AHAMHECTHlJECKlifi METO,ll. B ,ll.EMOrPAlilJECKOn CTATli

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AHAMHECTHlJECKlifi METO,ll. B ,ll.EMOrPA<I>lilJECKOn CTATli CTHKE 1 1. 06maSl XapaKTepHCTHKa aHaMHeCTH'IeCKOrO MeTOJl,a nep'e rUl Cb naCeJleHIl5I 1959 r., HeCOMHel:lHO, no6Y.!l.II T K 3l!alfH- 'reJIbHOMY pacillwpeHlIlo yrJly6JleHHbLX Bbi OO P04HblX HCCJleJ.()BBHHH r.eMorpacjHllIecKHx npoueccoB. Oco6emlo BB >KHOe 3HBl{eHJ-fe npHo!5- peTalOT HCCJleAOBallH5I npo u eccoB Bo cnpOH3BoAcTBa HaCeJleUHH )lJl5I 310 M UMH Heo!JXOJJ.I1Mbl He TOJ1bKO .nBHH bl e 06111efr perucTpa- UHH .nBH>KeHHft: HBCeJleml5I. 1:10 H .nonOJ1HHTeJ1bHble MaTepHaJ1bl , co!5- palllll>le Ila OCHOBallHH npllMCHCHH5I CneUHa Jlb HblX Me To.nOB. CTanrCTrf1W':KHe HCCJleJ.OBallli51 callHTapHoro COCT05IHH5I HaCeJlC · HH5I TeCIIO C13513aHbl C II3YQeHIICM npoueCCOB. il1e>K.ny TeM, A2J1eKO He Beer lla liMelOUlJIeC5T AaHHble ocjmUH2J1bHOii perHCTpaUIIH .!l.13H>KeHIi5I naCel1emlH Hero 4HCJlelllIOCTH AOCTaT 04Hbi llJl5T 3T HX Ellle 04eSH.lHee, 'ITO nB 3TH ABHHbIe HeJJb3il onHpaTbCH npn IICC.l'Je.!l.OlW IIH H faKHX CneUH2JlbHbiX 130npOCOB, KaK CBfl3b AeMorpacjJll<!CCKIlX npoueCCOB C npoqJeCCHOHaJ1hHbIMH yCJlo- BHHMH, !5bITOBbIMIl YCJ10BH51MII , aKKJlHMaTI{3a Uu eii nBCf'neIlH5I H T. n. B CBH311 C 3T11M eUJ,e n .ll.Ba.ll.uaTbIX rO.ll.ax lIal\llI 6blJ1 npe.J,JlO>KeH ()C06blii MeTOA CT3TllCTHLJeCKOrO Jl3y'!elllUI neMorpacjJHlleCIUIX npo- ueccoB, nOJ1YllHBWHii Ha3IWI11lC anaMHeCTHLJCCKOrO MeTOJl,a H yc - neIJJIlO npHMelmcMhtt"1 13 IIcc.:te;l.OBalmiL AIlaMHCCTHLJeC1U1ii MeTO;l. naCT B03MO>KHOCTb: B) pCTpocneKTHB- 1I0ro H3YlleHIH1 OCIIOBHbIX npoueCCOB H p5111a cy- 6HOMeTpHLJeCKHX npH3l!al<OB; 6) H3Y l ce1HI5I AeMorpacpH- tjeCKHX npoueccoB B CB5I3J1 C .ll.PYrJl:'1H. SIl3JJeHH51MH nepexoJI K JJ.pyrnM CPOPMBM Tpy.a.a II T . .n.). AIlBMHccTHllecKIIH MeTOJ( OTJll1 l laerC5I KaK cnoc060M CBell.eHIIH, T8K H OGbI LJIIbIlI([[ lIleTOllaMlf pa3pa6oTKIi. OPH 3TO ·M Me- TOlle .nallllbIC 06 HlnepecylOuUlx IiCCJleJJ,OBaTMfl f1BJ1eIl1l5lX nOJIY'IB- lOTCfI nYTeM onpocB onpe.ncJ1elllIoii rpy nn bl uaCeneIlH5I. I OllyGJlIIKoBallo B C60PIIHI\C d1po6neMbi )leMOrpaljlll'lccKOII CTtlTIICTUKH:' nOA peA. aKaA. B. C. Ilcwnlllor;a. [oCCTaTH3Jl3T, M. 1959. CTp. 188-2\0. 130 Oco6eHHOCTb OlipOCa-aHaMHe3a COCTOHT 'B TOM, ll"l1Q (YfMe4BcrCSJ BpeM5I (Jl.2TB) l\a)KAOrO eo 6 blTl lSI , 'I TO p e3KO OT- .11l1 L laeT onpoc-aliaMHe3 OT MeTO.!l.OB onpoca, peKOMeH.a.OBallHhlX l V \eiKnynapoAHOH CTaTHc.TH4eCKOH I\OHcjJepellUHe/1 1890 T'. H UlHPOKO npHMell5lBillHXCH B npaKTHKe caHHTapHo-eTaTHCTH4eCKHX H 3 TlIorpa- (In14eCKHx HCCne.!l.OBaHHif: B .5!KYTCKOi'1 3KCUeJI,HUHH AKBAeM lul HayK 1925-1926 rr' J B n pl1nOMpllbix nepe m lC){ X, D lICeneJl.OBalllHlX ¢PaHUY3 CKOro MHITHCTepCTBa KonOllHH (A66BTY4H, Ka3aHoBa) H T. ,n. Bo Bcex 3THX Hccne.nOBa.HHSlX perHCT.pHpOBaJJOCb TOJJbl(Q o6w.ee 4UCJlO OCHOBllblX ll.eMOrpBcjJH l leCKI1X 51BJleUliH B ce- l1ellHH, B .nallHoi ·j ceMbe, y .ll.allllOro JlHUa H T. A. (' IHeJlO Deex P0>K- lllleno Beex yMep w llx .neTcii H T. n.). 6e3 YKa3aIlH5I AaThl : .THX HBJlelllli, (po>KJl.eIlHH. CMepTIi). 3TO o!5ecucHHS3JIO MaTepH3Jl, J06blTblii C TBKHM TPY.ll.OM, H n03BOJl5l.'1O C.!l.enBTb JlIiWb CI\Y.ll.Hhle I\()CBeHl!ble BbIBO.!l.bt. OPIIBo.nHMble B cafurrBplIO-3THorpacpu'lceKoi"1 JIIiTCpaType .naH- IIbl e 0 pO)I{.naelllOCTli, co6palllible Ha OCHOBe onpOCB, rpewaT, Kat{ nraBlfJJO, IlrIWpHpOBallHei\l B03paCTa 06CJle.J.OBaHHbIX i!{Nl lllHH 13 lIacTynJ1eHH5I C06b1TH5I (pO}KAeHIISl pe6eIlKa). 06bl l ill0 orpaml l lHCBIOTC5I nOKa3BTeJlSlMH cpeJI,HerO ljHCJJa pO>KAe- Illlii (I1ml 6epeMellllOCTeii) H }IUIBbIX npHXO.ll.SlW,HXCH Ha >Kef!- llllfily. TaKHe .!l.81111ble JJI1Wb KOCBeHHO XBpaKTeplt3YIOT pO)l{Jl.aeMOCTb I lIeCKOJlbl{O 60. f lee TOllno ,'leTlIOCTb - ceMeiillocTb . Uallllble 0 KO- .lII l 1eCTBe pO}KAe l lIlii (6epeMNlllocTci1), nOJJYllellllble nYTeM onpOC3 ·i{ellw.HII, ){ 50 JleT, n03BOJlSl101' IlllpeneJJlfTb HC'lepnaIlH),lo n.10.ll.0BHTOCTb. OIlHBKO uelll!OCTb 3THJ!: flallllblX T310KC orpaHII'lcHa, noo\oJlbKY OIiH OTHOCSlTC5I TOJJbKO 1\ nOKOJleHHlo. 38nllCb n[m onpoce AUTl>1 5IB.nellllii J.eJlaeT Ma1ep"aJlb! aHaMUt!- l'TlI'leCKllX oOCJle.lOBa HIlH n p II tllJ.,m.l1 <lJ1 bH 0 TOiKlleCTBeHlIbrMH C Ma- repil 8JlOM, nOJlY4 BeM blM Ha OCHone npSlMoi[ perHCTpal.(HIf. YK83BIllUI Ila HeTotl HoCTb 8Ha\llleCTI!4{,CKIIX ..J.aHlIbIX: 3anaMHTOB3- 111151, lICKa}KellHfI (oC'06eIIHO .naT) - He .nlllU€'Hhl OCIlOBaHBH. He Ha - O.!l.llaIW, 3a6blBaTb, 'ITO Ii lIenOl peAcTBeHHa51 perHCTpaUH$l II t'PC..11<O c1'pa;l.ae-r TCU"HMII iKe ;1.ecpeKTBMH . TaK, penlcrpaUHH <H.TOB rpa>K,1aIlCKoro COt'T05l1l11H, SlBJlf1IOWlleCn OCIIOBOH: Jl.eMOrpa<tnr- lJPCKOit CTaTHCTHKH, KaK H3BeCTlIO, .naneKO He CBo6oAllbI OT pSl.na ('YUleCTBeHHbIX He)l.ocra TKOB. YlMH CTpa.J,B.lll Me'Tp' lltleCK'He tteil KOB - Jl bl C 38 IHI CII , npOBO.ll.UBllllleC51 lIe.nOCTaTO'IHO rpBMOTHO H nopolO CO- 3l1areJlbllO HIOKa>KaBlllHeCH. 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Transcript of AHAMHECTHlJECKlifi METO,ll. B ,ll.EMOrPAlilJECKOn CTATli

AHAMHECTHlJECKlifi METOll B llEMOrPAltIgtlilJECKOn CTATli CTHKE 1

1 06maSl XapaKTepHCTHKa aHaMHeCTHIeCKOrO MeTOJla

neperUlCb naCeJleHIl5I 1959 r HeCOMHellHO no6YlII T K 3lalfHshy

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130

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(In14eCKHx HCCnelOBaHHif B 5KYTCKOi1 3KCUeJIHUHH AKBAeM lul HayK 1925-1926 rr J B n pl1nOMpllbix nepem lC)X D leMOrpacentH~lecKHx lICeneJlOBalllHlX centPaHUY3CKOro MHITHCTepCTBa KonOllHH (A66BTY4H

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IhY4eHHe BocnpOH3BOACTBa HaCeJleHHIS1 ITon)tlCIIIILle Illllilde

o pmKJaeMOCTJ1 resp nnOJlOBWrOCrn CMepTHOCTlI resp nepegtKHBashy

l MOCTH n03BOnHlQT oxapaKTepH30BaTb npoueCChl BoenpoH3BoJJcTBa

Il aCeJIelll1 H B BeCb~[a 6agtKfI blX JlOKa3aTeJIHX

i C~CAyCT ynoMllII)Tb eUtC oei )lItOM pa3J1i1 l llJI OPII unpoce MaTcpeii noJIYshyliIlOTCll Jl3HHbJe 0 Bcex GpaTbflX II ceCTpax OLlI0f rellep3UIIH ue33BIICHMO 01

TOro JlOgtKIIJI JIll KTO-JlHCiO 113 lUX 0 lOMeIlTa O(jCICliOBaUI5[ np onpoce B3pOCshyJIOrO H3CeJj(~H~1l 0 CYllb6e 6paTbCB II ceeTep nOJlytaIOTCl llatlllblC 0 upaTbR II ceCTpax OllHHX 11 -rex )KC reflepaUIliI HeJ3BliCHMQ 01 113Jl11IHSI [l gtKIIBbiX fiX MaTcpeil 110 olil13aTeJ1bHO npeAc-r3BJleHHLIX XOTll 6b1 OllllllM JIOgtKIIBWIiM Ha MOMeHl lla6JllOIlelUHI n p 063I1JIOM TaKIiM oCipasoM 113 lla6JJIOllellHlI BbJll3J13101 rpyn lthl CipaTbeB II cec-rep 1l0rO1C1BIIO SbllepIIHle K MOlellTy OCiCJlellOB 311 Il II

138

J

PeCIb HAeT 00 ~iC4nCleHlm K03QgtIlJHuHeH Ta BocnpoH3soJJCTna Hashy

CeJIeHFlH no MeTOAY 5eKa n03BOJlHIOmeMY Ha OCHose JJaHHhIX 0 l1 eshy

pegtKHBa HHtI gtKeHCKO r o HaCeJleHH n c o oTBeTcTsYIOlUHX B0 3pncTHblX

nOKa3aTeJleii nlO)lOBIlTOCTYI YCTaHoBII Tb 411CJIO OgtKHJlaeMbIX pOgtKJleshy

Hflii JlJl51 Bc ero Jlaml Or O nOKOJleHIH H BblBecTI nOKa3aTeJH Bocnpo-

113BOJJCTBa I

XOA COOTBeTCTBYIOUlHX Bbl 4HCJIeHHH n p HBeJJeH B Ta6J1Hue 4 ( n o

naHHhlM 06cJleJJosaHHH MeH3eJlHHCKOro pai10Ha T aTapcKou

ACCP) 2 T a6Hua 4

Bocnpo H3BOACTBO nOKOn e ll iI (AnR n OKOneHH C Ha laJIbHOIi 1 HCne tI HOCT b lO B 1000 lK)

B03pacTllhlc middotpyn n

I

JltQ11IlCCTDO POlKII-TblX leT

I03IjlqllllHIIT 1I 1 OaD-PIITOCTH (npo ~cITI)

lI11cO pOlKJe ll n 8 A3l1ll0A 903paCTllO if

fP YIlIlc rp 2xrp a

4

15shy 19 20-24 25--21 30shy 34shy35-39 40-44 45-49

Bccro

2595 2456 2217 2056 I 934 L80 1 1685

4 1 28 0 320 275 238 12 3 28

106 687 709 565 46 1 222 47

2 797

M 1045 OonoaaSi npOIlOPUIII )K 1UUO

279 l(09cpqlllUlfCIlT BocnpOll3BOllCTB8 R = 2045 = 137

Ha OCHOBe COOTBeTCTBYIOUlHX TaOnJlIl CMepTHOCTIt (nepegtKHBaeshy

MOCTI) COCTaSJlfle-rcSl PHn BblpagtKalOllIllH LfHCJlO KeHIllHH JlOgtKB shy

UlHX JlO KagtKJlOrO B03paCTHOro npOMegtKYTKa (113 Ua4anbHOH tlliCshy

1eHHOCTH 1000 POAIIBWUXCfl gtKeHllllm) lUI tlTO TO Ke l(HCJlO leT

npOgtKHTblX U a HilblM nOKOneHIHH gtKelUlVfl B Jla HHOM B03paCTe

LlallHble 0 nepegtK~IBaeMOCTH MoryT 6bITb B311TbI H3 OOUltrX Ta6shy

JlIIIl CMepTHOCTH HaCCJle ll llfi CTpallbl o6J1 8CT II 1 IIJli H3 TaCimlIl 110 shy~y4eHllblx npH aHaMHeCTHlJeCKOM 06CJleAOBaHHH

B rpallJe 2 Ta6nHUb 4 nOKa3aHO iO1H l leCTBO np0gtKFlTbIX JleT

irrJlSI nOKOJleHHfI reIHUIf Il C Ha4aJlbHOH l(HCJIeHHOCTblO BlOOD llen n shy

YK33aJlllbli[ MCTOJI nOJlytlClillfl 110K333Tenerr BocnpOH3BOJlCTBa IlII1POtO npt middot ollileu Il 20--30-x rOllax WllleCTHb11 r cpMallCKIIl JIeMorpacf1oM KYIII11CKlll

OGOUUUIDIllHM 3I1alHTCJlbllblll MaTepll3n no CTpaHaM MHpa C Ilb(tlllCJeIllICM rpy60ru IipYTTO) H 1I1CTOrn (HeTTO) nOI333TeJIl BOCnpOHIIlOACTBa

3TOT MeTOJI 6bll npICnell MIfOIO OlIlOllpeMeHIiO C KYIIlHCKIiM H I J e~ aTlHCHshyMO OT lIero K3K II KYIlIHCI(IIH SI IICXOnHJr 11 3 OCHOBHblX nOJIO)lelllifl pasp a6o shyTaHllblX BeKOM

2 lt1gt r My x a Mel blip 0 B K Bonpocy 06 113YleBHI BOCI1POH3BOJlCTfla lIoKOneHHil Ka3a ncKllii Men )Ipllan ~ 6 J93 1

3 I1MelOTcSI B BHJlY TaOJlIlUbI CMCp TIi OCTH COCTillgt1lCMbIC OprilHaIH o cP unHshy2JlbHOli CTaTIICTIIKJI na OCHOe3111111 llanRblX nepenHceif u yler3 tlBHIKCnllll Hacc 1ell Ifll

139

Eellt) COOTBeTCTBermo nOp5lLII(a nmKHTlHI no TaUJlIlUaM CMepTHOCTH CJCTaBJleHHbllll no nalIllbl~1 npOH3BenellHoro HCCl1eaOBa HlI51

K03centcentrUIHenTbf 06lleH rrJlOJQBUTOCTII (rpacpa 3) nO1y4eHul hpJ

TO~I )Je rrCCJlenOB~lI1HJl

DpOU3BeneHIl5T laHHblX rpacjgt 2 II 3 nalOT no llt3gtKJ1oii B03paCTshyHoii rpynne BeJIIl4HHY o)JlfJaelblX pOgtKleHII~i (rpacjgta 4) H fiX CYMshyMa 2797 Bblpa)faeT o)JIHtaeurolOC KOMI4CCTBO po)aefllrir OT Bcero noshylOJlCIH1~ )eIlWHT T c fIllCleHHOCTb reHepaUHlT BocnpoH3scnCHshy

hOll HaLJaJlbHhI~1 nOKOI(lle~1 lellllITlmiddot rrpli taIlHOM nOp5lnKe nepeshy

gtKIIBaHlIH

COOTI-lOllIellllC ~JIlCla POJlIIAUlllXCH MalhlJHKOB H oCBOlfeK no naHshy[(b1~1 aBTopa COCTaBJlHlO 1045 1000 OTCIOna lI3LJaJlbliaH lIllCJleIl shy

HOCTb Bcera nOKOJlCHIIH npHH51T~1 B 2045

CTleJoBaTeTbHo 1lt03cprp1UnellT BonpotI3floncTBa OPYTTO paBeH

2717 _Rb = ~o15= l 3r

I03rpcjgtlfuneliT BocnpoH3BoacTsa lIeno

_ 2lt)7 _) IRII - IOOU - _R

2 MeTO)l 1t30XPOH 2

Dpl-I rrpOBCJIeIlJlI aHallleerH4eCKlIX IICClenOB3mni JlCMorpacentnshyleCKne lTpOUeCCbl MoryT 6JITb 13Ytellb perpOCnelltTIlBHO no OTshyJefbHbIM HHTepeCYIOllII~1 HccnenOB3Te1H XpOHO10rtflJeCI(lJM n(-p~loshy

aai TaK B03MO)JHO cpaBIIHTeJlbHOe H3y~el--me pOJKIae10CTH

cepTHOCTIi npoueCC05 Bocnp01l3BonCTS3 rrace1ellllH 3a neplIOJlh1 10peSOJ1l0UHOIHLlir (ao 19 18 r ) H nOCJlEpeBOJIlOUHOHHblii 3a uoshyBoeHHblii (1918-19middot10) II 1l0CJleBOeffliJlj H 3a 6oec lleTa~bHble XpoHO10rlf1-leCIltlC nepollhl (lla nplnlep 5- 1O-1eTH lie II T n) 3TO ooecne4HBaeTC51 npmleleHlIEM MeTona 1I30XPOf OCHOBalIIIOlO na pacnpeleJleHlI1 cooTBer crByrOllI1X naHHblX B TaK Ha3hTSaelblX Ta6shy

J1Tuax Tpex 1I3MepeliHii

I 06wenpIIHflTIJC B I ac rOllwee apeln GpyTTO 11 flerro - 1OjJrVIIllIfCHTbI BocnrOIf3BOnCTB3 IICIIIIC111101Cfl IICCKOJlbKO THialle II o603I1a IIBTOT I) 6pYTTOshyKOltjJijllTUlICIiT (B3lOIlOii rpy6blii nOKa3aTC~b) BOCrrpOll31l01lCTila - 4IC10 lC60shyIltK POC1ClillbIX Il qClIlC~1 OJ1I1Oli (llllllIfIiOli 3a uel nJlO)l06HTblil nepHOD cc WiIlH II 2) neTTo-Ko3cjJltjlHlHleHT (OtIllWlHHblf DOK33aTCb aOCllpOIl31l0ilCTB3 mlla3)Tlt1[ IIIICToro t ocnpo1l3BocTlla) - TO iKe COOTH OWeHlli MBTtpeii Ii l104Cshypdi L10 C YTO~I j1a3~H pOI3 c~lepTH(ICTII gtKClIIlIIIH B B03pacTc 10 50 JleT (Kolla 11J10JlODIiTOro lleplIOJla KIL3HI ilCllllllIllW) OrpaKellHWX B TaOJIIIllaX CMCPTtIOCTI )h(IICKOro 113tCJICllliR J(TOHIKY BWIflC tellust 3TlIX 1I0Ka1aTeeii eM I) A 51 [j 0 $I pc K II ii Kypc1e~lOrpal~IIleCloli e1-aTIiCTIIhIImiddot M 1945 eTp 84- 90 2) A 5I [) 0 SI P ( I II II II n n III Y III e p 11 It laquolJeMorpacjJllqc(laR CTaTHCTllIlt8 M 1955 erp 290---3UO A M_ J e p Ilt 0 11 laquoJlc~OrJlacjJlIllecKaR CTaTIICTIIKaraquo 1950 eTp l ui [G6 _ Ped

2 l M TllOI( CTp 22 c(i(lPHIIK1

1middot0

Ta6J11lua 5 nOKa3blBal0llafl pacnpelleJlCHlle pO)lJleIlIIH flO B03shypacTY )eHllHR B MOMellT o6CJleIoBamHI (nowegtKalllCe) il no IIX

B03paCTY B MOfeIlT P021nellllH peGeHllta (cKa3yeMoe) 11aeT B03shyMOiKHOCTb pacnpeneJlNIIHI ITO COOTBeTCTBYIOUlIIM oloIarOHaJlflM Tex Ie C06h1TIIH no XpOIIOJlOrHlJeC[lIM llaTa~1 To iKe B CJ1Y4ae pacnpcshy

nCJ1elilHl yMepwHx no taTe POgtIlt)JCHlm II B03paCTY CMepTIl H T )I

3m n~larOllaJlH HOCHT na3BaHHC 1130XpOI (JIeKcHc-KHanrr) T c J111 lTJlIl COelIlIl5IOWIIX TOllKII c06bITmi OJlIl1aKOBOro BpeMeHloI MOgtKshy110 rOBopllTb He TOJlblW 06 H30XpOlax MIHH~X HO II 06 H30XpOH

HbX nJlOwanHX (lf30XpOHHbIX nOJllHOHax) orpalllllleHHbIx oBYfH H30xpoHa MI1 nooctteTbI no 1oI30xpoHaM no l30XpOllllblllt nOllHroshy

113M naIOT pacnpenerrCIIle OCHOBHoil cOBoKynIlOCTl (pOgtKJ1eHni-i CMcpTeii II T a) no COOTBeTCTBYIOWHM XpOIlOJlOrH4eCI-IM neposhy

ua1 COBoKyrrHocTu npoiKlfTblX leT nMI Bceil 06cleJOBaIlHo~1 rpynshylTbl B Ka)IO-1 B03paCHIOM npOMCiltyTKC B aaIlIlOM XpOIIOJlOnPl eCshyKO neplfO]e nOJlYlfalOTCSl nYTeM COOTBeTCTBYIOlleii iOJlcplI~aUllll 06urlHhlX MeTOnos HalJeTHbI( p~UIOB

nOpHJIOK BblpoundHCJ1eIlHH COBOIYlTIIOCTI npOgtKHThiX nou Ha6molleshy

lIIeM JleT AJU Bceii r p ynnbT o6cneoOBaHHbrX 3a BCCb nepffOn HX

iKII3HH B B03paCTe CTaprue 15 neT npl1Se]JeH BblllIe (Ta6Jl 1 CTp 135)

ECJlH Fle06xoalTMO yqeCTb eme TOT JIll IiHoii POIIOJIOrHlleCKuii

nepon TO YCTaHasmlBaeTCH S03paCTHoe paCnpelleJiCHHe )l(el-llllHH Ha lIa~laJIO II KOlieu 3T01O neplJOlla ~ITO oOCTlraeTC5I COOTseTCTB)shy

IOlleH peoYKUHeii E03paCTTIOro pacnpe(CJleIHHr HanpltMep -lT06rx nOJ1~mTb 113 MaTeplfaJ10B 06CJ1t~aoBaHH5I 1956 r B03pacTHoe pacshynpeneJleHHe 118fHIoro KOIJlelTlfsa B 1940 r cJlenye-r nCpeJlBrfllyTb p~o n o B03pacTHolI lUl( aJ1C Ha 1U leT_ Korll tleCTBo rrpO)llThlX JleT

Jt-IH KalKnoro B03pacTHoro npoMCgtKYTtlta nOJlY4aeTcSl nYTeM nocJleshyAOBaTeJlbHoro cyMMHposaHHH 11aHllbiX 0 BCTynHslUHx B uaHHo~1 B(3pacTe B TOT ItJHI IHIOi XpOIlOJllrlllJeCKHii TIepnon II nmJ1elOBashyleJlblIOro BhPHlTaHH5I AaUI-lbIX 0 BblCTynHsllHIX H3 3Toro )Kf XPOllO

nOrHlJeCKOrO nepKona B oaHHOM B03paCTe DOSlCllInt TeXHUKY BblllHCJlCllliH CJ1CoYIOlllIHI npllMepOM B Ta6J1HUC 5a npI1Be~teHbI HClIICIeIITH J(JlIrrelbI-lOCTH nepHOlOa

Ha6mOlleHII51 no S03paCTHblM rpynna~1 J1l5T COBJKYnIIOCfH o6cJleshynosamlblX B 1956 r )JClIl1lHH (2802 4elOAela) no If(lCTHhl1 nepllo

