblacion seria 3506 habitantes.Coeficciente de correlacion ( r )Coeficciente de correlacion ( r )a=0.0000000005r=0.9911434321a=0=r=0.9914114434
=r=0.9977020803e^((lnPi-bti)/(N))4.3E+13=r=0.9978082092Tambien podemos evaluar 18002+19147185752P2022=2.04E+04P2022=2.03E+04P2022=20385P2022=20340y ontener un promedio de los 2 resultados esperados.
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