Post on 27-May-2020
Predicciones de Tecnología, Medios y Telecomunicaciones2015
Craig WiggintonNelson ValeroCraig WiggintonNelson Valero
#PrediccionesTMT
Descubra lo que viene en Tecnología, Medios y Telecomunicaciones
3© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
3. La impresión 3D es una revolución, pero no la revolución que imaginamos
5. Videos de corta duración: un futuro, pero no el futuro de la televisión
4. Las baterías de los smartphones sin grandes avances
6. La “generación que no gasta” está gastando mucho en contenidos
1. Internet de las cosas es para las cosas no para las personas
2. Drones: perfil elevado y de nicho
7. El papel está vivo y coleando – al menos en el caso de los libros
8. Mil millones de reposiciones de smartphones
9. El cisma de la conectividad se agranda: la creciente brecha en las velocidades de la banda ancha
10. Los pagos con el móvil “sin contacto” (por fin) toman impulso.
6© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
El Internet de las cosas (IoT) es para las cosas, no para las personas
• El ahorro de tiempo o tarea eliminada a través del IoT es a menudo trivial.
• Hay un ahorro de costos reales, pero estos son mínimos.
• Actualmente algunos costos son imposibles de asumir (p.e. bombillas conectadas con un costo de U$D400; las no conectadas cuestan U$D 50).
• El IoT completo es a veces un exceso.
• Los seres humanos son resistentes a modificar el comportamiento para adaptarse a los sistemas (por ejemplo, los contadores inteligentes no parecen cambiar la conducta).
El Internet de las cosas (IoT) es para las cosas, no para las personasAbundan los consumidores de soluciones IoT, pero son un pequeño % del valor
• Habrá decenas de miles de productos de consumidores de productos IoT.
• … pero serán sólo una décima parte del valor del mercado empresarial.
7© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
El valor total del mercado de aviones no tripulados será equivalente al de un jet de pasajeros
de tamaño medio9© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
Drones: perfil elevado y de nicho
Drones: perfil elevado y de nichoLos factores clave que probablemente limiten la demanda en el corto y mediano plazo
• El control puede perderse incluso en condiciones cotidianas.• El GPS se utiliza para trazar el rumbo del Drone, pero el GPS fácilmente se puede
perder (por ejemplo, las nubes, por lluvia, dejando al drone volando a ciegas)• Puede considerarse antisocial y una invasión de la privacidad.
Accidentes
• Los controles pueden cubrir una serie de acciones para vehículos aéreos no tripulados (altura, distancia).
• Los vehículos aéreos no tripulados pueden ser integrados a los sistemas de control de vuelo actuales.
• Se pueden aplicar multas.
Regulación incierta
• Los drones no sustituirán a los vehículos existentes.• Viable para la entrega de paquetes de alto valor, ligeros y paquetes compactos.• Costos de entrega para 10 kilometros = U$D 8 - U$D 12.• Los drones necesitan mucho apoyo humano a su alrededor.
Empresas desplegarán vehículos aéreos no tripulados por docenas, no por miles
10© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
Las ganancias de las baterías nuevas o más grandes tienden a ser compensadas por un mayor uso
Las baterías de los smartphones sin grandes avances ¿Como mejorar la vida de la batería del smartphone?
13© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
Use un teléfono con una pantalla grande (batería más grande)
Cargue frecuentemente y nunca deje que la batería se descargue completamente.
Reemplace la batería por una nueva.
Mantenga la luz de fondo lo mas tenue posible
Utilice el teléfono en una red relativamente no congestionada
Videos de corta duración: con futuro, pero no el futuro de la televisión.
15© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
16© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
Videos de corta duración: con futuro pero no el futuro de la televisión.
Videos de corta duración: con futuro pero no el futuro de la televisión.
Larga duración Corta duración
Presupuesto Varios millones $ por hora $ miles
GénerosDrama, telenovelas, entretenimiento familiar, deporte, “realities”.
Música, juegos de video, clips de televisión, trailers de películas, noticias de entretenimiento.
Visto en Set de televisión. Portátil, tablet, smartphone
PublicidadPausas con múltiples anuncios.
Un breve anuncio antes de ver el video.
17© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
El impreso sigue vivo ycoleando; al menos en elcaso de los libros.
18© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
El impreso sigue vivo y coleando; al menos en el caso de los libros
La impresión dominará las ventas de libros, incluso en mercados con alta penetración de dispositivos digitales.
eReaders
16%
Tablets Smartphones Portátil.