131 no 1941 r 1941 - 19middot15 rr bull 1946-1956 rr BblLJI-ICIleHHH nposhy113BcaeHhl C1CaYIOUIIfM o6pa30M B rparpax 2 4 It G nallo pacrrpEue shyJIC~II1P Bcell COBOKvnHOCTIi o6c~eJlOBaHllblx iKelfllnH no BOJpacl v na HallaTlO lltaiKuoro llaCrHOrO nerHlOJ1a COOTBeTcTBYOIllIle lltela

W)JlY1leHbl nYTCM peoyKIlllH B03paCTlIOrO pacnpe1eJleHlISl Ha MO ]lellT OOcleJlOB3IlHH (rroqa 6) Tal lU1f1 B03pacTlloro pacnpe-leshy

1eIHI5T Ad 1941 r (rpacpa 2) penYlltlrr51 npOH3SE1eHa H3 15 ller

lHl paClipcnCJ1elIliSl Ha 1946 r (rparplt1 4) - 1C1 10 leT B rpacpax 3 5 H 7 nplIBeneHbl aerIHllHlllJ npOiKHTWX neT no OTshy

aeJllgtlIb11 B03paCTHblM npOMeKYTKaM no KaKLlOIY tlaCT~oMy neshy

pilon) BW411cleHIHI 3TIIX BCJlHllfH npOlI3seueHbl cIeAYIOllHlI oGshypa30TII

141

----

Ta6nllL35

PacnmiddotpellenCHHe pOlKJeHHH no BoapacTy amplaTep B MOMeHT POllOB

(o6c~eJoDaIlHe 1955 r )

B()j (laCT gtta lmiddotcpgt1 B MOM ellT pltJI101

B03p3CT ~nTcpll I o ~o ellT 06celloo31I11A

18 I 19 I 20 I 21 I 22 23 I 24 I 8 T JI

I 18 1955 19 1I 20 -2-1 shy21 1 3 1 shy22 I 1 1

4 -6-23 2 3 1 1 2 -2-~24 3

1 225 2 2 5 7

26 1 I 2 4 5 27 2 3 1 2 l 2

2R 1945 1 2 4 3 2 4 3

29 lt 3 2 I 2 41+130 L 5 1 3 1

- 7- 331 4 2 3 4 -2-132 2 3 5 2 5

6 -31 433 3 4 6 -3-34 2 3 5 5 4

35 3 4 7 3 4 7 36 2 3 6 l ) 5 37 2 j I 4 7 a If

33 1935 3 4 2 8 5 4

39 5 4 3 4 4 7I 6 3 8 (jJO -1- 5

--3shy41 2 2 1 5 7 3 3 42 4 6 - 3- 5 4 3

3 -2-143 2 1 4 3 11

44 3 2 () 4middot 6 - 2- 5 - 8shy45 3 l 7 4 4

46 5 4 3 3 5 6

47 5 5 1 3 4 48 2 7 2 5 ~ l

49 J 6 R C 5 l (j50 II CTapwe fi 4 8 9 7 9

Bcero pOlKneHHii 37 77 118 lIt 111 104 IIIl

B TOM IBcne no uepliOnaM

1945-1954 rr 7 18 23 21 26 32 34 1935--194+ rr 12 32 4J 46 47 42 50

110 1935 r 18 2fi 52 44 37 29 32

142

llJJ5I laCToro neplloll3 AO 1941 r (lpacpa 3) IHCJlO HaGmolleH HblX (np0gtKHTblX) JleT H s03pacTe 15 JleT 04eSHllHO paBHO tlllCJlY Bcex 2802 o6cJlellOSaHHblx )KeHtUMH 3a BbIeTOM 12middot~6 IKelJtUI-Hl He llOCnrrWHX K IWHlIY 3Toro lJaCTllOrO nepH01Ia 15 JleT T e 1556

BeJllFIIIHbl llMI B03pacroB 16 17 18 H T Jl nOJlY4eHbI nYTeM rrOCJleJlOBaTeJlbHOrO Bbl4HTaHHSI raquoltElltUHH HaXOllHBlllHXCSI K KOHUY nepHOJla B npeJlblJlYlUeH B03pacTHo~i rpynne (TaK )lJHI 16 JleT

1406 = 1556-150 DJHI 17 J1er 1359 = 1406-47 H T Jl) )lrUI 43CTIOro IlcpHoDa 1941-l945 fT (rpacenta 5) LIlII~10 HCl6

JlIOJleUllbIX (np0gtKWrbrx) JleT B B03pacTe 15 fleT OleSHJllO paBHo qHCJlY gtKeHlliHH sCTynJlBwHx B 3TOT nepHOa IO J]OCTIIgtKeIHlH ]5 neT (l2-l6) 3a BbllleTOM emIHIH He Il0CHlrWHX 3Toro B03paCTa JlO 1946 r (75 J ) MCKOMoe 1HCJ10 paBHO pa3fIOCTIl nllX lIHCeJl T e

1246-751 = 495 T 6 J1 11 L a 5a

HCIHCJlelllle npOJl(HTblX noll tlaonIOJleHlleM 1eT Anll Reeti rpynobl lIIeHutHH no neptO)laM

ItUI10 nposhyIt1J1hlyen 1I 0U

1Ifno lUCO lI uOICA shyIu( lUPfnpClICshy IUlllpCt shyPocnPClC middot npo~nn npOlKTbIX tHle Jle1JlIUUC IlOJlltaUlIOmiddot 11UHc1 CIUlCn[JoaIIThl~ 1I0JllliI61t10 Uil eeL)fCUHUIII

)KCUUUIll nolellHCMOJ 113611lt- ~ltellll(11I1D03p~C1 ACHlH leT nCpH OJl AO ACIlIlt4 neT no oOIn~T) 1t l 33

no BOIshy lIotflurTY Jtl 19~6 IOMCIITU JlO I ~middotI I r

rlOt middot middotY 1t3 lit 1J51i r1J11110 lhu r 1955 rr oIiCl1cIIlt)shy1911 r (Itw rr OnltlUI (1J5I r)

I 7 86~ 3 41

751 751

) 2-16 -no 15 31 2A02) 16 495155615 150 aq 27719164middot1998)6 140047

976 2733 18

75135y 1M aVti17 72 1Jd l79 ~65839241) f512S7

Y4671 25-1038 353) 211HI 42 135 II T ~ 1 T a

21 150 II T lI20 II T n

~3middot17I 7n72 84

22 46

24 23

80-42 )96tl T 1125 98

27 21)

7R 85

29 28

38 30 150 31 47 32 72 33 46 34 42

11 T bull u II T Jl t t

Bcero Q

BemfllHHbl llJlH B03paC10B 16 17 18 1I T lI nOJIytleHbl CJleJlYshyIOlUliM 06pa30M npH6aRJleHbl 1Ilcna )f(eflLLIH1J HaXOllHBWHXC5I K HaLIaJlY nepnoJJa B npeAblllytUej B03paCTHoii npynne (rpacpa 2) 11

143

- -- ---

PaCnpelleJlelllle raquolteI-lllJHII no B03pacry B lOlgtleUT 06C~leLlOBai1l1H II B03paCTY BCT)nJ1eHH5I B 6paK I1Jlli npeKparneHHH 6paKa KdK yKashy3aHO Bhlwe LlaeT B03MOiKHOCTb pacnp el1e1HTb HX no xpOHOnOrHleshyClmM nepHonaM (LlHarOHaJ1blIbiM JTHHHflM I130Xp0l(nl) llJUr KaiK shy

loro B03paCTa nOrOlHO nOJlcqHThlBaeTen lHCJlO COCTOHBilHiX Ii 6pashyKe K KOIIUY nepHOLla (FlnlI ITO TO Me n epeWeJlWHX B COCTOHHHe 6paKa B cleJlYIOLUHii nepHOJl) TaK ~IHCJlO 23-JleTHHX COCTOHBillllX K 6paKe B 1945 r bull nOJTYllaeTC5J no ropH30HfaJlH B03paCTa 33 r Ol la ( Ha MOMeHT 06CJleIlOBaHHfI) rrYTeM CyMIgtIYI[l oaaHIUI BCryf1RBWRX B 6paK no 1945 r H BbllIITaHHH CJIYllaes np eIltpaLUCHH5I 6paKa

18 = 2+ 4 I 5 5 middotH~- 1

LfHCJ1a npoMHTblX leT B OpatJHOM COCTOHHIlI1 nJlSl OT)lenbHbI X

XpOH0J10rH4eCKHx nepHOJlOB (CM Ta6n 6a) orrpeJlenHIOTC5I cneJly shyIO[UHM 06pa30M rroroaI1O I1MI Karaquoltnoro B03pacTa nOCJlenOBaTeJ1bshy110 CYMMIlPYIOTC5I nepeweLltIllle B COCT05HlIe 6pallta T13 npeiJbICyweshyro nepHOla ( r pacpa 2) H BCTymwwHe B GpaK B llaHHOM B03pacTe If

B naHHOM nepnOl1e (rpacpa 3) Ii nOCJ1eJlOBaTeJlbIlO BblllHTalOTCH Dce npeKpanlBWlle 6paK (rpacpa 4) H nepeXOJl5IllJHe B COCTOfllHIC 6paKa B cJ1enYIOwuH n epHOlt (rpacpa 5) Tallt 4liCIJO np0gtKHTbIX OpalHblX JleT B B03pacre 19 J1eT I1J1H liIepHona 1945-1954 rr paBlfo

84= 38+2+ 48- 1- 3

JlSI 22 TIeT

160 = 154 + 6+18- 3-15 H T i

T a 6 Jl II [I a 6a

HCIIICJleIlHe 6paIHoro nepHOJla (lHCna npOlKHTblX neT) J1nJl xpOHOnOrlfeCKOrO nepHOJla

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152

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MellHfI BemllfIf BCTyntmW1fX B

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TOM IKe Boapacre ( rpacp a 3) a

MNIT HaOmOlleHH1 (rpa (~a 4)

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(rpa rp a 4) laeT K03rpshy

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eT AJISl OTleJlbllbIX B031aCT0I3

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vfamfe pacnpenenelllfe 06CneJlOBaIlIibIX a) no 1303pacTY BCTyoneshy

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135

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( 4HCJla npolKKTblX 6pa4 Hbix Jle T)

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137

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06belltTOM Hccnenosa Il H51 51BJl5leTCft B3pOCJlOe I1aCeJleIHle-crapshy

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138

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Eellt) COOTBeTCTBermo nOp5lLII(a nmKHTlHI no TaUJlIlUaM CMepTHOCTH CJCTaBJleHHbllll no nalIllbl~1 npOH3BenellHoro HCCl1eaOBa HlI51

K03centcentrUIHenTbf 06lleH rrJlOJQBUTOCTII (rpacpa 3) nO1y4eHul hpJ

TO~I )Je rrCCJlenOB~lI1HJl

DpOU3BeneHIl5T laHHblX rpacjgt 2 II 3 nalOT no llt3gtKJ1oii B03paCTshyHoii rpynne BeJIIl4HHY o)JlfJaelblX pOgtKleHII~i (rpacjgta 4) H fiX CYMshyMa 2797 Bblpa)faeT o)JIHtaeurolOC KOMI4CCTBO po)aefllrir OT Bcero noshylOJlCIH1~ )eIlWHT T c fIllCleHHOCTb reHepaUHlT BocnpoH3scnCHshy

hOll HaLJaJlbHhI~1 nOKOI(lle~1 lellllITlmiddot rrpli taIlHOM nOp5lnKe nepeshy

gtKIIBaHlIH

COOTI-lOllIellllC ~JIlCla POJlIIAUlllXCH MalhlJHKOB H oCBOlfeK no naHshy[(b1~1 aBTopa COCTaBJlHlO 1045 1000 OTCIOna lI3LJaJlbliaH lIllCJleIl shy

HOCTb Bcera nOKOJlCHIIH npHH51T~1 B 2045

CTleJoBaTeTbHo 1lt03cprp1UnellT BonpotI3floncTBa OPYTTO paBeH

2717 _Rb = ~o15= l 3r

I03rpcjgtlfuneliT BocnpoH3BoacTsa lIeno

_ 2lt)7 _) IRII - IOOU - _R

2 MeTO)l 1t30XPOH 2

Dpl-I rrpOBCJIeIlJlI aHallleerH4eCKlIX IICClenOB3mni JlCMorpacentnshyleCKne lTpOUeCCbl MoryT 6JITb 13Ytellb perpOCnelltTIlBHO no OTshyJefbHbIM HHTepeCYIOllII~1 HccnenOB3Te1H XpOHO10rtflJeCI(lJM n(-p~loshy

aai TaK B03MO)JHO cpaBIIHTeJlbHOe H3y~el--me pOJKIae10CTH

cepTHOCTIi npoueCC05 Bocnp01l3BonCTS3 rrace1ellllH 3a neplIOJlh1 10peSOJ1l0UHOIHLlir (ao 19 18 r ) H nOCJlEpeBOJIlOUHOHHblii 3a uoshyBoeHHblii (1918-19middot10) II 1l0CJleBOeffliJlj H 3a 6oec lleTa~bHble XpoHO10rlf1-leCIltlC nepollhl (lla nplnlep 5- 1O-1eTH lie II T n) 3TO ooecne4HBaeTC51 npmleleHlIEM MeTona 1I30XPOf OCHOBalIIIOlO na pacnpeleJleHlI1 cooTBer crByrOllI1X naHHblX B TaK Ha3hTSaelblX Ta6shy

J1Tuax Tpex 1I3MepeliHii

I 06wenpIIHflTIJC B I ac rOllwee apeln GpyTTO 11 flerro - 1OjJrVIIllIfCHTbI BocnrOIf3BOnCTB3 IICIIIIC111101Cfl IICCKOJlbKO THialle II o603I1a IIBTOT I) 6pYTTOshyKOltjJijllTUlICIiT (B3lOIlOii rpy6blii nOKa3aTC~b) BOCrrpOll31l01lCTila - 4IC10 lC60shyIltK POC1ClillbIX Il qClIlC~1 OJ1I1Oli (llllllIfIiOli 3a uel nJlO)l06HTblil nepHOD cc WiIlH II 2) neTTo-Ko3cjJltjlHlHleHT (OtIllWlHHblf DOK33aTCb aOCllpOIl31l0ilCTB3 mlla3)Tlt1[ IIIICToro t ocnpo1l3BocTlla) - TO iKe COOTH OWeHlli MBTtpeii Ii l104Cshypdi L10 C YTO~I j1a3~H pOI3 c~lepTH(ICTII gtKClIIlIIIH B B03pacTc 10 50 JleT (Kolla 11J10JlODIiTOro lleplIOJla KIL3HI ilCllllllIllW) OrpaKellHWX B TaOJIIIllaX CMCPTtIOCTI )h(IICKOro 113tCJICllliR J(TOHIKY BWIflC tellust 3TlIX 1I0Ka1aTeeii eM I) A 51 [j 0 $I pc K II ii Kypc1e~lOrpal~IIleCloli e1-aTIiCTIIhIImiddot M 1945 eTp 84- 90 2) A 5I [) 0 SI P ( I II II II n n III Y III e p 11 It laquolJeMorpacjJllqc(laR CTaTHCTllIlt8 M 1955 erp 290---3UO A M_ J e p Ilt 0 11 laquoJlc~OrJlacjJlIllecKaR CTaTIICTIIKaraquo 1950 eTp l ui [G6 _ Ped

2 l M TllOI( CTp 22 c(i(lPHIIK1

1middot0

Ta6J11lua 5 nOKa3blBal0llafl pacnpelleJlCHlle pO)lJleIlIIH flO B03shypacTY )eHllHR B MOMellT o6CJleIoBamHI (nowegtKalllCe) il no IIX

B03paCTY B MOfeIlT P021nellllH peGeHllta (cKa3yeMoe) 11aeT B03shyMOiKHOCTb pacnpeneJlNIIHI ITO COOTBeTCTBYIOUlIIM oloIarOHaJlflM Tex Ie C06h1TIIH no XpOIIOJlOrHlJeC[lIM llaTa~1 To iKe B CJ1Y4ae pacnpcshy

nCJ1elilHl yMepwHx no taTe POgtIlt)JCHlm II B03paCTY CMepTIl H T )I

3m n~larOllaJlH HOCHT na3BaHHC 1130XpOI (JIeKcHc-KHanrr) T c J111 lTJlIl COelIlIl5IOWIIX TOllKII c06bITmi OJlIl1aKOBOro BpeMeHloI MOgtKshy110 rOBopllTb He TOJlblW 06 H30XpOlax MIHH~X HO II 06 H30XpOH

HbX nJlOwanHX (lf30XpOHHbIX nOJllHOHax) orpalllllleHHbIx oBYfH H30xpoHa MI1 nooctteTbI no 1oI30xpoHaM no l30XpOllllblllt nOllHroshy

113M naIOT pacnpenerrCIIle OCHOBHoil cOBoKynIlOCTl (pOgtKJ1eHni-i CMcpTeii II T a) no COOTBeTCTBYIOWHM XpOIlOJlOrH4eCI-IM neposhy

ua1 COBoKyrrHocTu npoiKlfTblX leT nMI Bceil 06cleJOBaIlHo~1 rpynshylTbl B Ka)IO-1 B03paCHIOM npOMCiltyTKC B aaIlIlOM XpOIIOJlOnPl eCshyKO neplfO]e nOJlYlfalOTCSl nYTeM COOTBeTCTBYIOlleii iOJlcplI~aUllll 06urlHhlX MeTOnos HalJeTHbI( p~UIOB

nOpHJIOK BblpoundHCJ1eIlHH COBOIYlTIIOCTI npOgtKHThiX nou Ha6molleshy

lIIeM JleT AJU Bceii r p ynnbT o6cneoOBaHHbrX 3a BCCb nepffOn HX

iKII3HH B B03paCTe CTaprue 15 neT npl1Se]JeH BblllIe (Ta6Jl 1 CTp 135)

ECJlH Fle06xoalTMO yqeCTb eme TOT JIll IiHoii POIIOJIOrHlleCKuii

nepon TO YCTaHasmlBaeTCH S03paCTHoe paCnpelleJiCHHe )l(el-llllHH Ha lIa~laJIO II KOlieu 3T01O neplJOlla ~ITO oOCTlraeTC5I COOTseTCTB)shy

IOlleH peoYKUHeii E03paCTTIOro pacnpe(CJleIHHr HanpltMep -lT06rx nOJ1~mTb 113 MaTeplfaJ10B 06CJ1t~aoBaHH5I 1956 r B03pacTHoe pacshynpeneJleHHe 118fHIoro KOIJlelTlfsa B 1940 r cJlenye-r nCpeJlBrfllyTb p~o n o B03pacTHolI lUl( aJ1C Ha 1U leT_ Korll tleCTBo rrpO)llThlX JleT

Jt-IH KalKnoro B03pacTHoro npoMCgtKYTtlta nOJlY4aeTcSl nYTeM nocJleshyAOBaTeJlbHoro cyMMHposaHHH 11aHllbiX 0 BCTynHslUHx B uaHHo~1 B(3pacTe B TOT ItJHI IHIOi XpOIlOJllrlllJeCKHii TIepnon II nmJ1elOBashyleJlblIOro BhPHlTaHH5I AaUI-lbIX 0 BblCTynHsllHIX H3 3Toro )Kf XPOllO

nOrHlJeCKOrO nepKona B oaHHOM B03paCTe DOSlCllInt TeXHUKY BblllHCJlCllliH CJ1CoYIOlllIHI npllMepOM B Ta6J1HUC 5a npI1Be~teHbI HClIICIeIITH J(JlIrrelbI-lOCTH nepHOlOa

Ha6mOlleHII51 no S03paCTHblM rpynna~1 J1l5T COBJKYnIIOCfH o6cJleshynosamlblX B 1956 r )JClIl1lHH (2802 4elOAela) no If(lCTHhl1 nepllo

131 no 1941 r 1941 - 19middot15 rr bull 1946-1956 rr BblLJI-ICIleHHH nposhy113BcaeHhl C1CaYIOUIIfM o6pa30M B rparpax 2 4 It G nallo pacrrpEue shyJIC~II1P Bcell COBOKvnHOCTIi o6c~eJlOBaHllblx iKelfllnH no BOJpacl v na HallaTlO lltaiKuoro llaCrHOrO nerHlOJ1a COOTBeTcTBYOIllIle lltela

W)JlY1leHbl nYTCM peoyKIlllH B03paCTlIOrO pacnpe1eJleHlISl Ha MO ]lellT OOcleJlOB3IlHH (rroqa 6) Tal lU1f1 B03pacTlloro pacnpe-leshy

1eIHI5T Ad 1941 r (rpacpa 2) penYlltlrr51 npOH3SE1eHa H3 15 ller

lHl paClipcnCJ1elIliSl Ha 1946 r (rparplt1 4) - 1C1 10 leT B rpacpax 3 5 H 7 nplIBeneHbl aerIHllHlllJ npOiKHTWX neT no OTshy

aeJllgtlIb11 B03paCTHblM npOMeKYTKaM no KaKLlOIY tlaCT~oMy neshy

pilon) BW411cleHIHI 3TIIX BCJlHllfH npOlI3seueHbl cIeAYIOllHlI oGshypa30TII

141

----

Ta6nllL35

PacnmiddotpellenCHHe pOlKJeHHH no BoapacTy amplaTep B MOMeHT POllOB

(o6c~eJoDaIlHe 1955 r )

B()j (laCT gtta lmiddotcpgt1 B MOM ellT pltJI101

B03p3CT ~nTcpll I o ~o ellT 06celloo31I11A

18 I 19 I 20 I 21 I 22 23 I 24 I 8 T JI

I 18 1955 19 1I 20 -2-1 shy21 1 3 1 shy22 I 1 1

4 -6-23 2 3 1 1 2 -2-~24 3

1 225 2 2 5 7

26 1 I 2 4 5 27 2 3 1 2 l 2

2R 1945 1 2 4 3 2 4 3

29 lt 3 2 I 2 41+130 L 5 1 3 1

- 7- 331 4 2 3 4 -2-132 2 3 5 2 5

6 -31 433 3 4 6 -3-34 2 3 5 5 4

35 3 4 7 3 4 7 36 2 3 6 l ) 5 37 2 j I 4 7 a If

33 1935 3 4 2 8 5 4

39 5 4 3 4 4 7I 6 3 8 (jJO -1- 5

--3shy41 2 2 1 5 7 3 3 42 4 6 - 3- 5 4 3

3 -2-143 2 1 4 3 11

44 3 2 () 4middot 6 - 2- 5 - 8shy45 3 l 7 4 4

46 5 4 3 3 5 6

47 5 5 1 3 4 48 2 7 2 5 ~ l

49 J 6 R C 5 l (j50 II CTapwe fi 4 8 9 7 9

Bcero pOlKneHHii 37 77 118 lIt 111 104 IIIl

B TOM IBcne no uepliOnaM

1945-1954 rr 7 18 23 21 26 32 34 1935--194+ rr 12 32 4J 46 47 42 50

110 1935 r 18 2fi 52 44 37 29 32

142

llJJ5I laCToro neplloll3 AO 1941 r (lpacpa 3) IHCJlO HaGmolleH HblX (np0gtKHTblX) JleT H s03pacTe 15 JleT 04eSHllHO paBHO tlllCJlY Bcex 2802 o6cJlellOSaHHblx )KeHtUMH 3a BbIeTOM 12middot~6 IKelJtUI-Hl He llOCnrrWHX K IWHlIY 3Toro lJaCTllOrO nepH01Ia 15 JleT T e 1556

BeJllFIIIHbl llMI B03pacroB 16 17 18 H T Jl nOJlY4eHbI nYTeM rrOCJleJlOBaTeJlbHOrO Bbl4HTaHHSI raquoltElltUHH HaXOllHBlllHXCSI K KOHUY nepHOJla B npeJlblJlYlUeH B03pacTHo~i rpynne (TaK )lJHI 16 JleT

1406 = 1556-150 DJHI 17 J1er 1359 = 1406-47 H T Jl) )lrUI 43CTIOro IlcpHoDa 1941-l945 fT (rpacenta 5) LIlII~10 HCl6

JlIOJleUllbIX (np0gtKWrbrx) JleT B B03pacTe 15 fleT OleSHJllO paBHo qHCJlY gtKeHlliHH sCTynJlBwHx B 3TOT nepHOa IO J]OCTIIgtKeIHlH ]5 neT (l2-l6) 3a BbllleTOM emIHIH He Il0CHlrWHX 3Toro B03paCTa JlO 1946 r (75 J ) MCKOMoe 1HCJ10 paBHO pa3fIOCTIl nllX lIHCeJl T e

1246-751 = 495 T 6 J1 11 L a 5a

HCIHCJlelllle npOJl(HTblX noll tlaonIOJleHlleM 1eT Anll Reeti rpynobl lIIeHutHH no neptO)laM

ItUI10 nposhyIt1J1hlyen 1I 0U

1Ifno lUCO lI uOICA shyIu( lUPfnpClICshy IUlllpCt shyPocnPClC middot npo~nn npOlKTbIX tHle Jle1JlIUUC IlOJlltaUlIOmiddot 11UHc1 CIUlCn[JoaIIThl~ 1I0JllliI61t10 Uil eeL)fCUHUIII

)KCUUUIll nolellHCMOJ 113611lt- ~ltellll(11I1D03p~C1 ACHlH leT nCpH OJl AO ACIlIlt4 neT no oOIn~T) 1t l 33

no BOIshy lIotflurTY Jtl 19~6 IOMCIITU JlO I ~middotI I r

rlOt middot middotY 1t3 lit 1J51i r1J11110 lhu r 1955 rr oIiCl1cIIlt)shy1911 r (Itw rr OnltlUI (1J5I r)

I 7 86~ 3 41

751 751

) 2-16 -no 15 31 2A02) 16 495155615 150 aq 27719164middot1998)6 140047

976 2733 18

75135y 1M aVti17 72 1Jd l79 ~65839241) f512S7

Y4671 25-1038 353) 211HI 42 135 II T ~ 1 T a

21 150 II T lI20 II T n

~3middot17I 7n72 84

22 46

24 23

80-42 )96tl T 1125 98

27 21)

