1011festapetroliv2
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Transcript of 1011festapetroliv2
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S'acaba la festa: la fi del petroli .. barat
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Composició consum energètic: Consum final
Dades, Catalunya 2007, ICAEN
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Composició consum energètic:
Consum primari
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Composició consum energètic:
Per sectors
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“Composició” electricitat:
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la demanda energètica..
En el passat
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
VA
LOR
ES A
BSO
LUT
OS
ELECTRICIDAD PRIMARIA
GAS NATURAL
PETRÓLEO
CARBÓN
MADERA Y BIOMASA
Fuente: J. C. Debeir. “Les servitudes de la puissance.
Une histoire de l’energie”. Paris. Flammarion. / Pedro Prieto.
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VATIOS
PER
CAPITA
12,.000
11.,000
10.,000
9.,000
8.,000
7.,000
6.,000
5.,000
4.,000
3.,000
2.,000
1.,000
0
1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000MILLONES DE HABITANTES
E.E.U.U.
+
CANADÁ A
NTIGUAU.R.S.S.
EUROPA
ASIA PACIFICOY OTROS LATIN
AMERICA CHINAAFRICA INDIA
Consumo promedio mundial: 2,216 vatios
JAPAN
29
5
10
20
13 5 114 3
Porcentaje mundial de consumo de energía primaria
Fuente: British Petroleum. Statistics 2003.
• El “ American way of life” para todosmultiplicaría cinco veces el consumo actual
•El modo de vida europeo para todos duplicaríael consumo actual mundial
•El 5% (los Norteamericanos) consumen casi el 30% de la energía mundial
•El 17% (Primer mundo y antigua URSS) consumen el65% de la energía mundial
està repartida així:
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..i puja amb el nivell de vida
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previsions sobre la demanda futura:
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previsions sobre la demanda futura:
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hem arribat al pic del petroli
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.. i aquests serem els mes perjudicats..
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previsions sobre la demanda /producció energètica:
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.. una mica de geopolítica del petroli
La guerra d’Afganistàn va coïncidir ( a més del 11-S) amb la ruptura de negociacions entre UNOCO i el règim talibà a l’Afganistan per tal de permetre els oleoductes que connectarien les noves regions petrolieresdel Caspi amb el Golf Pèrsic / Oceà Indic
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subsidis a energies fòssils:
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consum de recursos a l’agriculturaEnergía
Insumo Cantidad (kcal) x 1.000
Mano de obra 10 hr 444Maquinaria 55 kg 1.300Gasolina 40 litros 320Diesel 75 litros 750Nitrógeno 160 kg 2.400Fósforo 75 kg 227Potasio 96 kg 155Cal 426 kg 135Semillas 21 kg 540Insecticidas 3 kg 300Herbicidas 8 kg 800Riego 16% 1.750Secado de maíz 4.000 kg 800Electricidad 100.000 kcal 100Transporte 350 kg 97
Total 10.118Rendimiento de maíz 8.000 kg 28.800Coeficiente insumo/producto 2,8 / 1
Cuadro 1. Promedios de aporte de energía para producir una hectárea de maíz en los Estados Unidos, 1997- David Pimentel
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preus del petroli
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I ara, qué fer?
Gestiónar el risc, en particular:
• Risc a la cadena de subministrament• Impacte energètic de l’organització
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Referències:www.crisisenergetica.orgWorld Energy Outlook-2008/2010. International Energy Agencyeurope.theoildrum.com