P: En su caso, cuales de las opciones usted posee y a cuales tiene acceso inmediato?
19© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
44% 74% 79%
En algunos mercados de impresión, comolos periódicos, la mayor parte de demandaes impulsada por los antiguos consumidoresque crecieron en el mundo de la impresión.
Este no es el caso de los libros , la aversión de lageneración del milenio a los CD, DVD, periódicosimpresos y revistas no se extiende a la impresión delibros.
El impreso sigue vivo y coleando; al menos en el caso de los librosLos jóvenes lectores aún están leyendo, en impresos; y lo están haciendo con gran intensidad. En una encuesta realizada en Estados Unidos en septiembre de 2013, del 16 al 34% dijo que esto es lo que les apasiona:
25% 38% 25% 16%3%
Casi el 50% de la generación del milenio, coincide en que los libros electrónicos
nunca tomarán el lugar de los impresos.
20© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
También puede ser el caso deque los libros físicos sonsuperiores cuando se trata deretención de la información.
Deloitte’s Global Mobile Consumer Survey shows smartphones have become indispensable to our everyday livesQ. Typically, how long is the interval between you waking up and looking at your smartphone for the first time (not including turning off your phone's alarm clock)?
Interval between waking up and checking smartphones
90%
ImmediatelyAll : 14% 18-24 : 24%65-75: 4%
Within 5 minutesAll : 39%18-24 : 52%65-75 : 19%
Within 30 minutesAll : 72%18-24 : 83%65-75 : 54%
Within 1 hourAll : 86%18-24 : 93%65-75 : 78%
Within 15 minutesAll : 57%18 -24 : 69%65-75 : 40%
One hour of waking up
Source: US edition, Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey December, 2014Base: All respondents with a smartphone, US (1,167), those aged 18-24, (208) Those aged 65-75 (99)
24© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
Q8. What is your main device for accessing the internet (when not at work)?
Smartphone47%
Laptop20%
Tablet17%
Standard phone13%
Other3%
Note: Mobile can be a smartphone, feature phone or tabletSource: Colombia edition, Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey, August 2014Base: All respondents (1,000)
Of those with an internet-connected mobile* device, most Colombians see the smartphone as their primary device for Internet connectivity
25© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
Smartphone’s share of units and revenue expected to continue growing
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Smartphones PCs TV sets Tablets Video game consoles
Consumer electronics revenues, 2013-2018, $ billion s, global
Source: Deloitte, 2014, based on public and proprietary sources
26© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
Device purchase intent in the next 12 months
32%
21%19%
5% 5% 5%2%
39%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Smartphone Laptop Tablet Smart watch Fitnesstracker
eReader Smartglasses
None ofthese
Device replacement cycle for smartphones is the shortest relative to other devices
27© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
Bottom line
The smartphone is the most successful consumer device ever.
Challenges for smartphone vendors: retaining loyalty, taking share in a mature market, maintaining margin, determining which functionality their customers want.
Vendors will need to:
• Increment the range of intangible factors used to enhance their devices appeal: technical support, data transfer, perceived security of client data, caliber of app store.
• Ensure that all functionality addresses current needs and anticipates latent ones.
• Continue to work closely with carriers.
The selection process for enterprise smartphones can be more complex than for consumers:
• Some functionality may be not considered relevant from the COI point of view, but it is of interest to the HR department.
• Some phones may be of particular interest to different companies with different needs (waterproof devices for field workers, fingerprint readers and NFC chips for additional security).
One billion smartphone upgrades
28© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
Consumers
30 million individuals may opt to pay using their phone instead of a contactless card.
The year of mobile in-store payments has been years in the preparation
Smartphone users
Have already submitted their credit card data
to a range of vendors
Are used to the idea of
contactless payments
using credit or debit cards
Are familiar with fingerprint readers (border
control, smartphones)
31© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
Source: A Wave of Digital Change: Trends in Digital Innovation in 2013. Deloitte in association with Allegro, Payu.
Source : BBVA - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. a multinational Spanish banking group
Payment value per user estimated to triple from 2009 to 2015…to >$100 per month
Value of global mobile payments
Smartphones are shaping a new world of payments
Global mobile payment user base
32© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
Usage of smartphones for transactions in Colombia is considerably lower than U.S.