7R 85

29 28

38 30 150 31 47 32 72 33 46 34 42

11 T bull u II T Jl t t

Bcero Q

BemfllHHbl llJlH B03paC10B 16 17 18 1I T lI nOJIytleHbl CJleJlYshyIOlUliM 06pa30M npH6aRJleHbl 1Ilcna )f(eflLLIH1J HaXOllHBWHXC5I K HaLIaJlY nepnoJJa B npeAblllytUej B03paCTHoii npynne (rpacpa 2) 11

143

- -- ---

PaCnpelleJlelllle raquolteI-lllJHII no B03pacry B lOlgtleUT 06C~leLlOBai1l1H II B03paCTY BCT)nJ1eHH5I B 6paK I1Jlli npeKparneHHH 6paKa KdK yKashy3aHO Bhlwe LlaeT B03MOiKHOCTb pacnp el1e1HTb HX no xpOHOnOrHleshyClmM nepHonaM (LlHarOHaJ1blIbiM JTHHHflM I130Xp0l(nl) llJUr KaiK shy

loro B03paCTa nOrOlHO nOJlcqHThlBaeTen lHCJlO COCTOHBilHiX Ii 6pashyKe K KOIIUY nepHOLla (FlnlI ITO TO Me n epeWeJlWHX B COCTOHHHe 6paKa B cleJlYIOLUHii nepHOJl) TaK ~IHCJlO 23-JleTHHX COCTOHBillllX K 6paKe B 1945 r bull nOJTYllaeTC5J no ropH30HfaJlH B03paCTa 33 r Ol la ( Ha MOMeHT 06CJleIlOBaHHfI) rrYTeM CyMIgtIYI[l oaaHIUI BCryf1RBWRX B 6paK no 1945 r H BbllIITaHHH CJIYllaes np eIltpaLUCHH5I 6paKa

18 = 2+ 4 I 5 5 middotH~- 1

LfHCJ1a npoMHTblX leT B OpatJHOM COCTOHHIlI1 nJlSl OT)lenbHbI X

XpOH0J10rH4eCKHx nepHOJlOB (CM Ta6n 6a) orrpeJlenHIOTC5I cneJly shyIO[UHM 06pa30M rroroaI1O I1MI Karaquoltnoro B03pacTa nOCJlenOBaTeJ1bshy110 CYMMIlPYIOTC5I nepeweLltIllle B COCT05HlIe 6pallta T13 npeiJbICyweshyro nepHOla ( r pacpa 2) H BCTymwwHe B GpaK B llaHHOM B03pacTe If

B naHHOM nepnOl1e (rpacpa 3) Ii nOCJ1eJlOBaTeJlbIlO BblllHTalOTCH Dce npeKpanlBWlle 6paK (rpacpa 4) H nepeXOJl5IllJHe B COCTOfllHIC 6paKa B cJ1enYIOwuH n epHOlt (rpacpa 5) Tallt 4liCIJO np0gtKHTbIX OpalHblX JleT B B03pacre 19 J1eT I1J1H liIepHona 1945-1954 rr paBlfo

84= 38+2+ 48- 1- 3

JlSI 22 TIeT

160 = 154 + 6+18- 3-15 H T i

T a 6 Jl II [I a 6a

HCIIICJleIlHe 6paIHoro nepHOJla (lHCna npOlKHTblX neT) J1nJl xpOHOnOrlfeCKOrO nepHOJla

QI(10 iKe lllIllIH 1I lIen n n PO)lt)11LfHeno +C IIlL( HlI lJucno 011 11 11111TO c H t B 6PU 4 110 M BCTynHulIlI II li1l 1H

Aalllloro BlnpaCT(I Jl3 UH OI O UO IpH CTa B n~plloJll COllOSl HlIII 8 LaJt~ p CKpJ shytOCTOSlUIllH 8 C()CTCl 5I BllJItX 9BIIJ p nCT (IWi 1111 r ) T il BllHt X 110 B03P KTC

(ipnKc lin 11118110 liPKC K KOIII Iu n tJIIIIUU 6pnllt H ncpllo middot ne po)1 (1945 r ) lIe l a (K l middot i~ 1 ) (1~IS- 1 9fimiddot1 r r)BO p UCl C

-Ii I 51 2 middot1

_18 -38 - 3 19 12 ~tl 3 84

() 20 1)11 1J9 f)21 2 15425 6

22 18 3 156 160 23 6 17IS 16 161 2middot1 l 2012 10 139

U T jI

1-[

BbiGTeHbl HaXOlI1BWneCn B Toil Ie B03paCTIlOH rpynlle Ha KOHel( 11epHOJla (rpacenta 4)

TaK 449 = 495+ 150- 196 398 = 449 + 47- 98 11 T JI

llJU qaCTHOro nepJoIona 1946-1955 rr (rpacpa 7) BeJllollfHHbl QJTH B03pacToB 16 17 18 If T 11 1l0JT)IeHbl anaJlOrHlIHO naUHblM ilJH nepnola 194 L- [945 rr

TaK 916=751 + 196- 31 976 = 916+98- 38 R T 11 Cnoc06 nOJl)Ie lfH5I Ilall ll bl X )lJl51 Bcero nepHona B ueJlOM (lpashy

ltJa 8) IlOfICneH Bhlwe npHBeLleM erne OllHlI npllMcp fI pllMeHeHIIH MeTOl1a H30XpOll I1JHl

Bb[~IHCJleHHH no n epHOl1aM IIPOlHTbIX 6pa rlIfblx JTeT PaClteT nposhyH3BOLlHTCH no AallRblJI1 pacnpel1eJTeHH5 IeHlLUB no B03paCTY B MOshyMeHT o6CJTelOBaHHH (1956 r) H no B03pacTY scrynrleHHH B 6paK 1-1 ero npel(parneHHH (Ta61J 6)

T a 6 Jl II II a 6

PacnpeAeneHHe 06cneJ(onaHI1b1x no B03pacTY nCTynneHHII H OpeKpalleJlHSI 6paxa

B(J3pa CT B MOICIiT oc rynnclIHR A (ipallt MII npC Kp3utCIIIIR Opa lw

Bf) 3K3CT 91()1 CllT I ltI r~CA()fJIJIfIiSl II I I I I IIS 19 ~n n 22 21 2middot1 II T JI

18 1955 19 J I shy-ashy20 1 t

VI

21 J 2 I 2 22 6 -4 1 5 TIl I 23 5 5 4 3 -=-1

324 6 7 2 2 1 21 I---= 25 4 4 5 32 )

26 5 7 7 j 2 2 2 17 4 ti 7 G 2 32 28 1945 2 j 2 1 29 1 ) 5 1 2(2 30 2 3 3 1 1 1 2 12 31 21 --~ I I 1 2 1 2

- 1-132 2 3 2 1 12 33 2 -1 5 5 1 ---3-1_1 34 3 4 -tl I 2 11) 1_1_

It T 11

fj 194r)-I)) ( 11

tl CTYIIIIIO B 6paK 38 IS middot19 21 J8 Hi ll

flPCK P iITIf 1(l 6pt K 2 1 Ii

1 Iml u ihTYI11UJlUIi X H 0lllli ylhOl~oI h IIHmiddotHrrc1c IUUI ilptM11IHIIIII UnC1C

J~J

C OC TORBWHC II 6pIIc

110 linI1915 r

2 5 6 G

18 12

[( T I

19Sr

3 6 6

15 17 20 16 29 21 I 15 1 1 11 8

19 13

f[ 1 L

rlpi - B atltmiddot

4 HccneAoBaHHe CBH3K AeMorpa$HQeCKHX npo~eccoB C APyrHMH SlBneHHSlMH

nepeA HccneuOBaTene 1acTO BCTae-r 3alla4a xapaKTepnCTHKI

JlerwrpaqI14eCKHX npoueccoB B CBgtl3H C HEKOTOPbIMH BagtKltblMrt

C06blTl51lH Il nepeMefa ~111 B )IH13HU lltonJleKTlIBa II OTJlCJlbHOrO J1 Hshy

Ila TaKoBo nanpurep H3YleHlle pO)KIlaeMOCTII JeTclltoii olepTshyHOCHI B CBH311 C pU3RIltIJl5IMlI B TpYlle MaTep (npoMblwfleHluuk

HRII HenpOMbIWleIIUblii) 1ltIrJ11 LLHeM Hml (fCYTCTBHeM 3amIT tiK KYshy

CTapllblM npO~lbICJlOr B KpeCTb5lHCKlIX CelMIX ncpeCeJlCHl-leM B HO

Bble )KIIJ1I1Ula H l iTO B CBoe BpeM5I 6b1rlO oco6emIO BaXltHO nCTynshyleHIleM B KO1JleKTIIBIOe X035l1IcTBO C aKKilHMaTII3aUlleii npB nepeshy

ceneHlIfI B ApKTHKY B BblCOlltoropHble paiiollbi II T bull t OGblllllO B

11 IIX c~yqaSIX InYlfellue BpoundleTCSI nYTeM conOCTaB1elllHI JtBYX KOJIshy

leKTrIBOB 06J1analOI1lIlX (( lie 061aaaIOlllIH laIlFlWM npR3H8KOM ()aHaKO npaKTlltIeCllI lIeB0310gtKHO nOlblCKaTb Ko1rJeKTIIBbl lOCT8shy

TOlIfO OJlIIOpOQHhle BO nce~1 OCTaJlbIlOM II 3TO eCTeCTBellllO 3aTshy

PY)lHfleT 3allltlllY IIcCnClOBClHIf51 If HepellKO uCJlaeT ee lIepa3pCllIIIshy

oIoii Tallt HanplfMep npB conOCTaBJleHllH llByX KOJlJ1eKTIISOBshy

gtKlmylllllx B 1I0BbiX lolax H )OiBYUlIiX B CTapLIX llOM8X - nml IICshy

crlenOBaHIIH BJ1IWHII51 iKlUlIllllHblX YCJlOBlIii lla pmK)laeMOCTb UJIH

lleTCKYIO CMepmOCTb lJpe3Bbl l JaiiHO TpYliHO rrCK~IOIlITb BIJII5IHIH~ f03paCTllblX CounaJlbHomiddot6blTOBblX 11 llpyrHx pa3111LJII~i MegtKlY Te-I npli allaMHeCTlI4eClltO1 ~leTOlle B03~IOgtKHOCTb o6pa30BalllHl 13 aaHshy

1I0ii reHepaJlbHOii COBQKynHocTII LIZCTHbiX COBOIltYIlHOCTeir no llaHshy

11O1Y npOll3BonbHO BbI6pallliOY npl13HaKY (HanpllMep nepeceneshy

lTle B HOBbie )lOMa) o6eurocneLJ HBaeT llOCTaTOlJHYIO oanopoaI-lOCTb

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B pa3pa6oTKe allaMHECTH-leCKOrO MeTO[la H B npOBeJleH1l 1I 3KCshynellHUHOHHbtX 11 HllblX oGcneJ]oBaHHii npHHlIMano yqacTHe 3HatJHshyreJlbHOe tfHCJlO n a Yllnbl X pa6oTHHKOB CCCP

YKA3ATEJlb JIMTEPATYPbl

OIHOBHble HCTOlIHlKH no MeTonOJlOrltleCKIlM BonpocaM)

I n e K C U c CT3Tbn lTo TeopHH CT3TIICTltKIt lIaCeJIellllSl l TeopnIl npaBCTshyBCllltOI CT3THCHIKII 1 fp3qJlIlecKII~1 MeTOA HCCJleAOB3UHSl CMepT1l0Cni II noshyIHlllOK BblmlpaHIISl B nepeaOAeuro nOA peA Ll y rrpOBa Cn6 1906

2 13 a T K II C r A Ol[epKII 110 CTaTHCTIIIeCKOIi MeToaOJtOrllll I K Bonpocy MeTOLlOJlOrtlll IICH1c~eRIHI Cpe)lHerO B03pac-ra 11 MeTOLl H30Xpml Ill H3YleHue 11 10110[lIlTOCTII IV y13Y l lelHle CMCPTHOCTII V feOMeTplll[eCl(He r pacjJuKIl naceshyJI(IIUS VI AnaMHCCTIIIeC)HH leTO B AeMorpaClIlH laquoCOUB3J1bH3n rHrllella~ N 19 1928 ~2 2-3 12-13 N94 (14) 1928

3 13 a T Ilt II C r A K MeTonOJlOnlH 1t3YIJC8Hff BJHHIIIHl lIpocjJCCCl1l 113 nposhyIf~ BonHTe1bHylO cjJYHKlJUlO )KemllIIHbl laquofmUeHa 6C3onaCHoCTb It naTOnOrHH rpyn3 N2 2 M 1930

4 13 0 1I p C K 11 if A 51 It ill Ywe p H B n n Lle~lOrpacjJlJIleCKall CT3T11shyCTHKa M 1955

5 B bt C T P 0 B a B A LlocToeepHoCTb AamrblX nOJlylae~tblx alla~HleCTil-4(CKllM MeTonOM ABTopccjJepaT J1llccepTaUHH M 1954

6 Be H II 6 e p r B MeronIlKa H TeIIIlKa CT3TliCTHKU B nplIJlogtKellllH couliallbllOi 6lonortll1 nepeBoll nOll pCLl A B MOJIhKOB3 M 1928

7 My x 3 M C1 L Sl pO B ltIgt f K Bonpocy 06 113Y l lCIIlIIl BOCnpOl-l3BO1CtBa IIOKOMIlHJI K33alfcK~rit Mell iKypH3n 11 6 1931

8 My x a M e Jl blip 0 B (Igt r K Bonpocy 06 1I3YIJClIliH nepCgtF111J3eMOCTif B3poclloro TaTapCKoro 113CCJlelillfl Ka3 ~ICl livpH3n Ka3aH 1930

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152

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16 C T P Y M H IT H II C r np06J1eMloi 3KOHOMIIKII TpyJJa [JI V n p06J1(Ma

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T alllKeHT 1935 18 A n s c I L An lhe rate of morlality of early period of life and t he other

~l~li s li cs of families L 1879 19 K nap p L D ie sterblichkeit in Sachsen leipzig 1869 20 K u C z i ns k y R The balance of barlhs an d deaths N J 1928 21 Wei 0 b erg W Die Kinder cler Tuberkulosen LeIpzig 1913

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1eJlbllOCTb gtK1I3Hll K03QJcpllUHenT CMepTHOCTII CTaUHOliaporo HaC~shyre1Jll1H

TIp fl3y4ellflH rtepe)iHBae1OCTH 1eTe~i B oco6ellllOCTH B B03pashy

CTe JJO 5 JleT C I1X OTIJOCI1TeJIbHO 6blCOKHM KOHPCPUUHCHTOM CMepTIlOshyCTH MOgtKHO nOJlb30BaTbCf CpaBIIlITeJlbllO orpaHHlleHHbl M MaTepllashyJOM HanpoTIIB H3y4emle O-lepTHOCTIl B3pocnoro lIaCeJIeHII5I 6JIashy

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o pmKJaeMOCTJ1 resp nnOJlOBWrOCrn CMepTHOCTlI resp nepegtKHBashy

l MOCTH n03BOnHlQT oxapaKTepH30BaTb npoueCChl BoenpoH3BoJJcTBa

Il aCeJIelll1 H B BeCb~[a 6agtKfI blX JlOKa3aTeJIHX

i C~CAyCT ynoMllII)Tb eUtC oei )lItOM pa3J1i1 l llJI OPII unpoce MaTcpeii noJIYshyliIlOTCll Jl3HHbJe 0 Bcex GpaTbflX II ceCTpax OLlI0f rellep3UIIH ue33BIICHMO 01

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138

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pegtKHBa HHtI gtKeHCKO r o HaCeJleHH n c o oTBeTcTsYIOlUHX B0 3pncTHblX

nOKa3aTeJleii nlO)lOBIlTOCTYI YCTaHoBII Tb 411CJIO OgtKHJlaeMbIX pOgtKJleshy

Hflii JlJl51 Bc ero Jlaml Or O nOKOJleHIH H BblBecTI nOKa3aTeJH Bocnpo-

113BOJJCTBa I

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naHHhlM 06cJleJJosaHHH MeH3eJlHHCKOro pai10Ha T aTapcKou

ACCP) 2 T a6Hua 4

Bocnpo H3BOACTBO nOKOn e ll iI (AnR n OKOneHH C Ha laJIbHOIi 1 HCne tI HOCT b lO B 1000 lK)

B03pacTllhlc middotpyn n

I

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lI11cO pOlKJe ll n 8 A3l1ll0A 903paCTllO if

fP YIlIlc rp 2xrp a

4

15shy 19 20-24 25--21 30shy 34shy35-39 40-44 45-49

Bccro

2595 2456 2217 2056 I 934 L80 1 1685

4 1 28 0 320 275 238 12 3 28

106 687 709 565 46 1 222 47

2 797

M 1045 OonoaaSi npOIlOPUIII )K 1UUO

279 l(09cpqlllUlfCIlT BocnpOll3BOllCTB8 R = 2045 = 137

Ha OCHOBe COOTBeTCTBYIOUlHX TaOnJlIl CMepTHOCTIt (nepegtKHBaeshy

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UlHX JlO KagtKJlOrO B03paCTHOro npOMegtKYTKa (113 Ua4anbHOH tlliCshy

1eHHOCTH 1000 POAIIBWUXCfl gtKeHllllm) lUI tlTO TO Ke l(HCJlO leT

npOgtKHTblX U a HilblM nOKOneHIHH gtKelUlVfl B Jla HHOM B03paCTe

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B rpallJe 2 Ta6nHUb 4 nOKa3aHO iO1H l leCTBO np0gtKFlTbIX JleT

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2 lt1gt r My x a Mel blip 0 B K Bonpocy 06 113YleBHI BOCI1POH3BOJlCTfla lIoKOneHHil Ka3a ncKllii Men )Ipllan ~ 6 J93 1

3 I1MelOTcSI B BHJlY TaOJlIlUbI CMCp TIi OCTH COCTillgt1lCMbIC OprilHaIH o cP unHshy2JlbHOli CTaTIICTIIKJI na OCHOe3111111 llanRblX nepenHceif u yler3 tlBHIKCnllll Hacc 1ell Ifll

139

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K03centcentrUIHenTbf 06lleH rrJlOJQBUTOCTII (rpacpa 3) nO1y4eHul hpJ

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DpOU3BeneHIl5T laHHblX rpacjgt 2 II 3 nalOT no llt3gtKJ1oii B03paCTshyHoii rpynne BeJIIl4HHY o)JlfJaelblX pOgtKleHII~i (rpacjgta 4) H fiX CYMshyMa 2797 Bblpa)faeT o)JIHtaeurolOC KOMI4CCTBO po)aefllrir OT Bcero noshylOJlCIH1~ )eIlWHT T c fIllCleHHOCTb reHepaUHlT BocnpoH3scnCHshy

hOll HaLJaJlbHhI~1 nOKOI(lle~1 lellllITlmiddot rrpli taIlHOM nOp5lnKe nepeshy

gtKIIBaHlIH

COOTI-lOllIellllC ~JIlCla POJlIIAUlllXCH MalhlJHKOB H oCBOlfeK no naHshy[(b1~1 aBTopa COCTaBJlHlO 1045 1000 OTCIOna lI3LJaJlbliaH lIllCJleIl shy

HOCTb Bcera nOKOJlCHIIH npHH51T~1 B 2045

CTleJoBaTeTbHo 1lt03cprp1UnellT BonpotI3floncTBa OPYTTO paBeH

2717 _Rb = ~o15= l 3r

I03rpcjgtlfuneliT BocnpoH3BoacTsa lIeno

_ 2lt)7 _) IRII - IOOU - _R

2 MeTO)l 1t30XPOH 2

Dpl-I rrpOBCJIeIlJlI aHallleerH4eCKlIX IICClenOB3mni JlCMorpacentnshyleCKne lTpOUeCCbl MoryT 6JITb 13Ytellb perpOCnelltTIlBHO no OTshyJefbHbIM HHTepeCYIOllII~1 HccnenOB3Te1H XpOHO10rtflJeCI(lJM n(-p~loshy

aai TaK B03MO)JHO cpaBIIHTeJlbHOe H3y~el--me pOJKIae10CTH

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J1Tuax Tpex 1I3MepeliHii

I 06wenpIIHflTIJC B I ac rOllwee apeln GpyTTO 11 flerro - 1OjJrVIIllIfCHTbI BocnrOIf3BOnCTB3 IICIIIIC111101Cfl IICCKOJlbKO THialle II o603I1a IIBTOT I) 6pYTTOshyKOltjJijllTUlICIiT (B3lOIlOii rpy6blii nOKa3aTC~b) BOCrrpOll31l01lCTila - 4IC10 lC60shyIltK POC1ClillbIX Il qClIlC~1 OJ1I1Oli (llllllIfIiOli 3a uel nJlO)l06HTblil nepHOD cc WiIlH II 2) neTTo-Ko3cjJltjlHlHleHT (OtIllWlHHblf DOK33aTCb aOCllpOIl31l0ilCTB3 mlla3)Tlt1[ IIIICToro t ocnpo1l3BocTlla) - TO iKe COOTH OWeHlli MBTtpeii Ii l104Cshypdi L10 C YTO~I j1a3~H pOI3 c~lepTH(ICTII gtKClIIlIIIH B B03pacTc 10 50 JleT (Kolla 11J10JlODIiTOro lleplIOJla KIL3HI ilCllllllIllW) OrpaKellHWX B TaOJIIIllaX CMCPTtIOCTI )h(IICKOro 113tCJICllliR J(TOHIKY BWIflC tellust 3TlIX 1I0Ka1aTeeii eM I) A 51 [j 0 $I pc K II ii Kypc1e~lOrpal~IIleCloli e1-aTIiCTIIhIImiddot M 1945 eTp 84- 90 2) A 5I [) 0 SI P ( I II II II n n III Y III e p 11 It laquolJeMorpacjJllqc(laR CTaTHCTllIlt8 M 1955 erp 290---3UO A M_ J e p Ilt 0 11 laquoJlc~OrJlacjJlIllecKaR CTaTIICTIIKaraquo 1950 eTp l ui [G6 _ Ped

2 l M TllOI( CTp 22 c(i(lPHIIK1

1middot0

Ta6J11lua 5 nOKa3blBal0llafl pacnpelleJlCHlle pO)lJleIlIIH flO B03shypacTY )eHllHR B MOMellT o6CJleIoBamHI (nowegtKalllCe) il no IIX

B03paCTY B MOfeIlT P021nellllH peGeHllta (cKa3yeMoe) 11aeT B03shyMOiKHOCTb pacnpeneJlNIIHI ITO COOTBeTCTBYIOUlIIM oloIarOHaJlflM Tex Ie C06h1TIIH no XpOIIOJlOrHlJeC[lIM llaTa~1 To iKe B CJ1Y4ae pacnpcshy

nCJ1elilHl yMepwHx no taTe POgtIlt)JCHlm II B03paCTY CMepTIl H T )I

3m n~larOllaJlH HOCHT na3BaHHC 1130XpOI (JIeKcHc-KHanrr) T c J111 lTJlIl COelIlIl5IOWIIX TOllKII c06bITmi OJlIl1aKOBOro BpeMeHloI MOgtKshy110 rOBopllTb He TOJlblW 06 H30XpOlax MIHH~X HO II 06 H30XpOH

HbX nJlOwanHX (lf30XpOHHbIX nOJllHOHax) orpalllllleHHbIx oBYfH H30xpoHa MI1 nooctteTbI no 1oI30xpoHaM no l30XpOllllblllt nOllHroshy

113M naIOT pacnpenerrCIIle OCHOBHoil cOBoKynIlOCTl (pOgtKJ1eHni-i CMcpTeii II T a) no COOTBeTCTBYIOWHM XpOIlOJlOrH4eCI-IM neposhy

ua1 COBoKyrrHocTu npoiKlfTblX leT nMI Bceil 06cleJOBaIlHo~1 rpynshylTbl B Ka)IO-1 B03paCHIOM npOMCiltyTKC B aaIlIlOM XpOIIOJlOnPl eCshyKO neplfO]e nOJlYlfalOTCSl nYTeM COOTBeTCTBYIOlleii iOJlcplI~aUllll 06urlHhlX MeTOnos HalJeTHbI( p~UIOB

nOpHJIOK BblpoundHCJ1eIlHH COBOIYlTIIOCTI npOgtKHThiX nou Ha6molleshy

lIIeM JleT AJU Bceii r p ynnbT o6cneoOBaHHbrX 3a BCCb nepffOn HX

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ECJlH Fle06xoalTMO yqeCTb eme TOT JIll IiHoii POIIOJIOrHlleCKuii

nepon TO YCTaHasmlBaeTCH S03paCTHoe paCnpelleJiCHHe )l(el-llllHH Ha lIa~laJIO II KOlieu 3T01O neplJOlla ~ITO oOCTlraeTC5I COOTseTCTB)shy

IOlleH peoYKUHeii E03paCTTIOro pacnpe(CJleIHHr HanpltMep -lT06rx nOJ1~mTb 113 MaTeplfaJ10B 06CJ1t~aoBaHH5I 1956 r B03pacTHoe pacshynpeneJleHHe 118fHIoro KOIJlelTlfsa B 1940 r cJlenye-r nCpeJlBrfllyTb p~o n o B03pacTHolI lUl( aJ1C Ha 1U leT_ Korll tleCTBo rrpO)llThlX JleT

Jt-IH KalKnoro B03pacTHoro npoMCgtKYTtlta nOJlY4aeTcSl nYTeM nocJleshyAOBaTeJlbHoro cyMMHposaHHH 11aHllbiX 0 BCTynHslUHx B uaHHo~1 B(3pacTe B TOT ItJHI IHIOi XpOIlOJllrlllJeCKHii TIepnon II nmJ1elOBashyleJlblIOro BhPHlTaHH5I AaUI-lbIX 0 BblCTynHsllHIX H3 3Toro )Kf XPOllO

nOrHlJeCKOrO nepKona B oaHHOM B03paCTe DOSlCllInt TeXHUKY BblllHCJlCllliH CJ1CoYIOlllIHI npllMepOM B Ta6J1HUC 5a npI1Be~teHbI HClIICIeIITH J(JlIrrelbI-lOCTH nepHOlOa

