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The Warsaw, Copenhagen, Paris
UN Climate Change Conferences
Where is the climate treaty?
Jan W. Dash, PhD
Climate Statement Chair, CSD CoNGO
Climate Science Rapid Response Team Matchmaker
Climate Initiative Chair, UU-UNO
19 November 2013
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Recent Global Warming is due to Human
Generated Greenhouse Gases CO2...20,000 years
of data;
CO2 spikeis recent,
continuing.
IPCC 2007
Science Vol I
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Model Forecasts depend on Human
Behavior (Scenarios)
IPCC 2007
Science Vol I
Now appear
conservative
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World-Wide Climate Impacts
! We are seeing bad impacts NOW! Impacts will get FAR WORSEif we do not act! No place to hide.! Increased conflict (wars): National security! Economic/finance disruption: Breakdown?! Disasters worse due to Climate Change:
Water shortages, crop failures, intense fires,droughts, disease increase, flooding, species
extermination, extreme weather, sea level rise,
heat waves, precipitation patterns changed
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Some progress. Big problems.
! Need to recognize extent of problem! Climate disinformation: fossil fuel / libertarians
! Need to understand Risk Management! Long term solution vs. short term expediency
! Need change (fossil fuel to renewables)! Technical / political / economic / psychological
! Need action on all levels from local to global! No silver bullet solution exists! Individual, NGOs, business, cities, governments! International
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UN Climate Change Conference
COP19 Warsaw, Poland 2013
November 11-22
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UN Annual Climate Conferences
! Copenhagen Warsaw Paris ! Goal: FAB International Climate Accord
! FAB = Fair Ambitious Binding! Replace Kyoto Protocol (was only first step)! Copenhagen Accord (2009)! Steady but slow progress: Cancun, Durban, Doha! Warsaw: expect marginal progress (ends Friday)! Commitment is to finalize treaty in Paris (2015)
! Then ratify the treaty by all countries ! Then implement the treaty
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Important Negotiation Bottleneck:
Cumulative vs. Current Emissions
! Cumulative CO2: Developed countriesresponsible for most CO2 in atmosphere!
CO2 stays in the atmosphere for a long time! Emphasized by developing countries
! Current CO2: Developing countryemissions rapidly increasing (China now #1)! Emphasized by developed countries! Cumulative (developing) > 50% of total in10 years
! => TREATY GRIDLOCK
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Cumulative CO2 problem
! US, EU 57%, China 7% in 2000 (but developing nationscumulative CO2 will be over 50% of total by 2020)
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Other Major Negotiation Issues
! Economic growth for underdeveloped countries! Energy parity (India ) vs. CO2 emissions
! Who pays for what? When?!
$100 Billion/yr by 2020 fund where is the $?! Contention over reparations due to climate damage! Other climate finance issues (Carbon tax?)
! Verification and enforcement of accord terms! Teeth needed for violations
! International UN vs. Bilateral Negotiations
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What do you see at an international
climate conference?! 10,000 people
! Energy, excitement! Great learning experience
! Meet people, organize for later action! Many talks, exhibits, side events! City events" Photo exhibit 100 places and climate change
! You dont see the famous (cant get in)
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CSD Climate Statement
Personal Copenhagen Story! Denmark Prime Minister
! Got the CSD statement to him (bodyguards)! Warsaw: Statement was distributed! Looking for volunteers for 2014 (Lima) to
help distribute CSD Climate Statement
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More on UU-UNO Climate Portal
climate.uu-uno.org
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Bottom Line
Climate: big problem, we can solve it! Human activities causing global warming! Climate impacts bad, can become far worse!
Climate links to many other issues! We are arrayed against powerful opponents! NOTtoo late to prevent worst impacts! Vision: Renewables + climate treaty +
!Youcan help1411/22/13 Copright Jan W. Dash
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Thank You
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