50%
37%
14%
7%
37%
27%
12% 14%
7%
61%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Check your bank balance Make an online purchase Transfer money to anotherindividual
Make A Payment In-store None of these
US Colombia
Q. Have you ever used your phone for any of the following? (smartphone users)
Mobile-oriented
Source: US edition, Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey December, 2014 Source: Colombia edition, Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey, August 2014Base: US Smartphone owners (1167), Colombia Smartphone owners (797)
33© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
But Colombians seem to be open to mobile in-store payments, even more than in U.S.Q. If a solution whereby you would be able to pay in shops by using your mobile phone, would become available, would you use it?
18%
11%
45%
26%
Yes, but for small payments only
Yes, regardless of the amount
No
Don't know
All respondents
Source: US edition, Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey December, 2014Source: Colombia edition, Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey, August 2014Base: Smartphone owners who have not used their phone to make a payment in store US (1,080), Colombia (848)
39%
15%
30%
16%
All Respondents
Yes, but for small payments only
Yes, regardless of the amount
No
Don't know
34© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
Younger generations are more inclined to use mPayment solutions and likely to drive future usage
Q. If a solution whereby you would be able to pay in shops by using your mobile phone, would become available, would you use it?
48% 34% 23% 15% 13% 8%
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74
Respondents who would like to use their mobile phon e for in-store payments
Source: US edition, Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey December, 2014Source: Colombia edition, Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey, August 2014Base: Respondents who have not used their phone to make a payment in store (1,546), Colombia (132)
37% 31% 32%
16-24 25-34 35-44
35© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
Consumers are interested in mPayments across a broad swath of everyday activities
26%22% 21%
18% 18% 18% 18% 17% 15%11%
6%
49%
When usingpublic
parking
When usinga gas
station'spay atpumpoption
When usingpublic
transport
To pay forrestaurant
bills
Whenpaying forgroceries
Whenbuying fast-
food
Whenpaying for a
taxi
Coffeeshops
Whenshopping
for clothing
Whileshopping in
a mall
Other I don't know
Q. In which of the following scenarios would you find it beneficial to pay by using your mobile?
Scenarios in which respondents who would find it be neficial to pay by using their mobile
Source: US edition, Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey December, 2014
36© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
Contactless mobile payments (finally) gain momentum
Bottom line
2015 should see strong growth in contactless mobile and card payment usage, but the rise will be from a small base to a slightly less small base.
Financial institutions
• Benefits: additional way to transact, current ecosystem maintenance.
• A cost in terms of commissions.
Retailers
• Benefits: reducing the need to protect customer data, higher speed of contactless transactions, ability to attract consumers with higher disposable incomes, opportunity to provide more personalized experiences (i.e. loyalty schemes).
Handset vendors
• Can differentiate their devices through the inclusion of components that would enable contactless payments.
All players should consider how to make contactless smartphone payments more secure (i.e. using location data collected by smartphones as a security check).
37© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
The connectivity chasms deepen: the growing gap in broadband speeds
38© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
The connectivity chasms deepen: the growing gap in broadband speeds
39© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q22010
Q32010
Q42010
Q12011
Q22011
Q32011
Q42011
Q12012
Q22012
Q32012
Q42012
Q12013
Q22013
Q32013
Q42013
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Ave
rage
dow
nstr
eam
ban
dwid
th,
Mbi
t/s
Axis Title
Fibre DSL Cable
Cable and fiber broadband technologies are getting faster, but ADSL remains at approximately the same speed.
The speed of broadband technologies has increased
Changes in standalone residential bandwidth offered by technology in Mbit/s (Global)
Source: Point Topic 2014
40© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
Differences in broadband speeds by geographical region are likely to continue through 2015 and beyond
41© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania
Mill
ions
Cable Copper FTTH FTTx
Broadband homes by region and by technology
Source: Point Topic 2014
The connectivity chasms deepen: the growing gap in broadband speeds
Bottom line
The gulf between those with access to the fastest broadband speeds and those on basic speeds has widened over recent years; and in the near term looks likely to increase further.
Regulators should:
• Update the definition of broadband regularly. In the future, speed will still be key, but upstream speed will become increasingly important as broadband usage evolves.
• Consider how price per megabit is affected by technology. ADSL households have lower speed and pay more per Mbit/s.
Any private or public entity looking to deliver OTT services should consider what ranges of broadband speeds households are able to get:
• Households wishing to have on-demand video service may need to be offered alternative approaches.
• The richest online shopping experiences require fast broadband connections.
In the long-term there is ample opportunity for more disruptive innovation with broadband delivery, including hot air balloons to deliver high speed connections to rural areas (3G type speed).
42© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.
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© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda. 43© 2015. Deloitte & Touche Ltda.