Ha6mOlleHII51 no S03paCTHblM rpynna~1 J1l5T COBJKYnIIOCfH o6cJleshynosamlblX B 1956 r )JClIl1lHH (2802 4elOAela) no If(lCTHhl1 nepllo

131 no 1941 r 1941 - 19middot15 rr bull 1946-1956 rr BblLJI-ICIleHHH nposhy113BcaeHhl C1CaYIOUIIfM o6pa30M B rparpax 2 4 It G nallo pacrrpEue shyJIC~II1P Bcell COBOKvnHOCTIi o6c~eJlOBaHllblx iKelfllnH no BOJpacl v na HallaTlO lltaiKuoro llaCrHOrO nerHlOJ1a COOTBeTcTBYOIllIle lltela

W)JlY1leHbl nYTCM peoyKIlllH B03paCTlIOrO pacnpe1eJleHlISl Ha MO ]lellT OOcleJlOB3IlHH (rroqa 6) Tal lU1f1 B03pacTlloro pacnpe-leshy

1eIHI5T Ad 1941 r (rpacpa 2) penYlltlrr51 npOH3SE1eHa H3 15 ller

lHl paClipcnCJ1elIliSl Ha 1946 r (rparplt1 4) - 1C1 10 leT B rpacpax 3 5 H 7 nplIBeneHbl aerIHllHlllJ npOiKHTWX neT no OTshy

aeJllgtlIb11 B03paCTHblM npOMeKYTKaM no KaKLlOIY tlaCT~oMy neshy

pilon) BW411cleHIHI 3TIIX BCJlHllfH npOlI3seueHbl cIeAYIOllHlI oGshypa30TII

141

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Ta6nllL35

PacnmiddotpellenCHHe pOlKJeHHH no BoapacTy amplaTep B MOMeHT POllOB

(o6c~eJoDaIlHe 1955 r )

B()j (laCT gtta lmiddotcpgt1 B MOM ellT pltJI101

B03p3CT ~nTcpll I o ~o ellT 06celloo31I11A

18 I 19 I 20 I 21 I 22 23 I 24 I 8 T JI

I 18 1955 19 1I 20 -2-1 shy21 1 3 1 shy22 I 1 1

4 -6-23 2 3 1 1 2 -2-~24 3

1 225 2 2 5 7

26 1 I 2 4 5 27 2 3 1 2 l 2

2R 1945 1 2 4 3 2 4 3

29 lt 3 2 I 2 41+130 L 5 1 3 1

- 7- 331 4 2 3 4 -2-132 2 3 5 2 5

6 -31 433 3 4 6 -3-34 2 3 5 5 4

35 3 4 7 3 4 7 36 2 3 6 l ) 5 37 2 j I 4 7 a If

33 1935 3 4 2 8 5 4

39 5 4 3 4 4 7I 6 3 8 (jJO -1- 5

--3shy41 2 2 1 5 7 3 3 42 4 6 - 3- 5 4 3

3 -2-143 2 1 4 3 11

44 3 2 () 4middot 6 - 2- 5 - 8shy45 3 l 7 4 4

46 5 4 3 3 5 6

47 5 5 1 3 4 48 2 7 2 5 ~ l

49 J 6 R C 5 l (j50 II CTapwe fi 4 8 9 7 9

Bcero pOlKneHHii 37 77 118 lIt 111 104 IIIl

B TOM IBcne no uepliOnaM

1945-1954 rr 7 18 23 21 26 32 34 1935--194+ rr 12 32 4J 46 47 42 50

110 1935 r 18 2fi 52 44 37 29 32

142

llJJ5I laCToro neplloll3 AO 1941 r (lpacpa 3) IHCJlO HaGmolleH HblX (np0gtKHTblX) JleT H s03pacTe 15 JleT 04eSHllHO paBHO tlllCJlY Bcex 2802 o6cJlellOSaHHblx )KeHtUMH 3a BbIeTOM 12middot~6 IKelJtUI-Hl He llOCnrrWHX K IWHlIY 3Toro lJaCTllOrO nepH01Ia 15 JleT T e 1556

BeJllFIIIHbl llMI B03pacroB 16 17 18 H T Jl nOJlY4eHbI nYTeM rrOCJleJlOBaTeJlbHOrO Bbl4HTaHHSI raquoltElltUHH HaXOllHBlllHXCSI K KOHUY nepHOJla B npeJlblJlYlUeH B03pacTHo~i rpynne (TaK )lJHI 16 JleT

1406 = 1556-150 DJHI 17 J1er 1359 = 1406-47 H T Jl) )lrUI 43CTIOro IlcpHoDa 1941-l945 fT (rpacenta 5) LIlII~10 HCl6

JlIOJleUllbIX (np0gtKWrbrx) JleT B B03pacTe 15 fleT OleSHJllO paBHo qHCJlY gtKeHlliHH sCTynJlBwHx B 3TOT nepHOa IO J]OCTIIgtKeIHlH ]5 neT (l2-l6) 3a BbllleTOM emIHIH He Il0CHlrWHX 3Toro B03paCTa JlO 1946 r (75 J ) MCKOMoe 1HCJ10 paBHO pa3fIOCTIl nllX lIHCeJl T e

1246-751 = 495 T 6 J1 11 L a 5a

HCIHCJlelllle npOJl(HTblX noll tlaonIOJleHlleM 1eT Anll Reeti rpynobl lIIeHutHH no neptO)laM

ItUI10 nposhyIt1J1hlyen 1I 0U

1Ifno lUCO lI uOICA shyIu( lUPfnpClICshy IUlllpCt shyPocnPClC middot npo~nn npOlKTbIX tHle Jle1JlIUUC IlOJlltaUlIOmiddot 11UHc1 CIUlCn[JoaIIThl~ 1I0JllliI61t10 Uil eeL)fCUHUIII

)KCUUUIll nolellHCMOJ 113611lt- ~ltellll(11I1D03p~C1 ACHlH leT nCpH OJl AO ACIlIlt4 neT no oOIn~T) 1t l 33

no BOIshy lIotflurTY Jtl 19~6 IOMCIITU JlO I ~middotI I r

rlOt middot middotY 1t3 lit 1J51i r1J11110 lhu r 1955 rr oIiCl1cIIlt)shy1911 r (Itw rr OnltlUI (1J5I r)

I 7 86~ 3 41

751 751

) 2-16 -no 15 31 2A02) 16 495155615 150 aq 27719164middot1998)6 140047

976 2733 18

75135y 1M aVti17 72 1Jd l79 ~65839241) f512S7

Y4671 25-1038 353) 211HI 42 135 II T ~ 1 T a

21 150 II T lI20 II T n

~3middot17I 7n72 84

22 46

24 23

80-42 )96tl T 1125 98

27 21)

7R 85

29 28

38 30 150 31 47 32 72 33 46 34 42

11 T bull u II T Jl t t

Bcero Q

BemfllHHbl llJlH B03paC10B 16 17 18 1I T lI nOJIytleHbl CJleJlYshyIOlUliM 06pa30M npH6aRJleHbl 1Ilcna )f(eflLLIH1J HaXOllHBWHXC5I K HaLIaJlY nepnoJJa B npeAblllytUej B03paCTHoii npynne (rpacpa 2) 11

143

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PaCnpelleJlelllle raquolteI-lllJHII no B03pacry B lOlgtleUT 06C~leLlOBai1l1H II B03paCTY BCT)nJ1eHH5I B 6paK I1Jlli npeKparneHHH 6paKa KdK yKashy3aHO Bhlwe LlaeT B03MOiKHOCTb pacnp el1e1HTb HX no xpOHOnOrHleshyClmM nepHonaM (LlHarOHaJ1blIbiM JTHHHflM I130Xp0l(nl) llJUr KaiK shy

loro B03paCTa nOrOlHO nOJlcqHThlBaeTen lHCJlO COCTOHBilHiX Ii 6pashyKe K KOIIUY nepHOLla (FlnlI ITO TO Me n epeWeJlWHX B COCTOHHHe 6paKa B cleJlYIOLUHii nepHOJl) TaK ~IHCJlO 23-JleTHHX COCTOHBillllX K 6paKe B 1945 r bull nOJTYllaeTC5J no ropH30HfaJlH B03paCTa 33 r Ol la ( Ha MOMeHT 06CJleIlOBaHHfI) rrYTeM CyMIgtIYI[l oaaHIUI BCryf1RBWRX B 6paK no 1945 r H BbllIITaHHH CJIYllaes np eIltpaLUCHH5I 6paKa

18 = 2+ 4 I 5 5 middotH~- 1

LfHCJ1a npoMHTblX leT B OpatJHOM COCTOHHIlI1 nJlSl OT)lenbHbI X

XpOH0J10rH4eCKHx nepHOJlOB (CM Ta6n 6a) orrpeJlenHIOTC5I cneJly shyIO[UHM 06pa30M rroroaI1O I1MI Karaquoltnoro B03pacTa nOCJlenOBaTeJ1bshy110 CYMMIlPYIOTC5I nepeweLltIllle B COCT05HlIe 6pallta T13 npeiJbICyweshyro nepHOla ( r pacpa 2) H BCTymwwHe B GpaK B llaHHOM B03pacTe If

B naHHOM nepnOl1e (rpacpa 3) Ii nOCJ1eJlOBaTeJlbIlO BblllHTalOTCH Dce npeKpanlBWlle 6paK (rpacpa 4) H nepeXOJl5IllJHe B COCTOfllHIC 6paKa B cJ1enYIOwuH n epHOlt (rpacpa 5) Tallt 4liCIJO np0gtKHTbIX OpalHblX JleT B B03pacre 19 J1eT I1J1H liIepHona 1945-1954 rr paBlfo

84= 38+2+ 48- 1- 3

JlSI 22 TIeT

160 = 154 + 6+18- 3-15 H T i

T a 6 Jl II [I a 6a

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(ipnKc lin 11118110 liPKC K KOIII Iu n tJIIIIUU 6pnllt H ncpllo middot ne po)1 (1945 r ) lIe l a (K l middot i~ 1 ) (1~IS- 1 9fimiddot1 r r)BO p UCl C

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T a 6 Jl II II a 6

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152

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TaThI OUCJIel1OBaHHH OlHOrO II loro nlte Kon1eKHIBa ~1O~KH0 oGbC 11Ishy

III1Tb 6 CBO)Ulble Ta6JIIIUhl CMepTIIOCTI1 (nepegtlllBaeMOCTlt) H BbI4IfCshy

JlHTb OCIlOBllble 6110MCTIJIILleCIWe np1i3HaKTi CPClHIOIO npotom([ shy

1eJlbllOCTb gtK1I3Hll K03QJcpllUHenT CMepTHOCTII CTaUHOliaporo HaC~shyre1Jll1H

TIp fl3y4ellflH rtepe)iHBae1OCTH 1eTe~i B oco6ellllOCTH B B03pashy

CTe JJO 5 JleT C I1X OTIJOCI1TeJIbHO 6blCOKHM KOHPCPUUHCHTOM CMepTIlOshyCTH MOgtKHO nOJlb30BaTbCf CpaBIIlITeJlbllO orpaHHlleHHbl M MaTepllashyJOM HanpoTIIB H3y4emle O-lepTHOCTIl B3pocnoro lIaCeJIeHII5I 6JIashy

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o pmKJaeMOCTJ1 resp nnOJlOBWrOCrn CMepTHOCTlI resp nepegtKHBashy

l MOCTH n03BOnHlQT oxapaKTepH30BaTb npoueCChl BoenpoH3BoJJcTBa

Il aCeJIelll1 H B BeCb~[a 6agtKfI blX JlOKa3aTeJIHX

i C~CAyCT ynoMllII)Tb eUtC oei )lItOM pa3J1i1 l llJI OPII unpoce MaTcpeii noJIYshyliIlOTCll Jl3HHbJe 0 Bcex GpaTbflX II ceCTpax OLlI0f rellep3UIIH ue33BIICHMO 01

TOro JlOgtKIIJI JIll KTO-JlHCiO 113 lUX 0 lOMeIlTa O(jCICliOBaUI5[ np onpoce B3pOCshyJIOrO H3CeJj(~H~1l 0 CYllb6e 6paTbCB II ceeTep nOJlytaIOTCl llatlllblC 0 upaTbR II ceCTpax OllHHX 11 -rex )KC reflepaUIliI HeJ3BliCHMQ 01 113Jl11IHSI [l gtKIIBbiX fiX MaTcpeil 110 olil13aTeJ1bHO npeAc-r3BJleHHLIX XOTll 6b1 OllllllM JIOgtKIIBWIiM Ha MOMeHl lla6JllOIlelUHI n p 063I1JIOM TaKIiM oCipasoM 113 lla6JJIOllellHlI BbJll3J13101 rpyn lthl CipaTbeB II cec-rep 1l0rO1C1BIIO SbllepIIHle K MOlellTy OCiCJlellOB 311 Il II

138

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pegtKHBa HHtI gtKeHCKO r o HaCeJleHH n c o oTBeTcTsYIOlUHX B0 3pncTHblX

nOKa3aTeJleii nlO)lOBIlTOCTYI YCTaHoBII Tb 411CJIO OgtKHJlaeMbIX pOgtKJleshy

Hflii JlJl51 Bc ero Jlaml Or O nOKOJleHIH H BblBecTI nOKa3aTeJH Bocnpo-

113BOJJCTBa I

XOA COOTBeTCTBYIOUlHX Bbl 4HCJIeHHH n p HBeJJeH B Ta6J1Hue 4 ( n o

naHHhlM 06cJleJJosaHHH MeH3eJlHHCKOro pai10Ha T aTapcKou

ACCP) 2 T a6Hua 4

Bocnpo H3BOACTBO nOKOn e ll iI (AnR n OKOneHH C Ha laJIbHOIi 1 HCne tI HOCT b lO B 1000 lK)

B03pacTllhlc middotpyn n

I

JltQ11IlCCTDO POlKII-TblX leT

I03IjlqllllHIIT 1I 1 OaD-PIITOCTH (npo ~cITI)

lI11cO pOlKJe ll n 8 A3l1ll0A 903paCTllO if

fP YIlIlc rp 2xrp a

4

15shy 19 20-24 25--21 30shy 34shy35-39 40-44 45-49

Bccro

2595 2456 2217 2056 I 934 L80 1 1685

4 1 28 0 320 275 238 12 3 28

106 687 709 565 46 1 222 47

2 797

M 1045 OonoaaSi npOIlOPUIII )K 1UUO

279 l(09cpqlllUlfCIlT BocnpOll3BOllCTB8 R = 2045 = 137

Ha OCHOBe COOTBeTCTBYIOUlHX TaOnJlIl CMepTHOCTIt (nepegtKHBaeshy

MOCTI) COCTaSJlfle-rcSl PHn BblpagtKalOllIllH LfHCJlO KeHIllHH JlOgtKB shy

UlHX JlO KagtKJlOrO B03paCTHOro npOMegtKYTKa (113 Ua4anbHOH tlliCshy

1eHHOCTH 1000 POAIIBWUXCfl gtKeHllllm) lUI tlTO TO Ke l(HCJlO leT

npOgtKHTblX U a HilblM nOKOneHIHH gtKelUlVfl B Jla HHOM B03paCTe

LlallHble 0 nepegtK~IBaeMOCTH MoryT 6bITb B311TbI H3 OOUltrX Ta6shy

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B rpallJe 2 Ta6nHUb 4 nOKa3aHO iO1H l leCTBO np0gtKFlTbIX JleT

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OGOUUUIDIllHM 3I1alHTCJlbllblll MaTepll3n no CTpaHaM MHpa C Ilb(tlllCJeIllICM rpy60ru IipYTTO) H 1I1CTOrn (HeTTO) nOI333TeJIl BOCnpOHIIlOACTBa

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2 lt1gt r My x a Mel blip 0 B K Bonpocy 06 113YleBHI BOCI1POH3BOJlCTfla lIoKOneHHil Ka3a ncKllii Men )Ipllan ~ 6 J93 1

3 I1MelOTcSI B BHJlY TaOJlIlUbI CMCp TIi OCTH COCTillgt1lCMbIC OprilHaIH o cP unHshy2JlbHOli CTaTIICTIIKJI na OCHOe3111111 llanRblX nepenHceif u yler3 tlBHIKCnllll Hacc 1ell Ifll

139

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K03centcentrUIHenTbf 06lleH rrJlOJQBUTOCTII (rpacpa 3) nO1y4eHul hpJ

TO~I )Je rrCCJlenOB~lI1HJl

DpOU3BeneHIl5T laHHblX rpacjgt 2 II 3 nalOT no llt3gtKJ1oii B03paCTshyHoii rpynne BeJIIl4HHY o)JlfJaelblX pOgtKleHII~i (rpacjgta 4) H fiX CYMshyMa 2797 Bblpa)faeT o)JIHtaeurolOC KOMI4CCTBO po)aefllrir OT Bcero noshylOJlCIH1~ )eIlWHT T c fIllCleHHOCTb reHepaUHlT BocnpoH3scnCHshy

hOll HaLJaJlbHhI~1 nOKOI(lle~1 lellllITlmiddot rrpli taIlHOM nOp5lnKe nepeshy

gtKIIBaHlIH

COOTI-lOllIellllC ~JIlCla POJlIIAUlllXCH MalhlJHKOB H oCBOlfeK no naHshy[(b1~1 aBTopa COCTaBJlHlO 1045 1000 OTCIOna lI3LJaJlbliaH lIllCJleIl shy

HOCTb Bcera nOKOJlCHIIH npHH51T~1 B 2045

CTleJoBaTeTbHo 1lt03cprp1UnellT BonpotI3floncTBa OPYTTO paBeH

2717 _Rb = ~o15= l 3r

I03rpcjgtlfuneliT BocnpoH3BoacTsa lIeno

_ 2lt)7 _) IRII - IOOU - _R

2 MeTO)l 1t30XPOH 2

Dpl-I rrpOBCJIeIlJlI aHallleerH4eCKlIX IICClenOB3mni JlCMorpacentnshyleCKne lTpOUeCCbl MoryT 6JITb 13Ytellb perpOCnelltTIlBHO no OTshyJefbHbIM HHTepeCYIOllII~1 HccnenOB3Te1H XpOHO10rtflJeCI(lJM n(-p~loshy

aai TaK B03MO)JHO cpaBIIHTeJlbHOe H3y~el--me pOJKIae10CTH

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J1Tuax Tpex 1I3MepeliHii

I 06wenpIIHflTIJC B I ac rOllwee apeln GpyTTO 11 flerro - 1OjJrVIIllIfCHTbI BocnrOIf3BOnCTB3 IICIIIIC111101Cfl IICCKOJlbKO THialle II o603I1a IIBTOT I) 6pYTTOshyKOltjJijllTUlICIiT (B3lOIlOii rpy6blii nOKa3aTC~b) BOCrrpOll31l01lCTila - 4IC10 lC60shyIltK POC1ClillbIX Il qClIlC~1 OJ1I1Oli (llllllIfIiOli 3a uel nJlO)l06HTblil nepHOD cc WiIlH II 2) neTTo-Ko3cjJltjlHlHleHT (OtIllWlHHblf DOK33aTCb aOCllpOIl31l0ilCTB3 mlla3)Tlt1[ IIIICToro t ocnpo1l3BocTlla) - TO iKe COOTH OWeHlli MBTtpeii Ii l104Cshypdi L10 C YTO~I j1a3~H pOI3 c~lepTH(ICTII gtKClIIlIIIH B B03pacTc 10 50 JleT (Kolla 11J10JlODIiTOro lleplIOJla KIL3HI ilCllllllIllW) OrpaKellHWX B TaOJIIIllaX CMCPTtIOCTI )h(IICKOro 113tCJICllliR J(TOHIKY BWIflC tellust 3TlIX 1I0Ka1aTeeii eM I) A 51 [j 0 $I pc K II ii Kypc1e~lOrpal~IIleCloli e1-aTIiCTIIhIImiddot M 1945 eTp 84- 90 2) A 5I [) 0 SI P ( I II II II n n III Y III e p 11 It laquolJeMorpacjJllqc(laR CTaTHCTllIlt8 M 1955 erp 290---3UO A M_ J e p Ilt 0 11 laquoJlc~OrJlacjJlIllecKaR CTaTIICTIIKaraquo 1950 eTp l ui [G6 _ Ped

2 l M TllOI( CTp 22 c(i(lPHIIK1

1middot0

Ta6J11lua 5 nOKa3blBal0llafl pacnpelleJlCHlle pO)lJleIlIIH flO B03shypacTY )eHllHR B MOMellT o6CJleIoBamHI (nowegtKalllCe) il no IIX

B03paCTY B MOfeIlT P021nellllH peGeHllta (cKa3yeMoe) 11aeT B03shyMOiKHOCTb pacnpeneJlNIIHI ITO COOTBeTCTBYIOUlIIM oloIarOHaJlflM Tex Ie C06h1TIIH no XpOIIOJlOrHlJeC[lIM llaTa~1 To iKe B CJ1Y4ae pacnpcshy

nCJ1elilHl yMepwHx no taTe POgtIlt)JCHlm II B03paCTY CMepTIl H T )I

3m n~larOllaJlH HOCHT na3BaHHC 1130XpOI (JIeKcHc-KHanrr) T c J111 lTJlIl COelIlIl5IOWIIX TOllKII c06bITmi OJlIl1aKOBOro BpeMeHloI MOgtKshy110 rOBopllTb He TOJlblW 06 H30XpOlax MIHH~X HO II 06 H30XpOH

HbX nJlOwanHX (lf30XpOHHbIX nOJllHOHax) orpalllllleHHbIx oBYfH H30xpoHa MI1 nooctteTbI no 1oI30xpoHaM no l30XpOllllblllt nOllHroshy

113M naIOT pacnpenerrCIIle OCHOBHoil cOBoKynIlOCTl (pOgtKJ1eHni-i CMcpTeii II T a) no COOTBeTCTBYIOWHM XpOIlOJlOrH4eCI-IM neposhy

ua1 COBoKyrrHocTu npoiKlfTblX leT nMI Bceil 06cleJOBaIlHo~1 rpynshylTbl B Ka)IO-1 B03paCHIOM npOMCiltyTKC B aaIlIlOM XpOIIOJlOnPl eCshyKO neplfO]e nOJlYlfalOTCSl nYTeM COOTBeTCTBYIOlleii iOJlcplI~aUllll 06urlHhlX MeTOnos HalJeTHbI( p~UIOB

nOpHJIOK BblpoundHCJ1eIlHH COBOIYlTIIOCTI npOgtKHThiX nou Ha6molleshy

lIIeM JleT AJU Bceii r p ynnbT o6cneoOBaHHbrX 3a BCCb nepffOn HX

iKII3HH B B03paCTe CTaprue 15 neT npl1Se]JeH BblllIe (Ta6Jl 1 CTp 135)

ECJlH Fle06xoalTMO yqeCTb eme TOT JIll IiHoii POIIOJIOrHlleCKuii

nepon TO YCTaHasmlBaeTCH S03paCTHoe paCnpelleJiCHHe )l(el-llllHH Ha lIa~laJIO II KOlieu 3T01O neplJOlla ~ITO oOCTlraeTC5I COOTseTCTB)shy

IOlleH peoYKUHeii E03paCTTIOro pacnpe(CJleIHHr HanpltMep -lT06rx nOJ1~mTb 113 MaTeplfaJ10B 06CJ1t~aoBaHH5I 1956 r B03pacTHoe pacshynpeneJleHHe 118fHIoro KOIJlelTlfsa B 1940 r cJlenye-r nCpeJlBrfllyTb p~o n o B03pacTHolI lUl( aJ1C Ha 1U leT_ Korll tleCTBo rrpO)llThlX JleT

Jt-IH KalKnoro B03pacTHoro npoMCgtKYTtlta nOJlY4aeTcSl nYTeM nocJleshyAOBaTeJlbHoro cyMMHposaHHH 11aHllbiX 0 BCTynHslUHx B uaHHo~1 B(3pacTe B TOT ItJHI IHIOi XpOIlOJllrlllJeCKHii TIepnon II nmJ1elOBashyleJlblIOro BhPHlTaHH5I AaUI-lbIX 0 BblCTynHsllHIX H3 3Toro )Kf XPOllO

nOrHlJeCKOrO nepKona B oaHHOM B03paCTe DOSlCllInt TeXHUKY BblllHCJlCllliH CJ1CoYIOlllIHI npllMepOM B Ta6J1HUC 5a npI1Be~teHbI HClIICIeIITH J(JlIrrelbI-lOCTH nepHOlOa

Ha6mOlleHII51 no S03paCTHblM rpynna~1 J1l5T COBJKYnIIOCfH o6cJleshynosamlblX B 1956 r )JClIl1lHH (2802 4elOAela) no If(lCTHhl1 nepllo

131 no 1941 r 1941 - 19middot15 rr bull 1946-1956 rr BblLJI-ICIleHHH nposhy113BcaeHhl C1CaYIOUIIfM o6pa30M B rparpax 2 4 It G nallo pacrrpEue shyJIC~II1P Bcell COBOKvnHOCTIi o6c~eJlOBaHllblx iKelfllnH no BOJpacl v na HallaTlO lltaiKuoro llaCrHOrO nerHlOJ1a COOTBeTcTBYOIllIle lltela

W)JlY1leHbl nYTCM peoyKIlllH B03paCTlIOrO pacnpe1eJleHlISl Ha MO ]lellT OOcleJlOB3IlHH (rroqa 6) Tal lU1f1 B03pacTlloro pacnpe-leshy

1eIHI5T Ad 1941 r (rpacpa 2) penYlltlrr51 npOH3SE1eHa H3 15 ller

lHl paClipcnCJ1elIliSl Ha 1946 r (rparplt1 4) - 1C1 10 leT B rpacpax 3 5 H 7 nplIBeneHbl aerIHllHlllJ npOiKHTWX neT no OTshy

aeJllgtlIb11 B03paCTHblM npOMeKYTKaM no KaKLlOIY tlaCT~oMy neshy

pilon) BW411cleHIHI 3TIIX BCJlHllfH npOlI3seueHbl cIeAYIOllHlI oGshypa30TII

141

----

Ta6nllL35

PacnmiddotpellenCHHe pOlKJeHHH no BoapacTy amplaTep B MOMeHT POllOB

(o6c~eJoDaIlHe 1955 r )

B()j (laCT gtta lmiddotcpgt1 B MOM ellT pltJI101

B03p3CT ~nTcpll I o ~o ellT 06celloo31I11A

18 I 19 I 20 I 21 I 22 23 I 24 I 8 T JI

I 18 1955 19 1I 20 -2-1 shy21 1 3 1 shy22 I 1 1

4 -6-23 2 3 1 1 2 -2-~24 3

1 225 2 2 5 7

26 1 I 2 4 5 27 2 3 1 2 l 2

2R 1945 1 2 4 3 2 4 3

29 lt 3 2 I 2 41+130 L 5 1 3 1

- 7- 331 4 2 3 4 -2-132 2 3 5 2 5

6 -31 433 3 4 6 -3-34 2 3 5 5 4

35 3 4 7 3 4 7 36 2 3 6 l ) 5 37 2 j I 4 7 a If

33 1935 3 4 2 8 5 4

39 5 4 3 4 4 7I 6 3 8 (jJO -1- 5

--3shy41 2 2 1 5 7 3 3 42 4 6 - 3- 5 4 3

3 -2-143 2 1 4 3 11

44 3 2 () 4middot 6 - 2- 5 - 8shy45 3 l 7 4 4

46 5 4 3 3 5 6

47 5 5 1 3 4 48 2 7 2 5 ~ l

49 J 6 R C 5 l (j50 II CTapwe fi 4 8 9 7 9

Bcero pOlKneHHii 37 77 118 lIt 111 104 IIIl

B TOM IBcne no uepliOnaM

1945-1954 rr 7 18 23 21 26 32 34 1935--194+ rr 12 32 4J 46 47 42 50

110 1935 r 18 2fi 52 44 37 29 32

142

llJJ5I laCToro neplloll3 AO 1941 r (lpacpa 3) IHCJlO HaGmolleH HblX (np0gtKHTblX) JleT H s03pacTe 15 JleT 04eSHllHO paBHO tlllCJlY Bcex 2802 o6cJlellOSaHHblx )KeHtUMH 3a BbIeTOM 12middot~6 IKelJtUI-Hl He llOCnrrWHX K IWHlIY 3Toro lJaCTllOrO nepH01Ia 15 JleT T e 1556

BeJllFIIIHbl llMI B03pacroB 16 17 18 H T Jl nOJlY4eHbI nYTeM rrOCJleJlOBaTeJlbHOrO Bbl4HTaHHSI raquoltElltUHH HaXOllHBlllHXCSI K KOHUY nepHOJla B npeJlblJlYlUeH B03pacTHo~i rpynne (TaK )lJHI 16 JleT

1406 = 1556-150 DJHI 17 J1er 1359 = 1406-47 H T Jl) )lrUI 43CTIOro IlcpHoDa 1941-l945 fT (rpacenta 5) LIlII~10 HCl6

JlIOJleUllbIX (np0gtKWrbrx) JleT B B03pacTe 15 fleT OleSHJllO paBHo qHCJlY gtKeHlliHH sCTynJlBwHx B 3TOT nepHOa IO J]OCTIIgtKeIHlH ]5 neT (l2-l6) 3a BbllleTOM emIHIH He Il0CHlrWHX 3Toro B03paCTa JlO 1946 r (75 J ) MCKOMoe 1HCJ10 paBHO pa3fIOCTIl nllX lIHCeJl T e

1246-751 = 495 T 6 J1 11 L a 5a

HCIHCJlelllle npOJl(HTblX noll tlaonIOJleHlleM 1eT Anll Reeti rpynobl lIIeHutHH no neptO)laM

ItUI10 nposhyIt1J1hlyen 1I 0U

1Ifno lUCO lI uOICA shyIu( lUPfnpClICshy IUlllpCt shyPocnPClC middot npo~nn npOlKTbIX tHle Jle1JlIUUC IlOJlltaUlIOmiddot 11UHc1 CIUlCn[JoaIIThl~ 1I0JllliI61t10 Uil eeL)fCUHUIII

)KCUUUIll nolellHCMOJ 113611lt- ~ltellll(11I1D03p~C1 ACHlH leT nCpH OJl AO ACIlIlt4 neT no oOIn~T) 1t l 33

no BOIshy lIotflurTY Jtl 19~6 IOMCIITU JlO I ~middotI I r

rlOt middot middotY 1t3 lit 1J51i r1J11110 lhu r 1955 rr oIiCl1cIIlt)shy1911 r (Itw rr OnltlUI (1J5I r)

I 7 86~ 3 41

751 751

) 2-16 -no 15 31 2A02) 16 495155615 150 aq 27719164middot1998)6 140047

976 2733 18

75135y 1M aVti17 72 1Jd l79 ~65839241) f512S7

Y4671 25-1038 353) 211HI 42 135 II T ~ 1 T a

21 150 II T lI20 II T n

~3middot17I 7n72 84

22 46

24 23

80-42 )96tl T 1125 98

27 21)

7R 85

29 28

38 30 150 31 47 32 72 33 46 34 42

11 T bull u II T Jl t t

Bcero Q

BemfllHHbl llJlH B03paC10B 16 17 18 1I T lI nOJIytleHbl CJleJlYshyIOlUliM 06pa30M npH6aRJleHbl 1Ilcna )f(eflLLIH1J HaXOllHBWHXC5I K HaLIaJlY nepnoJJa B npeAblllytUej B03paCTHoii npynne (rpacpa 2) 11

143

- -- ---

PaCnpelleJlelllle raquolteI-lllJHII no B03pacry B lOlgtleUT 06C~leLlOBai1l1H II B03paCTY BCT)nJ1eHH5I B 6paK I1Jlli npeKparneHHH 6paKa KdK yKashy3aHO Bhlwe LlaeT B03MOiKHOCTb pacnp el1e1HTb HX no xpOHOnOrHleshyClmM nepHonaM (LlHarOHaJ1blIbiM JTHHHflM I130Xp0l(nl) llJUr KaiK shy

loro B03paCTa nOrOlHO nOJlcqHThlBaeTen lHCJlO COCTOHBilHiX Ii 6pashyKe K KOIIUY nepHOLla (FlnlI ITO TO Me n epeWeJlWHX B COCTOHHHe 6paKa B cleJlYIOLUHii nepHOJl) TaK ~IHCJlO 23-JleTHHX COCTOHBillllX K 6paKe B 1945 r bull nOJTYllaeTC5J no ropH30HfaJlH B03paCTa 33 r Ol la ( Ha MOMeHT 06CJleIlOBaHHfI) rrYTeM CyMIgtIYI[l oaaHIUI BCryf1RBWRX B 6paK no 1945 r H BbllIITaHHH CJIYllaes np eIltpaLUCHH5I 6paKa

18 = 2+ 4 I 5 5 middotH~- 1

LfHCJ1a npoMHTblX leT B OpatJHOM COCTOHHIlI1 nJlSl OT)lenbHbI X

XpOH0J10rH4eCKHx nepHOJlOB (CM Ta6n 6a) orrpeJlenHIOTC5I cneJly shyIO[UHM 06pa30M rroroaI1O I1MI Karaquoltnoro B03pacTa nOCJlenOBaTeJ1bshy110 CYMMIlPYIOTC5I nepeweLltIllle B COCT05HlIe 6pallta T13 npeiJbICyweshyro nepHOla ( r pacpa 2) H BCTymwwHe B GpaK B llaHHOM B03pacTe If

B naHHOM nepnOl1e (rpacpa 3) Ii nOCJ1eJlOBaTeJlbIlO BblllHTalOTCH Dce npeKpanlBWlle 6paK (rpacpa 4) H nepeXOJl5IllJHe B COCTOfllHIC 6paKa B cJ1enYIOwuH n epHOlt (rpacpa 5) Tallt 4liCIJO np0gtKHTbIX OpalHblX JleT B B03pacre 19 J1eT I1J1H liIepHona 1945-1954 rr paBlfo

84= 38+2+ 48- 1- 3

JlSI 22 TIeT

160 = 154 + 6+18- 3-15 H T i

T a 6 Jl II [I a 6a

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(ipnKc lin 11118110 liPKC K KOIII Iu n tJIIIIUU 6pnllt H ncpllo middot ne po)1 (1945 r ) lIe l a (K l middot i~ 1 ) (1~IS- 1 9fimiddot1 r r)BO p UCl C

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T a 6 Jl II II a 6

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6 Be H II 6 e p r B MeronIlKa H TeIIIlKa CT3TliCTHKU B nplIJlogtKellllH couliallbllOi 6lonortll1 nepeBoll nOll pCLl A B MOJIhKOB3 M 1928

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152

12 C II H Ii e B 11 q r n BOJloroncKaSl KpCcTb5lHKa u ee peIJelloK M 1929 13 Til MME C OmgtT 13YleIlHSI eCteCTBeliBOro llB10KeBIUI uacelleHIHI B

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~l~li s li cs of families L 1879 19 K nap p L D ie sterblichkeit in Sachsen leipzig 1869 20 K u C z i ns k y R The balance of barlhs an d deaths N J 1928 21 Wei 0 b erg W Die Kinder cler Tuberkulosen LeIpzig 1913

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DpOU3BeneHIl5T laHHblX rpacjgt 2 II 3 nalOT no llt3gtKJ1oii B03paCTshyHoii rpynne BeJIIl4HHY o)JlfJaelblX pOgtKleHII~i (rpacjgta 4) H fiX CYMshyMa 2797 Bblpa)faeT o)JIHtaeurolOC KOMI4CCTBO po)aefllrir OT Bcero noshylOJlCIH1~ )eIlWHT T c fIllCleHHOCTb reHepaUHlT BocnpoH3scnCHshy

hOll HaLJaJlbHhI~1 nOKOI(lle~1 lellllITlmiddot rrpli taIlHOM nOp5lnKe nepeshy

gtKIIBaHlIH

COOTI-lOllIellllC ~JIlCla POJlIIAUlllXCH MalhlJHKOB H oCBOlfeK no naHshy[(b1~1 aBTopa COCTaBJlHlO 1045 1000 OTCIOna lI3LJaJlbliaH lIllCJleIl shy

HOCTb Bcera nOKOJlCHIIH npHH51T~1 B 2045

CTleJoBaTeTbHo 1lt03cprp1UnellT BonpotI3floncTBa OPYTTO paBeH

2717 _Rb = ~o15= l 3r

I03rpcjgtlfuneliT BocnpoH3BoacTsa lIeno

_ 2lt)7 _) IRII - IOOU - _R

2 MeTO)l 1t30XPOH 2

Dpl-I rrpOBCJIeIlJlI aHallleerH4eCKlIX IICClenOB3mni JlCMorpacentnshyleCKne lTpOUeCCbl MoryT 6JITb 13Ytellb perpOCnelltTIlBHO no OTshyJefbHbIM HHTepeCYIOllII~1 HccnenOB3Te1H XpOHO10rtflJeCI(lJM n(-p~loshy

aai TaK B03MO)JHO cpaBIIHTeJlbHOe H3y~el--me pOJKIae10CTH

cepTHOCTIi npoueCC05 Bocnp01l3BonCTS3 rrace1ellllH 3a neplIOJlh1 10peSOJ1l0UHOIHLlir (ao 19 18 r ) H nOCJlEpeBOJIlOUHOHHblii 3a uoshyBoeHHblii (1918-19middot10) II 1l0CJleBOeffliJlj H 3a 6oec lleTa~bHble XpoHO10rlf1-leCIltlC nepollhl (lla nplnlep 5- 1O-1eTH lie II T n) 3TO ooecne4HBaeTC51 npmleleHlIEM MeTona 1I30XPOf OCHOBalIIIOlO na pacnpeleJleHlI1 cooTBer crByrOllI1X naHHblX B TaK Ha3hTSaelblX Ta6shy

J1Tuax Tpex 1I3MepeliHii

I 06wenpIIHflTIJC B I ac rOllwee apeln GpyTTO 11 flerro - 1OjJrVIIllIfCHTbI BocnrOIf3BOnCTB3 IICIIIIC111101Cfl IICCKOJlbKO THialle II o603I1a IIBTOT I) 6pYTTOshyKOltjJijllTUlICIiT (B3lOIlOii rpy6blii nOKa3aTC~b) BOCrrpOll31l01lCTila - 4IC10 lC60shyIltK POC1ClillbIX Il qClIlC~1 OJ1I1Oli (llllllIfIiOli 3a uel nJlO)l06HTblil nepHOD cc WiIlH II 2) neTTo-Ko3cjJltjlHlHleHT (OtIllWlHHblf DOK33aTCb aOCllpOIl31l0ilCTB3 mlla3)Tlt1[ IIIICToro t ocnpo1l3BocTlla) - TO iKe COOTH OWeHlli MBTtpeii Ii l104Cshypdi L10 C YTO~I j1a3~H pOI3 c~lepTH(ICTII gtKClIIlIIIH B B03pacTc 10 50 JleT (Kolla 11J10JlODIiTOro lleplIOJla KIL3HI ilCllllllIllW) OrpaKellHWX B TaOJIIIllaX CMCPTtIOCTI )h(IICKOro 113tCJICllliR J(TOHIKY BWIflC tellust 3TlIX 1I0Ka1aTeeii eM I) A 51 [j 0 $I pc K II ii Kypc1e~lOrpal~IIleCloli e1-aTIiCTIIhIImiddot M 1945 eTp 84- 90 2) A 5I [) 0 SI P ( I II II II n n III Y III e p 11 It laquolJeMorpacjJllqc(laR CTaTHCTllIlt8 M 1955 erp 290---3UO A M_ J e p Ilt 0 11 laquoJlc~OrJlacjJlIllecKaR CTaTIICTIIKaraquo 1950 eTp l ui [G6 _ Ped

2 l M TllOI( CTp 22 c(i(lPHIIK1

1middot0

Ta6J11lua 5 nOKa3blBal0llafl pacnpelleJlCHlle pO)lJleIlIIH flO B03shypacTY )eHllHR B MOMellT o6CJleIoBamHI (nowegtKalllCe) il no IIX

B03paCTY B MOfeIlT P021nellllH peGeHllta (cKa3yeMoe) 11aeT B03shyMOiKHOCTb pacnpeneJlNIIHI ITO COOTBeTCTBYIOUlIIM oloIarOHaJlflM Tex Ie C06h1TIIH no XpOIIOJlOrHlJeC[lIM llaTa~1 To iKe B CJ1Y4ae pacnpcshy

nCJ1elilHl yMepwHx no taTe POgtIlt)JCHlm II B03paCTY CMepTIl H T )I

3m n~larOllaJlH HOCHT na3BaHHC 1130XpOI (JIeKcHc-KHanrr) T c J111 lTJlIl COelIlIl5IOWIIX TOllKII c06bITmi OJlIl1aKOBOro BpeMeHloI MOgtKshy110 rOBopllTb He TOJlblW 06 H30XpOlax MIHH~X HO II 06 H30XpOH

HbX nJlOwanHX (lf30XpOHHbIX nOJllHOHax) orpalllllleHHbIx oBYfH H30xpoHa MI1 nooctteTbI no 1oI30xpoHaM no l30XpOllllblllt nOllHroshy

113M naIOT pacnpenerrCIIle OCHOBHoil cOBoKynIlOCTl (pOgtKJ1eHni-i CMcpTeii II T a) no COOTBeTCTBYIOWHM XpOIlOJlOrH4eCI-IM neposhy

ua1 COBoKyrrHocTu npoiKlfTblX leT nMI Bceil 06cleJOBaIlHo~1 rpynshylTbl B Ka)IO-1 B03paCHIOM npOMCiltyTKC B aaIlIlOM XpOIIOJlOnPl eCshyKO neplfO]e nOJlYlfalOTCSl nYTeM COOTBeTCTBYIOlleii iOJlcplI~aUllll 06urlHhlX MeTOnos HalJeTHbI( p~UIOB

nOpHJIOK BblpoundHCJ1eIlHH COBOIYlTIIOCTI npOgtKHThiX nou Ha6molleshy

lIIeM JleT AJU Bceii r p ynnbT o6cneoOBaHHbrX 3a BCCb nepffOn HX

iKII3HH B B03paCTe CTaprue 15 neT npl1Se]JeH BblllIe (Ta6Jl 1 CTp 135)

ECJlH Fle06xoalTMO yqeCTb eme TOT JIll IiHoii POIIOJIOrHlleCKuii

nepon TO YCTaHasmlBaeTCH S03paCTHoe paCnpelleJiCHHe )l(el-llllHH Ha lIa~laJIO II KOlieu 3T01O neplJOlla ~ITO oOCTlraeTC5I COOTseTCTB)shy

IOlleH peoYKUHeii E03paCTTIOro pacnpe(CJleIHHr HanpltMep -lT06rx nOJ1~mTb 113 MaTeplfaJ10B 06CJ1t~aoBaHH5I 1956 r B03pacTHoe pacshynpeneJleHHe 118fHIoro KOIJlelTlfsa B 1940 r cJlenye-r nCpeJlBrfllyTb p~o n o B03pacTHolI lUl( aJ1C Ha 1U leT_ Korll tleCTBo rrpO)llThlX JleT

Jt-IH KalKnoro B03pacTHoro npoMCgtKYTtlta nOJlY4aeTcSl nYTeM nocJleshyAOBaTeJlbHoro cyMMHposaHHH 11aHllbiX 0 BCTynHslUHx B uaHHo~1 B(3pacTe B TOT ItJHI IHIOi XpOIlOJllrlllJeCKHii TIepnon II nmJ1elOBashyleJlblIOro BhPHlTaHH5I AaUI-lbIX 0 BblCTynHsllHIX H3 3Toro )Kf XPOllO

nOrHlJeCKOrO nepKona B oaHHOM B03paCTe DOSlCllInt TeXHUKY BblllHCJlCllliH CJ1CoYIOlllIHI npllMepOM B Ta6J1HUC 5a npI1Be~teHbI HClIICIeIITH J(JlIrrelbI-lOCTH nepHOlOa

Ha6mOlleHII51 no S03paCTHblM rpynna~1 J1l5T COBJKYnIIOCfH o6cJleshynosamlblX B 1956 r )JClIl1lHH (2802 4elOAela) no If(lCTHhl1 nepllo

131 no 1941 r 1941 - 19middot15 rr bull 1946-1956 rr BblLJI-ICIleHHH nposhy113BcaeHhl C1CaYIOUIIfM o6pa30M B rparpax 2 4 It G nallo pacrrpEue shyJIC~II1P Bcell COBOKvnHOCTIi o6c~eJlOBaHllblx iKelfllnH no BOJpacl v na HallaTlO lltaiKuoro llaCrHOrO nerHlOJ1a COOTBeTcTBYOIllIle lltela

W)JlY1leHbl nYTCM peoyKIlllH B03paCTlIOrO pacnpe1eJleHlISl Ha MO ]lellT OOcleJlOB3IlHH (rroqa 6) Tal lU1f1 B03pacTlloro pacnpe-leshy

1eIHI5T Ad 1941 r (rpacpa 2) penYlltlrr51 npOH3SE1eHa H3 15 ller

lHl paClipcnCJ1elIliSl Ha 1946 r (rparplt1 4) - 1C1 10 leT B rpacpax 3 5 H 7 nplIBeneHbl aerIHllHlllJ npOiKHTWX neT no OTshy

aeJllgtlIb11 B03paCTHblM npOMeKYTKaM no KaKLlOIY tlaCT~oMy neshy

pilon) BW411cleHIHI 3TIIX BCJlHllfH npOlI3seueHbl cIeAYIOllHlI oGshypa30TII

141

----

Ta6nllL35

PacnmiddotpellenCHHe pOlKJeHHH no BoapacTy amplaTep B MOMeHT POllOB

(o6c~eJoDaIlHe 1955 r )

B()j (laCT gtta lmiddotcpgt1 B MOM ellT pltJI101

B03p3CT ~nTcpll I o ~o ellT 06celloo31I11A

18 I 19 I 20 I 21 I 22 23 I 24 I 8 T JI

I 18 1955 19 1I 20 -2-1 shy21 1 3 1 shy22 I 1 1

4 -6-23 2 3 1 1 2 -2-~24 3

1 225 2 2 5 7

26 1 I 2 4 5 27 2 3 1 2 l 2

2R 1945 1 2 4 3 2 4 3

29 lt 3 2 I 2 41+130 L 5 1 3 1

- 7- 331 4 2 3 4 -2-132 2 3 5 2 5

6 -31 433 3 4 6 -3-34 2 3 5 5 4

35 3 4 7 3 4 7 36 2 3 6 l ) 5 37 2 j I 4 7 a If

33 1935 3 4 2 8 5 4

39 5 4 3 4 4 7I 6 3 8 (jJO -1- 5

--3shy41 2 2 1 5 7 3 3 42 4 6 - 3- 5 4 3

3 -2-143 2 1 4 3 11

44 3 2 () 4middot 6 - 2- 5 - 8shy45 3 l 7 4 4

46 5 4 3 3 5 6

47 5 5 1 3 4 48 2 7 2 5 ~ l

49 J 6 R C 5 l (j50 II CTapwe fi 4 8 9 7 9

Bcero pOlKneHHii 37 77 118 lIt 111 104 IIIl

B TOM IBcne no uepliOnaM

1945-1954 rr 7 18 23 21 26 32 34 1935--194+ rr 12 32 4J 46 47 42 50

110 1935 r 18 2fi 52 44 37 29 32

142

llJJ5I laCToro neplloll3 AO 1941 r (lpacpa 3) IHCJlO HaGmolleH HblX (np0gtKHTblX) JleT H s03pacTe 15 JleT 04eSHllHO paBHO tlllCJlY Bcex 2802 o6cJlellOSaHHblx )KeHtUMH 3a BbIeTOM 12middot~6 IKelJtUI-Hl He llOCnrrWHX K IWHlIY 3Toro lJaCTllOrO nepH01Ia 15 JleT T e 1556

BeJllFIIIHbl llMI B03pacroB 16 17 18 H T Jl nOJlY4eHbI nYTeM rrOCJleJlOBaTeJlbHOrO Bbl4HTaHHSI raquoltElltUHH HaXOllHBlllHXCSI K KOHUY nepHOJla B npeJlblJlYlUeH B03pacTHo~i rpynne (TaK )lJHI 16 JleT

1406 = 1556-150 DJHI 17 J1er 1359 = 1406-47 H T Jl) )lrUI 43CTIOro IlcpHoDa 1941-l945 fT (rpacenta 5) LIlII~10 HCl6

JlIOJleUllbIX (np0gtKWrbrx) JleT B B03pacTe 15 fleT OleSHJllO paBHo qHCJlY gtKeHlliHH sCTynJlBwHx B 3TOT nepHOa IO J]OCTIIgtKeIHlH ]5 neT (l2-l6) 3a BbllleTOM emIHIH He Il0CHlrWHX 3Toro B03paCTa JlO 1946 r (75 J ) MCKOMoe 1HCJ10 paBHO pa3fIOCTIl nllX lIHCeJl T e

1246-751 = 495 T 6 J1 11 L a 5a

HCIHCJlelllle npOJl(HTblX noll tlaonIOJleHlleM 1eT Anll Reeti rpynobl lIIeHutHH no neptO)laM

ItUI10 nposhyIt1J1hlyen 1I 0U

1Ifno lUCO lI uOICA shyIu( lUPfnpClICshy IUlllpCt shyPocnPClC middot npo~nn npOlKTbIX tHle Jle1JlIUUC IlOJlltaUlIOmiddot 11UHc1 CIUlCn[JoaIIThl~ 1I0JllliI61t10 Uil eeL)fCUHUIII

)KCUUUIll nolellHCMOJ 113611lt- ~ltellll(11I1D03p~C1 ACHlH leT nCpH OJl AO ACIlIlt4 neT no oOIn~T) 1t l 33

no BOIshy lIotflurTY Jtl 19~6 IOMCIITU JlO I ~middotI I r

rlOt middot middotY 1t3 lit 1J51i r1J11110 lhu r 1955 rr oIiCl1cIIlt)shy1911 r (Itw rr OnltlUI (1J5I r)

I 7 86~ 3 41

751 751

) 2-16 -no 15 31 2A02) 16 495155615 150 aq 27719164middot1998)6 140047

976 2733 18

75135y 1M aVti17 72 1Jd l79 ~65839241) f512S7

Y4671 25-1038 353) 211HI 42 135 II T ~ 1 T a

21 150 II T lI20 II T n

~3middot17I 7n72 84

22 46

24 23

80-42 )96tl T 1125 98

27 21)

7R 85

29 28

38 30 150 31 47 32 72 33 46 34 42

11 T bull u II T Jl t t

Bcero Q

BemfllHHbl llJlH B03paC10B 16 17 18 1I T lI nOJIytleHbl CJleJlYshyIOlUliM 06pa30M npH6aRJleHbl 1Ilcna )f(eflLLIH1J HaXOllHBWHXC5I K HaLIaJlY nepnoJJa B npeAblllytUej B03paCTHoii npynne (rpacpa 2) 11

143

- -- ---

PaCnpelleJlelllle raquolteI-lllJHII no B03pacry B lOlgtleUT 06C~leLlOBai1l1H II B03paCTY BCT)nJ1eHH5I B 6paK I1Jlli npeKparneHHH 6paKa KdK yKashy3aHO Bhlwe LlaeT B03MOiKHOCTb pacnp el1e1HTb HX no xpOHOnOrHleshyClmM nepHonaM (LlHarOHaJ1blIbiM JTHHHflM I130Xp0l(nl) llJUr KaiK shy

loro B03paCTa nOrOlHO nOJlcqHThlBaeTen lHCJlO COCTOHBilHiX Ii 6pashyKe K KOIIUY nepHOLla (FlnlI ITO TO Me n epeWeJlWHX B COCTOHHHe 6paKa B cleJlYIOLUHii nepHOJl) TaK ~IHCJlO 23-JleTHHX COCTOHBillllX K 6paKe B 1945 r bull nOJTYllaeTC5J no ropH30HfaJlH B03paCTa 33 r Ol la ( Ha MOMeHT 06CJleIlOBaHHfI) rrYTeM CyMIgtIYI[l oaaHIUI BCryf1RBWRX B 6paK no 1945 r H BbllIITaHHH CJIYllaes np eIltpaLUCHH5I 6paKa

18 = 2+ 4 I 5 5 middotH~- 1

LfHCJ1a npoMHTblX leT B OpatJHOM COCTOHHIlI1 nJlSl OT)lenbHbI X

XpOH0J10rH4eCKHx nepHOJlOB (CM Ta6n 6a) orrpeJlenHIOTC5I cneJly shyIO[UHM 06pa30M rroroaI1O I1MI Karaquoltnoro B03pacTa nOCJlenOBaTeJ1bshy110 CYMMIlPYIOTC5I nepeweLltIllle B COCT05HlIe 6pallta T13 npeiJbICyweshyro nepHOla ( r pacpa 2) H BCTymwwHe B GpaK B llaHHOM B03pacTe If

B naHHOM nepnOl1e (rpacpa 3) Ii nOCJ1eJlOBaTeJlbIlO BblllHTalOTCH Dce npeKpanlBWlle 6paK (rpacpa 4) H nepeXOJl5IllJHe B COCTOfllHIC 6paKa B cJ1enYIOwuH n epHOlt (rpacpa 5) Tallt 4liCIJO np0gtKHTbIX OpalHblX JleT B B03pacre 19 J1eT I1J1H liIepHona 1945-1954 rr paBlfo

84= 38+2+ 48- 1- 3

JlSI 22 TIeT

160 = 154 + 6+18- 3-15 H T i

T a 6 Jl II [I a 6a

HCIIICJleIlHe 6paIHoro nepHOJla (lHCna npOlKHTblX neT) J1nJl xpOHOnOrlfeCKOrO nepHOJla

QI(10 iKe lllIllIH 1I lIen n n PO)lt)11LfHeno +C IIlL( HlI lJucno 011 11 11111TO c H t B 6PU 4 110 M BCTynHulIlI II li1l 1H

Aalllloro BlnpaCT(I Jl3 UH OI O UO IpH CTa B n~plloJll COllOSl HlIII 8 LaJt~ p CKpJ shytOCTOSlUIllH 8 C()CTCl 5I BllJItX 9BIIJ p nCT (IWi 1111 r ) T il BllHt X 110 B03P KTC

(ipnKc lin 11118110 liPKC K KOIII Iu n tJIIIIUU 6pnllt H ncpllo middot ne po)1 (1945 r ) lIe l a (K l middot i~ 1 ) (1~IS- 1 9fimiddot1 r r)BO p UCl C

-Ii I 51 2 middot1

_18 -38 - 3 19 12 ~tl 3 84

() 20 1)11 1J9 f)21 2 15425 6

22 18 3 156 160 23 6 17IS 16 161 2middot1 l 2012 10 139

U T jI

1-[

BbiGTeHbl HaXOlI1BWneCn B Toil Ie B03paCTIlOH rpynlle Ha KOHel( 11epHOJla (rpacenta 4)

TaK 449 = 495+ 150- 196 398 = 449 + 47- 98 11 T JI

llJU qaCTHOro nepJoIona 1946-1955 rr (rpacpa 7) BeJllollfHHbl QJTH B03pacToB 16 17 18 If T 11 1l0JT)IeHbl anaJlOrHlIHO naUHblM ilJH nepnola 194 L- [945 rr

TaK 916=751 + 196- 31 976 = 916+98- 38 R T 11 Cnoc06 nOJl)Ie lfH5I Ilall ll bl X )lJl51 Bcero nepHona B ueJlOM (lpashy

ltJa 8) IlOfICneH Bhlwe npHBeLleM erne OllHlI npllMcp fI pllMeHeHIIH MeTOl1a H30XpOll I1JHl

Bb[~IHCJleHHH no n epHOl1aM IIPOlHTbIX 6pa rlIfblx JTeT PaClteT nposhyH3BOLlHTCH no AallRblJI1 pacnpel1eJTeHH5 IeHlLUB no B03paCTY B MOshyMeHT o6CJTelOBaHHH (1956 r) H no B03pacTY scrynrleHHH B 6paK 1-1 ero npel(parneHHH (Ta61J 6)

T a 6 Jl II II a 6

PacnpeAeneHHe 06cneJ(onaHI1b1x no B03pacTY nCTynneHHII H OpeKpalleJlHSI 6paxa

B(J3pa CT B MOICIiT oc rynnclIHR A (ipallt MII npC Kp3utCIIIIR Opa lw

Bf) 3K3CT 91()1 CllT I ltI r~CA()fJIJIfIiSl II I I I I IIS 19 ~n n 22 21 2middot1 II T JI

18 1955 19 J I shy-ashy20 1 t

VI

21 J 2 I 2 22 6 -4 1 5 TIl I 23 5 5 4 3 -=-1

324 6 7 2 2 1 21 I---= 25 4 4 5 32 )

26 5 7 7 j 2 2 2 17 4 ti 7 G 2 32 28 1945 2 j 2 1 29 1 ) 5 1 2(2 30 2 3 3 1 1 1 2 12 31 21 --~ I I 1 2 1 2

- 1-132 2 3 2 1 12 33 2 -1 5 5 1 ---3-1_1 34 3 4 -tl I 2 11) 1_1_

It T 11

fj 194r)-I)) ( 11

tl CTYIIIIIO B 6paK 38 IS middot19 21 J8 Hi ll

flPCK P iITIf 1(l 6pt K 2 1 Ii

1 Iml u ihTYI11UJlUIi X H 0lllli ylhOl~oI h IIHmiddotHrrc1c IUUI ilptM11IHIIIII UnC1C

J~J

C OC TORBWHC II 6pIIc

110 linI1915 r

2 5 6 G

18 12

[( T I

19Sr

3 6 6

15 17 20 16 29 21 I 15 1 1 11 8

19 13

f[ 1 L

rlpi - B atltmiddot

4 HccneAoBaHHe CBH3K AeMorpa$HQeCKHX npo~eccoB C APyrHMH SlBneHHSlMH

nepeA HccneuOBaTene 1acTO BCTae-r 3alla4a xapaKTepnCTHKI

JlerwrpaqI14eCKHX npoueccoB B CBgtl3H C HEKOTOPbIMH BagtKltblMrt

C06blTl51lH Il nepeMefa ~111 B )IH13HU lltonJleKTlIBa II OTJlCJlbHOrO J1 Hshy

Ila TaKoBo nanpurep H3YleHlle pO)KIlaeMOCTII JeTclltoii olepTshyHOCHI B CBH311 C pU3RIltIJl5IMlI B TpYlle MaTep (npoMblwfleHluuk

HRII HenpOMbIWleIIUblii) 1ltIrJ11 LLHeM Hml (fCYTCTBHeM 3amIT tiK KYshy

CTapllblM npO~lbICJlOr B KpeCTb5lHCKlIX CelMIX ncpeCeJlCHl-leM B HO

Bble )KIIJ1I1Ula H l iTO B CBoe BpeM5I 6b1rlO oco6emIO BaXltHO nCTynshyleHIleM B KO1JleKTIIBIOe X035l1IcTBO C aKKilHMaTII3aUlleii npB nepeshy

ceneHlIfI B ApKTHKY B BblCOlltoropHble paiiollbi II T bull t OGblllllO B

11 IIX c~yqaSIX InYlfellue BpoundleTCSI nYTeM conOCTaB1elllHI JtBYX KOJIshy

leKTrIBOB 06J1analOI1lIlX (( lie 061aaaIOlllIH laIlFlWM npR3H8KOM ()aHaKO npaKTlltIeCllI lIeB0310gtKHO nOlblCKaTb Ko1rJeKTIIBbl lOCT8shy

TOlIfO OJlIIOpOQHhle BO nce~1 OCTaJlbIlOM II 3TO eCTeCTBellllO 3aTshy

PY)lHfleT 3allltlllY IIcCnClOBClHIf51 If HepellKO uCJlaeT ee lIepa3pCllIIIshy

oIoii Tallt HanplfMep npB conOCTaBJleHllH llByX KOJlJ1eKTIISOBshy

gtKlmylllllx B 1I0BbiX lolax H )OiBYUlIiX B CTapLIX llOM8X - nml IICshy

crlenOBaHIIH BJ1IWHII51 iKlUlIllllHblX YCJlOBlIii lla pmK)laeMOCTb UJIH

lleTCKYIO CMepmOCTb lJpe3Bbl l JaiiHO TpYliHO rrCK~IOIlITb BIJII5IHIH~ f03paCTllblX CounaJlbHomiddot6blTOBblX 11 llpyrHx pa3111LJII~i MegtKlY Te-I npli allaMHeCTlI4eClltO1 ~leTOlle B03~IOgtKHOCTb o6pa30BalllHl 13 aaHshy

1I0ii reHepaJlbHOii COBQKynHocTII LIZCTHbiX COBOIltYIlHOCTeir no llaHshy

11O1Y npOll3BonbHO BbI6pallliOY npl13HaKY (HanpllMep nepeceneshy

lTle B HOBbie )lOMa) o6eurocneLJ HBaeT llOCTaTOlJHYIO oanopoaI-lOCTb

)TIIX LJaCTllbiX COBOIltynHocTeti B OCTaJlbHblX OHlOwellllfiX H nprrJ18er

nonylJ8(~lbTM p(3)~bTaTa1 HeoUxoaHMYIO T04HOCTb 3aCCb BCCJleshy

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AHalH1eCTHIeCKUH MeTO] C ycrrexoM npH~leHHJlC5I TaK1Ke np H 113Yl leIlTlII CltlHllTa p HblX 110CJlenCI BH~i BOllHbI (KpbIM) npH H3ytlemm nereCeJleHIHI B YCJlOBIHIX KpaHHero Cesepa (HHCTlHYT rI1rI1eHbI AMI-l CCCP) nJl5I nonY4eHHH oQIlJei-i xapaKTep HCTHKH JlellOrpashycPlIlfeCIUlX npoueccoB a TalOKe C ueJlblO KOImiddottTPOJlH nOJlIIOTbI H DOshycToBepHocTII nallllblX 0CPUUl-IaJlbHOH CTaTnCTHKH 3aKaBKa3b5I (3KCshynCDHUlIOIJllOe 06CJlellOnallfie M HcTIlTYTa opramnauHH 311paBooxpa shyHe~Jli51 H HCnOpmr vlelHUHHbI HM H A CeMail1Ko)

B pa3pa6oTKe allaMHECTH-leCKOrO MeTO[la H B npOBeJleH1l 1I 3KCshynellHUHOHHbtX 11 HllblX oGcneJ]oBaHHii npHHlIMano yqacTHe 3HatJHshyreJlbHOe tfHCJlO n a Yllnbl X pa6oTHHKOB CCCP

YKA3ATEJlb JIMTEPATYPbl

OIHOBHble HCTOlIHlKH no MeTonOJlOrltleCKIlM BonpocaM)

I n e K C U c CT3Tbn lTo TeopHH CT3TIICTltKIt lIaCeJIellllSl l TeopnIl npaBCTshyBCllltOI CT3THCHIKII 1 fp3qJlIlecKII~1 MeTOA HCCJleAOB3UHSl CMepT1l0Cni II noshyIHlllOK BblmlpaHIISl B nepeaOAeuro nOA peA Ll y rrpOBa Cn6 1906

2 13 a T K II C r A Ol[epKII 110 CTaTHCTIIIeCKOIi MeToaOJtOrllll I K Bonpocy MeTOLlOJlOrtlll IICH1c~eRIHI Cpe)lHerO B03pac-ra 11 MeTOLl H30Xpml Ill H3YleHue 11 10110[lIlTOCTII IV y13Y l lelHle CMCPTHOCTII V feOMeTplll[eCl(He r pacjJuKIl naceshyJI(IIUS VI AnaMHCCTIIIeC)HH leTO B AeMorpaClIlH laquoCOUB3J1bH3n rHrllella~ N 19 1928 ~2 2-3 12-13 N94 (14) 1928

3 13 a T Ilt II C r A K MeTonOJlOnlH 1t3YIJC8Hff BJHHIIIHl lIpocjJCCCl1l 113 nposhyIf~ BonHTe1bHylO cjJYHKlJUlO )KemllIIHbl laquofmUeHa 6C3onaCHoCTb It naTOnOrHH rpyn3 N2 2 M 1930

4 13 0 1I p C K 11 if A 51 It ill Ywe p H B n n Lle~lOrpacjJlJIleCKall CT3T11shyCTHKa M 1955

5 B bt C T P 0 B a B A LlocToeepHoCTb AamrblX nOJlylae~tblx alla~HleCTil-4(CKllM MeTonOM ABTopccjJepaT J1llccepTaUHH M 1954

6 Be H II 6 e p r B MeronIlKa H TeIIIlKa CT3TliCTHKU B nplIJlogtKellllH couliallbllOi 6lonortll1 nepeBoll nOll pCLl A B MOJIhKOB3 M 1928

7 My x 3 M C1 L Sl pO B ltIgt f K Bonpocy 06 113Y l lCIIlIIl BOCnpOl-l3BO1CtBa IIOKOMIlHJI K33alfcK~rit Mell iKypH3n 11 6 1931

8 My x a M e Jl blip 0 B (Igt r K Bonpocy 06 1I3YIJClIliH nepCgtF111J3eMOCTif B3poclloro TaTapCKoro 113CCJlelillfl Ka3 ~ICl livpH3n Ka3aH 1930

9 My x a 1 ell blip 0 B ltI) r OnblT 1l3Yle1l1lSl nJlOJlOllHTOlTIi gtKCtlWHIlbtshyTaTapKH 1I nepe)KUBaeMOCTll ee peOCHI3 K33 Men )KypHal Ka3a1lEo 1930

10 n a C B C K If ii B B II 51 x 0 H T O B A n a npliMelleHlfli aHaMlICCTlllemiddot CKoro MtTOla B 1eMOrp3cjJIlIl laquoT pYllLJ LleorpacjJllleCKOro l1UCflITYTa AKaae1I111 HayK CCCPraquo T I 1933

I I c 11 II K e B H LJ r n I fclICJleHlle cpeililcro B03paCT1J IIClcrynneHliH 1l[l1l3shyHllKa 110 Kllel11ltllllblM llerllOJl1M rnrn lna 11 3nl11C~1ItworH5Iraquo 1Ii III 1927

152

12 C II H Ii e B 11 q r n BOJloroncKaSl KpCcTb5lHKa u ee peIJelloK M 1929 13 Til MME C OmgtT 13YleIlHSI eCteCTBeliBOro llB10KeBIUI uacelleHIHI B

KI IUI 1 3Ka x T awKellT 1933 14 T If M I E C OnbtT c31l1ITapBo-cT3TlICTIIQCCKOrO UCClcuon3Hllll DnollO-

IITOCTIl TawlCclTT 1936 15 c 0 n T bI C C K I Ii E 11 K nonpocy 0 rtpl1Meliellll1t aHaMHeCTllltteCKoro

~I oaa [l c3I1HTapHo-cTaTlICTIlleCKHX HCCJlenOBalllHIX cr~lIueL1a II caHHTapHlI~ N 3 1949

16 C T P Y M H IT H II C r np06J1eMloi 3KOHOMIIKII TpyJJa [JI V n p06J1(Ma

pll K1l3eMOCTlI B pa60Qerf ceMbe M 1957 17 ill 0 pO ( 0 BaA A MCToLlHKa 1I3)1eHHSI nJlO)JOBlITOCTll qenOBeKa_

T alllKeHT 1935 18 A n s c I L An lhe rate of morlality of early period of life and t he other

~l~li s li cs of families L 1879 19 K nap p L D ie sterblichkeit in Sachsen leipzig 1869 20 K u C z i ns k y R The balance of barlhs an d deaths N J 1928 21 Wei 0 b erg W Die Kinder cler Tuberkulosen LeIpzig 1913

Eellt) COOTBeTCTBermo nOp5lLII(a nmKHTlHI no TaUJlIlUaM CMepTHOCTH CJCTaBJleHHbllll no nalIllbl~1 npOH3BenellHoro HCCl1eaOBa HlI51

K03centcentrUIHenTbf 06lleH rrJlOJQBUTOCTII (rpacpa 3) nO1y4eHul hpJ

TO~I )Je rrCCJlenOB~lI1HJl

DpOU3BeneHIl5T laHHblX rpacjgt 2 II 3 nalOT no llt3gtKJ1oii B03paCTshyHoii rpynne BeJIIl4HHY o)JlfJaelblX pOgtKleHII~i (rpacjgta 4) H fiX CYMshyMa 2797 Bblpa)faeT o)JIHtaeurolOC KOMI4CCTBO po)aefllrir OT Bcero noshylOJlCIH1~ )eIlWHT T c fIllCleHHOCTb reHepaUHlT BocnpoH3scnCHshy

hOll HaLJaJlbHhI~1 nOKOI(lle~1 lellllITlmiddot rrpli taIlHOM nOp5lnKe nepeshy

gtKIIBaHlIH

COOTI-lOllIellllC ~JIlCla POJlIIAUlllXCH MalhlJHKOB H oCBOlfeK no naHshy[(b1~1 aBTopa COCTaBJlHlO 1045 1000 OTCIOna lI3LJaJlbliaH lIllCJleIl shy

HOCTb Bcera nOKOJlCHIIH npHH51T~1 B 2045

CTleJoBaTeTbHo 1lt03cprp1UnellT BonpotI3floncTBa OPYTTO paBeH

2717 _Rb = ~o15= l 3r

I03rpcjgtlfuneliT BocnpoH3BoacTsa lIeno

_ 2lt)7 _) IRII - IOOU - _R

2 MeTO)l 1t30XPOH 2

Dpl-I rrpOBCJIeIlJlI aHallleerH4eCKlIX IICClenOB3mni JlCMorpacentnshyleCKne lTpOUeCCbl MoryT 6JITb 13Ytellb perpOCnelltTIlBHO no OTshyJefbHbIM HHTepeCYIOllII~1 HccnenOB3Te1H XpOHO10rtflJeCI(lJM n(-p~loshy

aai TaK B03MO)JHO cpaBIIHTeJlbHOe H3y~el--me pOJKIae10CTH

cepTHOCTIi npoueCC05 Bocnp01l3BonCTS3 rrace1ellllH 3a neplIOJlh1 10peSOJ1l0UHOIHLlir (ao 19 18 r ) H nOCJlEpeBOJIlOUHOHHblii 3a uoshyBoeHHblii (1918-19middot10) II 1l0CJleBOeffliJlj H 3a 6oec lleTa~bHble XpoHO10rlf1-leCIltlC nepollhl (lla nplnlep 5- 1O-1eTH lie II T n) 3TO ooecne4HBaeTC51 npmleleHlIEM MeTona 1I30XPOf OCHOBalIIIOlO na pacnpeleJleHlI1 cooTBer crByrOllI1X naHHblX B TaK Ha3hTSaelblX Ta6shy

J1Tuax Tpex 1I3MepeliHii

I 06wenpIIHflTIJC B I ac rOllwee apeln GpyTTO 11 flerro - 1OjJrVIIllIfCHTbI BocnrOIf3BOnCTB3 IICIIIIC111101Cfl IICCKOJlbKO THialle II o603I1a IIBTOT I) 6pYTTOshyKOltjJijllTUlICIiT (B3lOIlOii rpy6blii nOKa3aTC~b) BOCrrpOll31l01lCTila - 4IC10 lC60shyIltK POC1ClillbIX Il qClIlC~1 OJ1I1Oli (llllllIfIiOli 3a uel nJlO)l06HTblil nepHOD cc WiIlH II 2) neTTo-Ko3cjJltjlHlHleHT (OtIllWlHHblf DOK33aTCb aOCllpOIl31l0ilCTB3 mlla3)Tlt1[ IIIICToro t ocnpo1l3BocTlla) - TO iKe COOTH OWeHlli MBTtpeii Ii l104Cshypdi L10 C YTO~I j1a3~H pOI3 c~lepTH(ICTII gtKClIIlIIIH B B03pacTc 10 50 JleT (Kolla 11J10JlODIiTOro lleplIOJla KIL3HI ilCllllllIllW) OrpaKellHWX B TaOJIIIllaX CMCPTtIOCTI )h(IICKOro 113tCJICllliR J(TOHIKY BWIflC tellust 3TlIX 1I0Ka1aTeeii eM I) A 51 [j 0 $I pc K II ii Kypc1e~lOrpal~IIleCloli e1-aTIiCTIIhIImiddot M 1945 eTp 84- 90 2) A 5I [) 0 SI P ( I II II II n n III Y III e p 11 It laquolJeMorpacjJllqc(laR CTaTHCTllIlt8 M 1955 erp 290---3UO A M_ J e p Ilt 0 11 laquoJlc~OrJlacjJlIllecKaR CTaTIICTIIKaraquo 1950 eTp l ui [G6 _ Ped

2 l M TllOI( CTp 22 c(i(lPHIIK1

1middot0

Ta6J11lua 5 nOKa3blBal0llafl pacnpelleJlCHlle pO)lJleIlIIH flO B03shypacTY )eHllHR B MOMellT o6CJleIoBamHI (nowegtKalllCe) il no IIX

B03paCTY B MOfeIlT P021nellllH peGeHllta (cKa3yeMoe) 11aeT B03shyMOiKHOCTb pacnpeneJlNIIHI ITO COOTBeTCTBYIOUlIIM oloIarOHaJlflM Tex Ie C06h1TIIH no XpOIIOJlOrHlJeC[lIM llaTa~1 To iKe B CJ1Y4ae pacnpcshy

nCJ1elilHl yMepwHx no taTe POgtIlt)JCHlm II B03paCTY CMepTIl H T )I

3m n~larOllaJlH HOCHT na3BaHHC 1130XpOI (JIeKcHc-KHanrr) T c J111 lTJlIl COelIlIl5IOWIIX TOllKII c06bITmi OJlIl1aKOBOro BpeMeHloI MOgtKshy110 rOBopllTb He TOJlblW 06 H30XpOlax MIHH~X HO II 06 H30XpOH

HbX nJlOwanHX (lf30XpOHHbIX nOJllHOHax) orpalllllleHHbIx oBYfH H30xpoHa MI1 nooctteTbI no 1oI30xpoHaM no l30XpOllllblllt nOllHroshy

113M naIOT pacnpenerrCIIle OCHOBHoil cOBoKynIlOCTl (pOgtKJ1eHni-i CMcpTeii II T a) no COOTBeTCTBYIOWHM XpOIlOJlOrH4eCI-IM neposhy

ua1 COBoKyrrHocTu npoiKlfTblX leT nMI Bceil 06cleJOBaIlHo~1 rpynshylTbl B Ka)IO-1 B03paCHIOM npOMCiltyTKC B aaIlIlOM XpOIIOJlOnPl eCshyKO neplfO]e nOJlYlfalOTCSl nYTeM COOTBeTCTBYIOlleii iOJlcplI~aUllll 06urlHhlX MeTOnos HalJeTHbI( p~UIOB

nOpHJIOK BblpoundHCJ1eIlHH COBOIYlTIIOCTI npOgtKHThiX nou Ha6molleshy

lIIeM JleT AJU Bceii r p ynnbT o6cneoOBaHHbrX 3a BCCb nepffOn HX

iKII3HH B B03paCTe CTaprue 15 neT npl1Se]JeH BblllIe (Ta6Jl 1 CTp 135)

ECJlH Fle06xoalTMO yqeCTb eme TOT JIll IiHoii POIIOJIOrHlleCKuii

nepon TO YCTaHasmlBaeTCH S03paCTHoe paCnpelleJiCHHe )l(el-llllHH Ha lIa~laJIO II KOlieu 3T01O neplJOlla ~ITO oOCTlraeTC5I COOTseTCTB)shy

IOlleH peoYKUHeii E03paCTTIOro pacnpe(CJleIHHr HanpltMep -lT06rx nOJ1~mTb 113 MaTeplfaJ10B 06CJ1t~aoBaHH5I 1956 r B03pacTHoe pacshynpeneJleHHe 118fHIoro KOIJlelTlfsa B 1940 r cJlenye-r nCpeJlBrfllyTb p~o n o B03pacTHolI lUl( aJ1C Ha 1U leT_ Korll tleCTBo rrpO)llThlX JleT

Jt-IH KalKnoro B03pacTHoro npoMCgtKYTtlta nOJlY4aeTcSl nYTeM nocJleshyAOBaTeJlbHoro cyMMHposaHHH 11aHllbiX 0 BCTynHslUHx B uaHHo~1 B(3pacTe B TOT ItJHI IHIOi XpOIlOJllrlllJeCKHii TIepnon II nmJ1elOBashyleJlblIOro BhPHlTaHH5I AaUI-lbIX 0 BblCTynHsllHIX H3 3Toro )Kf XPOllO

nOrHlJeCKOrO nepKona B oaHHOM B03paCTe DOSlCllInt TeXHUKY BblllHCJlCllliH CJ1CoYIOlllIHI npllMepOM B Ta6J1HUC 5a npI1Be~teHbI HClIICIeIITH J(JlIrrelbI-lOCTH nepHOlOa

Ha6mOlleHII51 no S03paCTHblM rpynna~1 J1l5T COBJKYnIIOCfH o6cJleshynosamlblX B 1956 r )JClIl1lHH (2802 4elOAela) no If(lCTHhl1 nepllo

131 no 1941 r 1941 - 19middot15 rr bull 1946-1956 rr BblLJI-ICIleHHH nposhy113BcaeHhl C1CaYIOUIIfM o6pa30M B rparpax 2 4 It G nallo pacrrpEue shyJIC~II1P Bcell COBOKvnHOCTIi o6c~eJlOBaHllblx iKelfllnH no BOJpacl v na HallaTlO lltaiKuoro llaCrHOrO nerHlOJ1a COOTBeTcTBYOIllIle lltela

W)JlY1leHbl nYTCM peoyKIlllH B03paCTlIOrO pacnpe1eJleHlISl Ha MO ]lellT OOcleJlOB3IlHH (rroqa 6) Tal lU1f1 B03pacTlloro pacnpe-leshy

1eIHI5T Ad 1941 r (rpacpa 2) penYlltlrr51 npOH3SE1eHa H3 15 ller

lHl paClipcnCJ1elIliSl Ha 1946 r (rparplt1 4) - 1C1 10 leT B rpacpax 3 5 H 7 nplIBeneHbl aerIHllHlllJ npOiKHTWX neT no OTshy

aeJllgtlIb11 B03paCTHblM npOMeKYTKaM no KaKLlOIY tlaCT~oMy neshy

pilon) BW411cleHIHI 3TIIX BCJlHllfH npOlI3seueHbl cIeAYIOllHlI oGshypa30TII

141

----

Ta6nllL35

PacnmiddotpellenCHHe pOlKJeHHH no BoapacTy amplaTep B MOMeHT POllOB

(o6c~eJoDaIlHe 1955 r )

B()j (laCT gtta lmiddotcpgt1 B MOM ellT pltJI101

B03p3CT ~nTcpll I o ~o ellT 06celloo31I11A

18 I 19 I 20 I 21 I 22 23 I 24 I 8 T JI

I 18 1955 19 1I 20 -2-1 shy21 1 3 1 shy22 I 1 1

4 -6-23 2 3 1 1 2 -2-~24 3

1 225 2 2 5 7

26 1 I 2 4 5 27 2 3 1 2 l 2

2R 1945 1 2 4 3 2 4 3

29 lt 3 2 I 2 41+130 L 5 1 3 1

- 7- 331 4 2 3 4 -2-132 2 3 5 2 5

6 -31 433 3 4 6 -3-34 2 3 5 5 4

35 3 4 7 3 4 7 36 2 3 6 l ) 5 37 2 j I 4 7 a If

33 1935 3 4 2 8 5 4

39 5 4 3 4 4 7I 6 3 8 (jJO -1- 5

--3shy41 2 2 1 5 7 3 3 42 4 6 - 3- 5 4 3

3 -2-143 2 1 4 3 11

44 3 2 () 4middot 6 - 2- 5 - 8shy45 3 l 7 4 4

46 5 4 3 3 5 6

47 5 5 1 3 4 48 2 7 2 5 ~ l

49 J 6 R C 5 l (j50 II CTapwe fi 4 8 9 7 9

Bcero pOlKneHHii 37 77 118 lIt 111 104 IIIl

B TOM IBcne no uepliOnaM

1945-1954 rr 7 18 23 21 26 32 34 1935--194+ rr 12 32 4J 46 47 42 50

110 1935 r 18 2fi 52 44 37 29 32

142

llJJ5I laCToro neplloll3 AO 1941 r (lpacpa 3) IHCJlO HaGmolleH HblX (np0gtKHTblX) JleT H s03pacTe 15 JleT 04eSHllHO paBHO tlllCJlY Bcex 2802 o6cJlellOSaHHblx )KeHtUMH 3a BbIeTOM 12middot~6 IKelJtUI-Hl He llOCnrrWHX K IWHlIY 3Toro lJaCTllOrO nepH01Ia 15 JleT T e 1556

BeJllFIIIHbl llMI B03pacroB 16 17 18 H T Jl nOJlY4eHbI nYTeM rrOCJleJlOBaTeJlbHOrO Bbl4HTaHHSI raquoltElltUHH HaXOllHBlllHXCSI K KOHUY nepHOJla B npeJlblJlYlUeH B03pacTHo~i rpynne (TaK )lJHI 16 JleT

1406 = 1556-150 DJHI 17 J1er 1359 = 1406-47 H T Jl) )lrUI 43CTIOro IlcpHoDa 1941-l945 fT (rpacenta 5) LIlII~10 HCl6

JlIOJleUllbIX (np0gtKWrbrx) JleT B B03pacTe 15 fleT OleSHJllO paBHo qHCJlY gtKeHlliHH sCTynJlBwHx B 3TOT nepHOa IO J]OCTIIgtKeIHlH ]5 neT (l2-l6) 3a BbllleTOM emIHIH He Il0CHlrWHX 3Toro B03paCTa JlO 1946 r (75 J ) MCKOMoe 1HCJ10 paBHO pa3fIOCTIl nllX lIHCeJl T e

1246-751 = 495 T 6 J1 11 L a 5a

HCIHCJlelllle npOJl(HTblX noll tlaonIOJleHlleM 1eT Anll Reeti rpynobl lIIeHutHH no neptO)laM

ItUI10 nposhyIt1J1hlyen 1I 0U

1Ifno lUCO lI uOICA shyIu( lUPfnpClICshy IUlllpCt shyPocnPClC middot npo~nn npOlKTbIX tHle Jle1JlIUUC IlOJlltaUlIOmiddot 11UHc1 CIUlCn[JoaIIThl~ 1I0JllliI61t10 Uil eeL)fCUHUIII

)KCUUUIll nolellHCMOJ 113611lt- ~ltellll(11I1D03p~C1 ACHlH leT nCpH OJl AO ACIlIlt4 neT no oOIn~T) 1t l 33

no BOIshy lIotflurTY Jtl 19~6 IOMCIITU JlO I ~middotI I r

rlOt middot middotY 1t3 lit 1J51i r1J11110 lhu r 1955 rr oIiCl1cIIlt)shy1911 r (Itw rr OnltlUI (1J5I r)

I 7 86~ 3 41

751 751

) 2-16 -no 15 31 2A02) 16 495155615 150 aq 27719164middot1998)6 140047

976 2733 18

75135y 1M aVti17 72 1Jd l79 ~65839241) f512S7

Y4671 25-1038 353) 211HI 42 135 II T ~ 1 T a

21 150 II T lI20 II T n

~3middot17I 7n72 84

22 46

24 23

80-42 )96tl T 1125 98

27 21)

7R 85

29 28

38 30 150 31 47 32 72 33 46 34 42

11 T bull u II T Jl t t

Bcero Q

BemfllHHbl llJlH B03paC10B 16 17 18 1I T lI nOJIytleHbl CJleJlYshyIOlUliM 06pa30M npH6aRJleHbl 1Ilcna )f(eflLLIH1J HaXOllHBWHXC5I K HaLIaJlY nepnoJJa B npeAblllytUej B03paCTHoii npynne (rpacpa 2) 11

143

- -- ---

PaCnpelleJlelllle raquolteI-lllJHII no B03pacry B lOlgtleUT 06C~leLlOBai1l1H II B03paCTY BCT)nJ1eHH5I B 6paK I1Jlli npeKparneHHH 6paKa KdK yKashy3aHO Bhlwe LlaeT B03MOiKHOCTb pacnp el1e1HTb HX no xpOHOnOrHleshyClmM nepHonaM (LlHarOHaJ1blIbiM JTHHHflM I130Xp0l(nl) llJUr KaiK shy

loro B03paCTa nOrOlHO nOJlcqHThlBaeTen lHCJlO COCTOHBilHiX Ii 6pashyKe K KOIIUY nepHOLla (FlnlI ITO TO Me n epeWeJlWHX B COCTOHHHe 6paKa B cleJlYIOLUHii nepHOJl) TaK ~IHCJlO 23-JleTHHX COCTOHBillllX K 6paKe B 1945 r bull nOJTYllaeTC5J no ropH30HfaJlH B03paCTa 33 r Ol la ( Ha MOMeHT 06CJleIlOBaHHfI) rrYTeM CyMIgtIYI[l oaaHIUI BCryf1RBWRX B 6paK no 1945 r H BbllIITaHHH CJIYllaes np eIltpaLUCHH5I 6paKa

18 = 2+ 4 I 5 5 middotH~- 1

LfHCJ1a npoMHTblX leT B OpatJHOM COCTOHHIlI1 nJlSl OT)lenbHbI X

XpOH0J10rH4eCKHx nepHOJlOB (CM Ta6n 6a) orrpeJlenHIOTC5I cneJly shyIO[UHM 06pa30M rroroaI1O I1MI Karaquoltnoro B03pacTa nOCJlenOBaTeJ1bshy110 CYMMIlPYIOTC5I nepeweLltIllle B COCT05HlIe 6pallta T13 npeiJbICyweshyro nepHOla ( r pacpa 2) H BCTymwwHe B GpaK B llaHHOM B03pacTe If

B naHHOM nepnOl1e (rpacpa 3) Ii nOCJ1eJlOBaTeJlbIlO BblllHTalOTCH Dce npeKpanlBWlle 6paK (rpacpa 4) H nepeXOJl5IllJHe B COCTOfllHIC 6paKa B cJ1enYIOwuH n epHOlt (rpacpa 5) Tallt 4liCIJO np0gtKHTbIX OpalHblX JleT B B03pacre 19 J1eT I1J1H liIepHona 1945-1954 rr paBlfo

84= 38+2+ 48- 1- 3

JlSI 22 TIeT

160 = 154 + 6+18- 3-15 H T i

T a 6 Jl II [I a 6a

HCIIICJleIlHe 6paIHoro nepHOJla (lHCna npOlKHTblX neT) J1nJl xpOHOnOrlfeCKOrO nepHOJla

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JIlIH 3aKJIlO4aeTcsr B rOM 410 Ocsewast B enHHOM KOIITteHTpe OCHOB

l1 b1e JJeMorpacjgtnlleCKne npOueCCbJ OHII BMeCTe C TeM CpaSHTlTeJlbHO

Jler KO nOCTYllHbl KCK B OTliOllJelHIH cooHpanusr MaTepHaJla Tal( II s ero pa3pa60TKe B ClIly 3Toro aHaMHeCTlilfeCKHi MeTOD MOleT

OblTb np1I31laH (allt Ubi CTaHnapTOM lJlH 3 KCneDlIUHOHHbI X oocneno shy

eaHHii I

CJleJJyeT nOMlIHTb lITO npHMeReHl1e allaMHeCTH4eCKOro teTOJJlti

YMeCTHO rJlanHblM oOpa30M B Tex crYllaSlX JltorDa OTcyrcTBYIOT 1aHHbte npSlMoro Ha0J110Delll51 (perHcrpaUHst OcjgtlIItllaJlbIJaH CTashy

THCTIlIlta) JIl-f60 01111 Henane)lltHbl H HellpUMellHMbI K cneUHa1bHbl1

3ala4aM l-iCCJleDosartl1Sl AHaMHeCHl-I eCKlIi1 MeTOn B CCCP UhrJl npmleHel-f B pSljle 31(Cn eshy

lllIUIIOHHblX neMorpaqH4eCltHX 06CJleJJOBallllfl TaK lJa3blBaeMbiX Mashy

JlblX HapOJJrrOCTeii pSlD3 OKpallIlHblX [laUHOltalbHblX pecny6Jl iII

(BnepSble B 1925 r B K 3JHl blUKOii 3KCn elHUHH) B COOTBeTCTBHI C

nOCT3HOBJlel-illeM COBeTa Hap0lHbIX Ko~mccapoB PCcentCP 1924 r

B 3KCrreDHUlfOlll-fbIX 06CJlelOBaI1l15lx KpecTbsulclwro n aCeJleHI51 Boshy

1orOllClltof Ii TaMuoBcKOimiddotj ry6epHH ~i (Bonpocbl JJeMorpaq)J[u H coshy

nHaJlbHOH rllnteHbl) B HCC1CIIOUaHlI5IX n o Bonpoca~t CS5l31 reHepashy

Til BHOji cjgtYHlltUIlH Ii DeTCKOii CMepTHOCTH C TPYlOM MaTepll ([iCC leshy

]lOBaIHlH npOMlgtIlUJleHHbLX pa604fIX B BOCCTa[[OBlITelbHO~1 nepnolC bull

I 13 p eJYJlbTaTe pa360p3 B 43CTHOCTII MaTe~larH4ecKoro allaJlll3a npcIJ1rgtmiddot ll(HlIoro McrOlla B B naeocKHil n A n 5l XOIITOB (TpYALI llCMorpapIl-ICCKOr 11

IHICTIITYT3 AK311eMIUI lIaYI CCCP _ I) npIIWJlH K c1elYIOLUeMY BblBOny laquoAHa~trleCTHlCCKHft MeTOll 1l3CT B PYKH HCCJJelORaTeJll lIaY4Hoe 0pYAlle Ana Gonce 1IJ111 Mcnee TOl l10ro II yr~y(j1el1uoro 113Y4(IIUl npOllCCCOB BocnpOIl3BOACT

llltl IWCeJleHllfiraquo laquoUeJiblii pnLl BonpOCOIl npll 113Y4CIIHH KOTOPblX CT3THCTflQecKlljl ~laTeplfa

GLiBaeT cpaBHHTeJlblD ne3l1alllfCJlbllblM no 1IICJlY ellliTlHU tra6mOACHIUI nOJY4aeT nrl11 nOMOLUI1 anaMHeCTII 4CCKOrf) MCTOAa B0310KnOcn paCWllpelllll II yrJJyGJl eH IHI

n pOrpa1MbI ~3ytjeIlHn ce CKa3aHlloc n OIBOJlRCT CI11Tan ITO aHalIeCT1I4eCKflil (lI1It MOiKCT UblTI

n p8BflJJIHee GllorpapIllccRlfil ) MCTOll MOlKeT n airTl lOBOJlbHO WltpOKoe npIPd ( IlCHlle npn CT3THCTHJeCKO1 lI1151101enUU n 04ellh WOfHX OTpaCJIlX 3HaHlia OcnoBlloc 311alellHl MeTOlla 3aK11OlafTCll B CIIOCOGIIOCTIf 1l3Tb 3n3RlIC npowJloro II nOll 3TOM B ltPOp Me Tpe6yeMo H COBpeMClr11b1M lICCJlCnOBaIlUCM ho l1l31ennE MCTOD He TepSleT lJeCMOrpll Ha B03MOKIltIC TeOpeTII4eCKIle norpCWHOCTII 1I B03

MOiKHYIO neltpCKTHDHOCTb co(iHpaClOr o 13TepUaJl3raquo ltHcnOCTaTJl1 npHCYLUHe 8HaMHCCTIIleCKOIY MeTOllY OT48CTlI CBllJ3UbJ C OCl

tiellHocTblO MeTOJl3 OT13C-rrl ll9J1S110TCl 06LUHM H lVlll BCllKoro CTanlCTlI4eClwrl na(iJlIOllellllll 130 BCllKOM cny l ae HeilOCT3TKH ~eTnaa tie TaK cyweCTICllllbl ITOliLl

Kll Jlefiarb B03MOlKHOCTJ ero np lI IeneHUSIraquo n pUMeplfO TllKaSl KC OU(l1Ka 3l13MHCCTf14ecKoro ~teTOJla aalla A 5l BOHP

CKHM II n fl llIYWep HllblM B Kypce ltlleMo r p8(jHI4eCaSl CT8TIICTIIKaraquo Bonpoc 0 MareM3rlll(CKoil nOCTOBepHOCTlr aa 1111 bI X nOJlY4aeMblX HS OClIOBJshy

mlH 81l3MIICCTII4eCKorn ~leTOD3 CneUHaJlbllO IICCJle)lOBan Ta KiKe B A DblCTpnshynorf B ec Jll1CCepT8l1)10fJ lIOif pa60TC llOCTOBepllOCTb DaHllblX nOJly[aeMbiX allaM-

1-I(CTHICCKIIM eTOllOMraquo

151

PHJl HCCJle)JOBaHHH Jle~IOrpacentIileCKIlX npOueCCOB 6blJl npOBCJleU B CS5I31I C COUlIaJlIlCTITLIeCKOH peKOUCTPYKlJlieii rOpOJla Ii JlepCBfIlI IlHJlYCTpHaJHf3aUHeH Ii KOJlJlelTlfBH3auueJl CTpaHbr B tJacnrocnr

H3YQeHHe JlHHalHKH leTCKOll CMepTIlOCTH B nOCeJ1KaX MOCKBbI H B KOJlX03aX pHJla o6fJaCTei-i

Oco6oro BHILMaillI5I 3 a CJlY)KHBaIQT 06WnpHhle 06CJJeJlOBaH~IH ceshyl eft pa60LIHX ClIY)KallJl1X H IlHIl(CHep llO-TeXH1QeCKHx pa60THliKOB (JlO 10 000 onpoweHliblx MaTepeii) npOBeleHHbl e lJCY CCCP n pll 6Io)J)KeTHbI X o6CJlellOBaHJIHX B 1934 r Pe3YJlbT aTbi 3THX HCCJleDOshyBaHliH orry6JlliKOBaHbi B J957 r a KaJle1HKOM C r CTPYMHJlHlIbIM

AHalH1eCTHIeCKUH MeTO] C ycrrexoM npH~leHHJlC5I TaK1Ke np H 113Yl leIlTlII CltlHllTa p HblX 110CJlenCI BH~i BOllHbI (KpbIM) npH H3ytlemm nereCeJleHIHI B YCJlOBIHIX KpaHHero Cesepa (HHCTlHYT rI1rI1eHbI AMI-l CCCP) nJl5I nonY4eHHH oQIlJei-i xapaKTep HCTHKH JlellOrpashycPlIlfeCIUlX npoueccoB a TalOKe C ueJlblO KOImiddottTPOJlH nOJlIIOTbI H DOshycToBepHocTII nallllblX 0CPUUl-IaJlbHOH CTaTnCTHKH 3aKaBKa3b5I (3KCshynCDHUlIOIJllOe 06CJlellOnallfie M HcTIlTYTa opramnauHH 311paBooxpa shyHe~Jli51 H HCnOpmr vlelHUHHbI HM H A CeMail1Ko)

B pa3pa6oTKe allaMHECTH-leCKOrO MeTO[la H B npOBeJleH1l 1I 3KCshynellHUHOHHbtX 11 HllblX oGcneJ]oBaHHii npHHlIMano yqacTHe 3HatJHshyreJlbHOe tfHCJlO n a Yllnbl X pa6oTHHKOB CCCP

YKA3ATEJlb JIMTEPATYPbl

OIHOBHble HCTOlIHlKH no MeTonOJlOrltleCKIlM BonpocaM)

I n e K C U c CT3Tbn lTo TeopHH CT3TIICTltKIt lIaCeJIellllSl l TeopnIl npaBCTshyBCllltOI CT3THCHIKII 1 fp3qJlIlecKII~1 MeTOA HCCJleAOB3UHSl CMepT1l0Cni II noshyIHlllOK BblmlpaHIISl B nepeaOAeuro nOA peA Ll y rrpOBa Cn6 1906

2 13 a T K II C r A Ol[epKII 110 CTaTHCTIIIeCKOIi MeToaOJtOrllll I K Bonpocy MeTOLlOJlOrtlll IICH1c~eRIHI Cpe)lHerO B03pac-ra 11 MeTOLl H30Xpml Ill H3YleHue 11 10110[lIlTOCTII IV y13Y l lelHle CMCPTHOCTII V feOMeTplll[eCl(He r pacjJuKIl naceshyJI(IIUS VI AnaMHCCTIIIeC)HH leTO B AeMorpaClIlH laquoCOUB3J1bH3n rHrllella~ N 19 1928 ~2 2-3 12-13 N94 (14) 1928

3 13 a T Ilt II C r A K MeTonOJlOnlH 1t3YIJC8Hff BJHHIIIHl lIpocjJCCCl1l 113 nposhyIf~ BonHTe1bHylO cjJYHKlJUlO )KemllIIHbl laquofmUeHa 6C3onaCHoCTb It naTOnOrHH rpyn3 N2 2 M 1930

4 13 0 1I p C K 11 if A 51 It ill Ywe p H B n n Lle~lOrpacjJlJIleCKall CT3T11shyCTHKa M 1955

5 B bt C T P 0 B a B A LlocToeepHoCTb AamrblX nOJlylae~tblx alla~HleCTil-4(CKllM MeTonOM ABTopccjJepaT J1llccepTaUHH M 1954

6 Be H II 6 e p r B MeronIlKa H TeIIIlKa CT3TliCTHKU B nplIJlogtKellllH couliallbllOi 6lonortll1 nepeBoll nOll pCLl A B MOJIhKOB3 M 1928

7 My x 3 M C1 L Sl pO B ltIgt f K Bonpocy 06 113Y l lCIIlIIl BOCnpOl-l3BO1CtBa IIOKOMIlHJI K33alfcK~rit Mell iKypH3n 11 6 1931

8 My x a M e Jl blip 0 B (Igt r K Bonpocy 06 1I3YIJClIliH nepCgtF111J3eMOCTif B3poclloro TaTapCKoro 113CCJlelillfl Ka3 ~ICl livpH3n Ka3aH 1930

9 My x a 1 ell blip 0 B ltI) r OnblT 1l3Yle1l1lSl nJlOJlOllHTOlTIi gtKCtlWHIlbtshyTaTapKH 1I nepe)KUBaeMOCTll ee peOCHI3 K33 Men )KypHal Ka3a1lEo 1930

10 n a C B C K If ii B B II 51 x 0 H T O B A n a npliMelleHlfli aHaMlICCTlllemiddot CKoro MtTOla B 1eMOrp3cjJIlIl laquoT pYllLJ LleorpacjJllleCKOro l1UCflITYTa AKaae1I111 HayK CCCPraquo T I 1933

I I c 11 II K e B H LJ r n I fclICJleHlle cpeililcro B03paCT1J IIClcrynneHliH 1l[l1l3shyHllKa 110 Kllel11ltllllblM llerllOJl1M rnrn lna 11 3nl11C~1ItworH5Iraquo 1Ii III 1927

152

12 C II H Ii e B 11 q r n BOJloroncKaSl KpCcTb5lHKa u ee peIJelloK M 1929 13 Til MME C OmgtT 13YleIlHSI eCteCTBeliBOro llB10KeBIUI uacelleHIHI B

KI IUI 1 3Ka x T awKellT 1933 14 T If M I E C OnbtT c31l1ITapBo-cT3TlICTIIQCCKOrO UCClcuon3Hllll DnollO-

IITOCTIl TawlCclTT 1936 15 c 0 n T bI C C K I Ii E 11 K nonpocy 0 rtpl1Meliellll1t aHaMHeCTllltteCKoro

~I oaa [l c3I1HTapHo-cTaTlICTIlleCKHX HCCJlenOBalllHIX cr~lIueL1a II caHHTapHlI~ N 3 1949

16 C T P Y M H IT H II C r np06J1eMloi 3KOHOMIIKII TpyJJa [JI V n p06J1(Ma

pll K1l3eMOCTlI B pa60Qerf ceMbe M 1957 17 ill 0 pO ( 0 BaA A MCToLlHKa 1I3)1eHHSI nJlO)JOBlITOCTll qenOBeKa_

T alllKeHT 1935 18 A n s c I L An lhe rate of morlality of early period of life and t he other

~l~li s li cs of families L 1879 19 K nap p L D ie sterblichkeit in Sachsen leipzig 1869 20 K u C z i ns k y R The balance of barlhs an d deaths N J 1928 21 Wei 0 b erg W Die Kinder cler Tuberkulosen LeIpzig 1913

----

Ta6nllL35

PacnmiddotpellenCHHe pOlKJeHHH no BoapacTy amplaTep B MOMeHT POllOB

(o6c~eJoDaIlHe 1955 r )

B()j (laCT gtta lmiddotcpgt1 B MOM ellT pltJI101

B03p3CT ~nTcpll I o ~o ellT 06celloo31I11A

18 I 19 I 20 I 21 I 22 23 I 24 I 8 T JI

I 18 1955 19 1I 20 -2-1 shy21 1 3 1 shy22 I 1 1

4 -6-23 2 3 1 1 2 -2-~24 3

1 225 2 2 5 7

26 1 I 2 4 5 27 2 3 1 2 l 2

2R 1945 1 2 4 3 2 4 3

29 lt 3 2 I 2 41+130 L 5 1 3 1

- 7- 331 4 2 3 4 -2-132 2 3 5 2 5

6 -31 433 3 4 6 -3-34 2 3 5 5 4

35 3 4 7 3 4 7 36 2 3 6 l ) 5 37 2 j I 4 7 a If

33 1935 3 4 2 8 5 4

39 5 4 3 4 4 7I 6 3 8 (jJO -1- 5

--3shy41 2 2 1 5 7 3 3 42 4 6 - 3- 5 4 3

3 -2-143 2 1 4 3 11

44 3 2 () 4middot 6 - 2- 5 - 8shy45 3 l 7 4 4

46 5 4 3 3 5 6

47 5 5 1 3 4 48 2 7 2 5 ~ l

49 J 6 R C 5 l (j50 II CTapwe fi 4 8 9 7 9

Bcero pOlKneHHii 37 77 118 lIt 111 104 IIIl

B TOM IBcne no uepliOnaM

1945-1954 rr 7 18 23 21 26 32 34 1935--194+ rr 12 32 4J 46 47 42 50

110 1935 r 18 2fi 52 44 37 29 32

142

llJJ5I laCToro neplloll3 AO 1941 r (lpacpa 3) IHCJlO HaGmolleH HblX (np0gtKHTblX) JleT H s03pacTe 15 JleT 04eSHllHO paBHO tlllCJlY Bcex 2802 o6cJlellOSaHHblx )KeHtUMH 3a BbIeTOM 12middot~6 IKelJtUI-Hl He llOCnrrWHX K IWHlIY 3Toro lJaCTllOrO nepH01Ia 15 JleT T e 1556

BeJllFIIIHbl llMI B03pacroB 16 17 18 H T Jl nOJlY4eHbI nYTeM rrOCJleJlOBaTeJlbHOrO Bbl4HTaHHSI raquoltElltUHH HaXOllHBlllHXCSI K KOHUY nepHOJla B npeJlblJlYlUeH B03pacTHo~i rpynne (TaK )lJHI 16 JleT

1406 = 1556-150 DJHI 17 J1er 1359 = 1406-47 H T Jl) )lrUI 43CTIOro IlcpHoDa 1941-l945 fT (rpacenta 5) LIlII~10 HCl6

JlIOJleUllbIX (np0gtKWrbrx) JleT B B03pacTe 15 fleT OleSHJllO paBHo qHCJlY gtKeHlliHH sCTynJlBwHx B 3TOT nepHOa IO J]OCTIIgtKeIHlH ]5 neT (l2-l6) 3a BbllleTOM emIHIH He Il0CHlrWHX 3Toro B03paCTa JlO 1946 r (75 J ) MCKOMoe 1HCJ10 paBHO pa3fIOCTIl nllX lIHCeJl T e

1246-751 = 495 T 6 J1 11 L a 5a

HCIHCJlelllle npOJl(HTblX noll tlaonIOJleHlleM 1eT Anll Reeti rpynobl lIIeHutHH no neptO)laM

ItUI10 nposhyIt1J1hlyen 1I 0U

1Ifno lUCO lI uOICA shyIu( lUPfnpClICshy IUlllpCt shyPocnPClC middot npo~nn npOlKTbIX tHle Jle1JlIUUC IlOJlltaUlIOmiddot 11UHc1 CIUlCn[JoaIIThl~ 1I0JllliI61t10 Uil eeL)fCUHUIII

)KCUUUIll nolellHCMOJ 113611lt- ~ltellll(11I1D03p~C1 ACHlH leT nCpH OJl AO ACIlIlt4 neT no oOIn~T) 1t l 33

no BOIshy lIotflurTY Jtl 19~6 IOMCIITU JlO I ~middotI I r

rlOt middot middotY 1t3 lit 1J51i r1J11110 lhu r 1955 rr oIiCl1cIIlt)shy1911 r (Itw rr OnltlUI (1J5I r)

I 7 86~ 3 41

751 751

) 2-16 -no 15 31 2A02) 16 495155615 150 aq 27719164middot1998)6 140047

976 2733 18

75135y 1M aVti17 72 1Jd l79 ~65839241) f512S7

Y4671 25-1038 353) 211HI 42 135 II T ~ 1 T a

21 150 II T lI20 II T n

~3middot17I 7n72 84

22 46

24 23

80-42 )96tl T 1125 98

27 21)

7R 85

29 28

38 30 150 31 47 32 72 33 46 34 42

11 T bull u II T Jl t t

Bcero Q

BemfllHHbl llJlH B03paC10B 16 17 18 1I T lI nOJIytleHbl CJleJlYshyIOlUliM 06pa30M npH6aRJleHbl 1Ilcna )f(eflLLIH1J HaXOllHBWHXC5I K HaLIaJlY nepnoJJa B npeAblllytUej B03paCTHoii npynne (rpacpa 2) 11

143

- -- ---

PaCnpelleJlelllle raquolteI-lllJHII no B03pacry B lOlgtleUT 06C~leLlOBai1l1H II B03paCTY BCT)nJ1eHH5I B 6paK I1Jlli npeKparneHHH 6paKa KdK yKashy3aHO Bhlwe LlaeT B03MOiKHOCTb pacnp el1e1HTb HX no xpOHOnOrHleshyClmM nepHonaM (LlHarOHaJ1blIbiM JTHHHflM I130Xp0l(nl) llJUr KaiK shy

loro B03paCTa nOrOlHO nOJlcqHThlBaeTen lHCJlO COCTOHBilHiX Ii 6pashyKe K KOIIUY nepHOLla (FlnlI ITO TO Me n epeWeJlWHX B COCTOHHHe 6paKa B cleJlYIOLUHii nepHOJl) TaK ~IHCJlO 23-JleTHHX COCTOHBillllX K 6paKe B 1945 r bull nOJTYllaeTC5J no ropH30HfaJlH B03paCTa 33 r Ol la ( Ha MOMeHT 06CJleIlOBaHHfI) rrYTeM CyMIgtIYI[l oaaHIUI BCryf1RBWRX B 6paK no 1945 r H BbllIITaHHH CJIYllaes np eIltpaLUCHH5I 6paKa

18 = 2+ 4 I 5 5 middotH~- 1

LfHCJ1a npoMHTblX leT B OpatJHOM COCTOHHIlI1 nJlSl OT)lenbHbI X

XpOH0J10rH4eCKHx nepHOJlOB (CM Ta6n 6a) orrpeJlenHIOTC5I cneJly shyIO[UHM 06pa30M rroroaI1O I1MI Karaquoltnoro B03pacTa nOCJlenOBaTeJ1bshy110 CYMMIlPYIOTC5I nepeweLltIllle B COCT05HlIe 6pallta T13 npeiJbICyweshyro nepHOla ( r pacpa 2) H BCTymwwHe B GpaK B llaHHOM B03pacTe If

B naHHOM nepnOl1e (rpacpa 3) Ii nOCJ1eJlOBaTeJlbIlO BblllHTalOTCH Dce npeKpanlBWlle 6paK (rpacpa 4) H nepeXOJl5IllJHe B COCTOfllHIC 6paKa B cJ1enYIOwuH n epHOlt (rpacpa 5) Tallt 4liCIJO np0gtKHTbIX OpalHblX JleT B B03pacre 19 J1eT I1J1H liIepHona 1945-1954 rr paBlfo

84= 38+2+ 48- 1- 3

JlSI 22 TIeT

160 = 154 + 6+18- 3-15 H T i

T a 6 Jl II [I a 6a

HCIIICJleIlHe 6paIHoro nepHOJla (lHCna npOlKHTblX neT) J1nJl xpOHOnOrlfeCKOrO nepHOJla

QI(10 iKe lllIllIH 1I lIen n n PO)lt)11LfHeno +C IIlL( HlI lJucno 011 11 11111TO c H t B 6PU 4 110 M BCTynHulIlI II li1l 1H

Aalllloro BlnpaCT(I Jl3 UH OI O UO IpH CTa B n~plloJll COllOSl HlIII 8 LaJt~ p CKpJ shytOCTOSlUIllH 8 C()CTCl 5I BllJItX 9BIIJ p nCT (IWi 1111 r ) T il BllHt X 110 B03P KTC

(ipnKc lin 11118110 liPKC K KOIII Iu n tJIIIIUU 6pnllt H ncpllo middot ne po)1 (1945 r ) lIe l a (K l middot i~ 1 ) (1~IS- 1 9fimiddot1 r r)BO p UCl C

-Ii I 51 2 middot1

_18 -38 - 3 19 12 ~tl 3 84

() 20 1)11 1J9 f)21 2 15425 6

22 18 3 156 160 23 6 17IS 16 161 2middot1 l 2012 10 139

U T jI

1-[

BbiGTeHbl HaXOlI1BWneCn B Toil Ie B03paCTIlOH rpynlle Ha KOHel( 11epHOJla (rpacenta 4)

TaK 449 = 495+ 150- 196 398 = 449 + 47- 98 11 T JI

llJU qaCTHOro nepJoIona 1946-1955 rr (rpacpa 7) BeJllollfHHbl QJTH B03pacToB 16 17 18 If T 11 1l0JT)IeHbl anaJlOrHlIHO naUHblM ilJH nepnola 194 L- [945 rr

TaK 916=751 + 196- 31 976 = 916+98- 38 R T 11 Cnoc06 nOJl)Ie lfH5I Ilall ll bl X )lJl51 Bcero nepHona B ueJlOM (lpashy

ltJa 8) IlOfICneH Bhlwe npHBeLleM erne OllHlI npllMcp fI pllMeHeHIIH MeTOl1a H30XpOll I1JHl

Bb[~IHCJleHHH no n epHOl1aM IIPOlHTbIX 6pa rlIfblx JTeT PaClteT nposhyH3BOLlHTCH no AallRblJI1 pacnpel1eJTeHH5 IeHlLUB no B03paCTY B MOshyMeHT o6CJTelOBaHHH (1956 r) H no B03pacTY scrynrleHHH B 6paK 1-1 ero npel(parneHHH (Ta61J 6)

T a 6 Jl II II a 6

PacnpeAeneHHe 06cneJ(onaHI1b1x no B03pacTY nCTynneHHII H OpeKpalleJlHSI 6paxa

B(J3pa CT B MOICIiT oc rynnclIHR A (ipallt MII npC Kp3utCIIIIR Opa lw

Bf) 3K3CT 91()1 CllT I ltI r~CA()fJIJIfIiSl II I I I I IIS 19 ~n n 22 21 2middot1 II T JI

18 1955 19 J I shy-ashy20 1 t

VI

21 J 2 I 2 22 6 -4 1 5 TIl I 23 5 5 4 3 -=-1

324 6 7 2 2 1 21 I---= 25 4 4 5 32 )

26 5 7 7 j 2 2 2 17 4 ti 7 G 2 32 28 1945 2 j 2 1 29 1 ) 5 1 2(2 30 2 3 3 1 1 1 2 12 31 21 --~ I I 1 2 1 2

- 1-132 2 3 2 1 12 33 2 -1 5 5 1 ---3-1_1 34 3 4 -tl I 2 11) 1_1_

It T 11

fj 194r)-I)) ( 11

tl CTYIIIIIO B 6paK 38 IS middot19 21 J8 Hi ll

flPCK P iITIf 1(l 6pt K 2 1 Ii

1 Iml u ihTYI11UJlUIi X H 0lllli ylhOl~oI h IIHmiddotHrrc1c IUUI ilptM11IHIIIII UnC1C

J~J

C OC TORBWHC II 6pIIc

110 linI1915 r

2 5 6 G

18 12

[( T I

19Sr

3 6 6

15 17 20 16 29 21 I 15 1 1 11 8

19 13

f[ 1 L

rlpi - B atltmiddot

4 HccneAoBaHHe CBH3K AeMorpa$HQeCKHX npo~eccoB C APyrHMH SlBneHHSlMH

nepeA HccneuOBaTene 1acTO BCTae-r 3alla4a xapaKTepnCTHKI

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n p8BflJJIHee GllorpapIllccRlfil ) MCTOll MOlKeT n airTl lOBOJlbHO WltpOKoe npIPd ( IlCHlle npn CT3THCTHJeCKO1 lI1151101enUU n 04ellh WOfHX OTpaCJIlX 3HaHlia OcnoBlloc 311alellHl MeTOlla 3aK11OlafTCll B CIIOCOGIIOCTIf 1l3Tb 3n3RlIC npowJloro II nOll 3TOM B ltPOp Me Tpe6yeMo H COBpeMClr11b1M lICCJlCnOBaIlUCM ho l1l31ennE MCTOD He TepSleT lJeCMOrpll Ha B03MOKIltIC TeOpeTII4eCKIle norpCWHOCTII 1I B03

MOiKHYIO neltpCKTHDHOCTb co(iHpaClOr o 13TepUaJl3raquo ltHcnOCTaTJl1 npHCYLUHe 8HaMHCCTIIleCKOIY MeTOllY OT48CTlI CBllJ3UbJ C OCl

tiellHocTblO MeTOJl3 OT13C-rrl ll9J1S110TCl 06LUHM H lVlll BCllKoro CTanlCTlI4eClwrl na(iJlIOllellllll 130 BCllKOM cny l ae HeilOCT3TKH ~eTnaa tie TaK cyweCTICllllbl ITOliLl

Kll Jlefiarb B03MOlKHOCTJ ero np lI IeneHUSIraquo n pUMeplfO TllKaSl KC OU(l1Ka 3l13MHCCTf14ecKoro ~teTOJla aalla A 5l BOHP

CKHM II n fl llIYWep HllblM B Kypce ltlleMo r p8(jHI4eCaSl CT8TIICTIIKaraquo Bonpoc 0 MareM3rlll(CKoil nOCTOBepHOCTlr aa 1111 bI X nOJlY4aeMblX HS OClIOBJshy

mlH 81l3MIICCTII4eCKorn ~leTOD3 CneUHaJlbllO IICCJle)lOBan Ta KiKe B A DblCTpnshynorf B ec Jll1CCepT8l1)10fJ lIOif pa60TC llOCTOBepllOCTb DaHllblX nOJly[aeMbiX allaM-

1-I(CTHICCKIIM eTOllOMraquo

151

PHJl HCCJle)JOBaHHH Jle~IOrpacentIileCKIlX npOueCCOB 6blJl npOBCJleU B CS5I31I C COUlIaJlIlCTITLIeCKOH peKOUCTPYKlJlieii rOpOJla Ii JlepCBfIlI IlHJlYCTpHaJHf3aUHeH Ii KOJlJlelTlfBH3auueJl CTpaHbr B tJacnrocnr

H3YQeHHe JlHHalHKH leTCKOll CMepTIlOCTH B nOCeJ1KaX MOCKBbI H B KOJlX03aX pHJla o6fJaCTei-i

Oco6oro BHILMaillI5I 3 a CJlY)KHBaIQT 06WnpHhle 06CJJeJlOBaH~IH ceshyl eft pa60LIHX ClIY)KallJl1X H IlHIl(CHep llO-TeXH1QeCKHx pa60THliKOB (JlO 10 000 onpoweHliblx MaTepeii) npOBeleHHbl e lJCY CCCP n pll 6Io)J)KeTHbI X o6CJlellOBaHJIHX B 1934 r Pe3YJlbT aTbi 3THX HCCJleDOshyBaHliH orry6JlliKOBaHbi B J957 r a KaJle1HKOM C r CTPYMHJlHlIbIM

AHalH1eCTHIeCKUH MeTO] C ycrrexoM npH~leHHJlC5I TaK1Ke np H 113Yl leIlTlII CltlHllTa p HblX 110CJlenCI BH~i BOllHbI (KpbIM) npH H3ytlemm nereCeJleHIHI B YCJlOBIHIX KpaHHero Cesepa (HHCTlHYT rI1rI1eHbI AMI-l CCCP) nJl5I nonY4eHHH oQIlJei-i xapaKTep HCTHKH JlellOrpashycPlIlfeCIUlX npoueccoB a TalOKe C ueJlblO KOImiddottTPOJlH nOJlIIOTbI H DOshycToBepHocTII nallllblX 0CPUUl-IaJlbHOH CTaTnCTHKH 3aKaBKa3b5I (3KCshynCDHUlIOIJllOe 06CJlellOnallfie M HcTIlTYTa opramnauHH 311paBooxpa shyHe~Jli51 H HCnOpmr vlelHUHHbI HM H A CeMail1Ko)

B pa3pa6oTKe allaMHECTH-leCKOrO MeTO[la H B npOBeJleH1l 1I 3KCshynellHUHOHHbtX 11 HllblX oGcneJ]oBaHHii npHHlIMano yqacTHe 3HatJHshyreJlbHOe tfHCJlO n a Yllnbl X pa6oTHHKOB CCCP

YKA3ATEJlb JIMTEPATYPbl

OIHOBHble HCTOlIHlKH no MeTonOJlOrltleCKIlM BonpocaM)

I n e K C U c CT3Tbn lTo TeopHH CT3TIICTltKIt lIaCeJIellllSl l TeopnIl npaBCTshyBCllltOI CT3THCHIKII 1 fp3qJlIlecKII~1 MeTOA HCCJleAOB3UHSl CMepT1l0Cni II noshyIHlllOK BblmlpaHIISl B nepeaOAeuro nOA peA Ll y rrpOBa Cn6 1906

2 13 a T K II C r A Ol[epKII 110 CTaTHCTIIIeCKOIi MeToaOJtOrllll I K Bonpocy MeTOLlOJlOrtlll IICH1c~eRIHI Cpe)lHerO B03pac-ra 11 MeTOLl H30Xpml Ill H3YleHue 11 10110[lIlTOCTII IV y13Y l lelHle CMCPTHOCTII V feOMeTplll[eCl(He r pacjJuKIl naceshyJI(IIUS VI AnaMHCCTIIIeC)HH leTO B AeMorpaClIlH laquoCOUB3J1bH3n rHrllella~ N 19 1928 ~2 2-3 12-13 N94 (14) 1928

3 13 a T Ilt II C r A K MeTonOJlOnlH 1t3YIJC8Hff BJHHIIIHl lIpocjJCCCl1l 113 nposhyIf~ BonHTe1bHylO cjJYHKlJUlO )KemllIIHbl laquofmUeHa 6C3onaCHoCTb It naTOnOrHH rpyn3 N2 2 M 1930

4 13 0 1I p C K 11 if A 51 It ill Ywe p H B n n Lle~lOrpacjJlJIleCKall CT3T11shyCTHKa M 1955

5 B bt C T P 0 B a B A LlocToeepHoCTb AamrblX nOJlylae~tblx alla~HleCTil-4(CKllM MeTonOM ABTopccjJepaT J1llccepTaUHH M 1954

6 Be H II 6 e p r B MeronIlKa H TeIIIlKa CT3TliCTHKU B nplIJlogtKellllH couliallbllOi 6lonortll1 nepeBoll nOll pCLl A B MOJIhKOB3 M 1928

7 My x 3 M C1 L Sl pO B ltIgt f K Bonpocy 06 113Y l lCIIlIIl BOCnpOl-l3BO1CtBa IIOKOMIlHJI K33alfcK~rit Mell iKypH3n 11 6 1931

8 My x a M e Jl blip 0 B (Igt r K Bonpocy 06 1I3YIJClIliH nepCgtF111J3eMOCTif B3poclloro TaTapCKoro 113CCJlelillfl Ka3 ~ICl livpH3n Ka3aH 1930

9 My x a 1 ell blip 0 B ltI) r OnblT 1l3Yle1l1lSl nJlOJlOllHTOlTIi gtKCtlWHIlbtshyTaTapKH 1I nepe)KUBaeMOCTll ee peOCHI3 K33 Men )KypHal Ka3a1lEo 1930

10 n a C B C K If ii B B II 51 x 0 H T O B A n a npliMelleHlfli aHaMlICCTlllemiddot CKoro MtTOla B 1eMOrp3cjJIlIl laquoT pYllLJ LleorpacjJllleCKOro l1UCflITYTa AKaae1I111 HayK CCCPraquo T I 1933

I I c 11 II K e B H LJ r n I fclICJleHlle cpeililcro B03paCT1J IIClcrynneHliH 1l[l1l3shyHllKa 110 Kllel11ltllllblM llerllOJl1M rnrn lna 11 3nl11C~1ItworH5Iraquo 1Ii III 1927

152

12 C II H Ii e B 11 q r n BOJloroncKaSl KpCcTb5lHKa u ee peIJelloK M 1929 13 Til MME C OmgtT 13YleIlHSI eCteCTBeliBOro llB10KeBIUI uacelleHIHI B

KI IUI 1 3Ka x T awKellT 1933 14 T If M I E C OnbtT c31l1ITapBo-cT3TlICTIIQCCKOrO UCClcuon3Hllll DnollO-

IITOCTIl TawlCclTT 1936 15 c 0 n T bI C C K I Ii E 11 K nonpocy 0 rtpl1Meliellll1t aHaMHeCTllltteCKoro

~I oaa [l c3I1HTapHo-cTaTlICTIlleCKHX HCCJlenOBalllHIX cr~lIueL1a II caHHTapHlI~ N 3 1949

16 C T P Y M H IT H II C r np06J1eMloi 3KOHOMIIKII TpyJJa [JI V n p06J1(Ma

pll K1l3eMOCTlI B pa60Qerf ceMbe M 1957 17 ill 0 pO ( 0 BaA A MCToLlHKa 1I3)1eHHSI nJlO)JOBlITOCTll qenOBeKa_

T alllKeHT 1935 18 A n s c I L An lhe rate of morlality of early period of life and t he other

~l~li s li cs of families L 1879 19 K nap p L D ie sterblichkeit in Sachsen leipzig 1869 20 K u C z i ns k y R The balance of barlhs an d deaths N J 1928 21 Wei 0 b erg W Die Kinder cler Tuberkulosen LeIpzig 1913

- -- ---

PaCnpelleJlelllle raquolteI-lllJHII no B03pacry B lOlgtleUT 06C~leLlOBai1l1H II B03paCTY BCT)nJ1eHH5I B 6paK I1Jlli npeKparneHHH 6paKa KdK yKashy3aHO Bhlwe LlaeT B03MOiKHOCTb pacnp el1e1HTb HX no xpOHOnOrHleshyClmM nepHonaM (LlHarOHaJ1blIbiM JTHHHflM I130Xp0l(nl) llJUr KaiK shy

loro B03paCTa nOrOlHO nOJlcqHThlBaeTen lHCJlO COCTOHBilHiX Ii 6pashyKe K KOIIUY nepHOLla (FlnlI ITO TO Me n epeWeJlWHX B COCTOHHHe 6paKa B cleJlYIOLUHii nepHOJl) TaK ~IHCJlO 23-JleTHHX COCTOHBillllX K 6paKe B 1945 r bull nOJTYllaeTC5J no ropH30HfaJlH B03paCTa 33 r Ol la ( Ha MOMeHT 06CJleIlOBaHHfI) rrYTeM CyMIgtIYI[l oaaHIUI BCryf1RBWRX B 6paK no 1945 r H BbllIITaHHH CJIYllaes np eIltpaLUCHH5I 6paKa

18 = 2+ 4 I 5 5 middotH~- 1

LfHCJ1a npoMHTblX leT B OpatJHOM COCTOHHIlI1 nJlSl OT)lenbHbI X

XpOH0J10rH4eCKHx nepHOJlOB (CM Ta6n 6a) orrpeJlenHIOTC5I cneJly shyIO[UHM 06pa30M rroroaI1O I1MI Karaquoltnoro B03pacTa nOCJlenOBaTeJ1bshy110 CYMMIlPYIOTC5I nepeweLltIllle B COCT05HlIe 6pallta T13 npeiJbICyweshyro nepHOla ( r pacpa 2) H BCTymwwHe B GpaK B llaHHOM B03pacTe If

B naHHOM nepnOl1e (rpacpa 3) Ii nOCJ1eJlOBaTeJlbIlO BblllHTalOTCH Dce npeKpanlBWlle 6paK (rpacpa 4) H nepeXOJl5IllJHe B COCTOfllHIC 6paKa B cJ1enYIOwuH n epHOlt (rpacpa 5) Tallt 4liCIJO np0gtKHTbIX OpalHblX JleT B B03pacre 19 J1eT I1J1H liIepHona 1945-1954 rr paBlfo

84= 38+2+ 48- 1- 3

JlSI 22 TIeT

160 = 154 + 6+18- 3-15 H T i

T a 6 Jl II [I a 6a

HCIIICJleIlHe 6paIHoro nepHOJla (lHCna npOlKHTblX neT) J1nJl xpOHOnOrlfeCKOrO nepHOJla

QI(10 iKe lllIllIH 1I lIen n n PO)lt)11LfHeno +C IIlL( HlI lJucno 011 11 11111TO c H t B 6PU 4 110 M BCTynHulIlI II li1l 1H

Aalllloro BlnpaCT(I Jl3 UH OI O UO IpH CTa B n~plloJll COllOSl HlIII 8 LaJt~ p CKpJ shytOCTOSlUIllH 8 C()CTCl 5I BllJItX 9BIIJ p nCT (IWi 1111 r ) T il BllHt X 110 B03P KTC

(ipnKc lin 11118110 liPKC K KOIII Iu n tJIIIIUU 6pnllt H ncpllo middot ne po)1 (1945 r ) lIe l a (K l middot i~ 1 ) (1~IS- 1 9fimiddot1 r r)BO p UCl C

-Ii I 51 2 middot1

_18 -38 - 3 19 12 ~tl 3 84

() 20 1)11 1J9 f)21 2 15425 6

22 18 3 156 160 23 6 17IS 16 161 2middot1 l 2012 10 139

U T jI

1-[

BbiGTeHbl HaXOlI1BWneCn B Toil Ie B03paCTIlOH rpynlle Ha KOHel( 11epHOJla (rpacenta 4)

TaK 449 = 495+ 150- 196 398 = 449 + 47- 98 11 T JI

llJU qaCTHOro nepJoIona 1946-1955 rr (rpacpa 7) BeJllollfHHbl QJTH B03pacToB 16 17 18 If T 11 1l0JT)IeHbl anaJlOrHlIHO naUHblM ilJH nepnola 194 L- [945 rr

TaK 916=751 + 196- 31 976 = 916+98- 38 R T 11 Cnoc06 nOJl)Ie lfH5I Ilall ll bl X )lJl51 Bcero nepHona B ueJlOM (lpashy

ltJa 8) IlOfICneH Bhlwe npHBeLleM erne OllHlI npllMcp fI pllMeHeHIIH MeTOl1a H30XpOll I1JHl

Bb[~IHCJleHHH no n epHOl1aM IIPOlHTbIX 6pa rlIfblx JTeT PaClteT nposhyH3BOLlHTCH no AallRblJI1 pacnpel1eJTeHH5 IeHlLUB no B03paCTY B MOshyMeHT o6CJTelOBaHHH (1956 r) H no B03pacTY scrynrleHHH B 6paK 1-1 ero npel(parneHHH (Ta61J 6)

T a 6 Jl II II a 6

PacnpeAeneHHe 06cneJ(onaHI1b1x no B03pacTY nCTynneHHII H OpeKpalleJlHSI 6paxa

B(J3pa CT B MOICIiT oc rynnclIHR A (ipallt MII npC Kp3utCIIIIR Opa lw

Bf) 3K3CT 91()1 CllT I ltI r~CA()fJIJIfIiSl II I I I I IIS 19 ~n n 22 21 2middot1 II T JI

18 1955 19 J I shy-ashy20 1 t

VI

21 J 2 I 2 22 6 -4 1 5 TIl I 23 5 5 4 3 -=-1

324 6 7 2 2 1 21 I---= 25 4 4 5 32 )

26 5 7 7 j 2 2 2 17 4 ti 7 G 2 32 28 1945 2 j 2 1 29 1 ) 5 1 2(2 30 2 3 3 1 1 1 2 12 31 21 --~ I I 1 2 1 2

- 1-132 2 3 2 1 12 33 2 -1 5 5 1 ---3-1_1 34 3 4 -tl I 2 11) 1_1_

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152

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152

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7 My x 3 M C1 L Sl pO B ltIgt f K Bonpocy 06 113Y l lCIIlIIl BOCnpOl-l3BO1CtBa IIOKOMIlHJI K33alfcK~rit Mell iKypH3n 11 6 1931

8 My x a M e Jl blip 0 B (Igt r K Bonpocy 06 1I3YIJClIliH nepCgtF111J3eMOCTif B3poclloro TaTapCKoro 113CCJlelillfl Ka3 ~ICl livpH3n Ka3aH 1930

9 My x a 1 ell blip 0 B ltI) r OnblT 1l3Yle1l1lSl nJlOJlOllHTOlTIi gtKCtlWHIlbtshyTaTapKH 1I nepe)KUBaeMOCTll ee peOCHI3 K33 Men )KypHal Ka3a1lEo 1930

10 n a C B C K If ii B B II 51 x 0 H T O B A n a npliMelleHlfli aHaMlICCTlllemiddot CKoro MtTOla B 1eMOrp3cjJIlIl laquoT pYllLJ LleorpacjJllleCKOro l1UCflITYTa AKaae1I111 HayK CCCPraquo T I 1933

I I c 11 II K e B H LJ r n I fclICJleHlle cpeililcro B03paCT1J IIClcrynneHliH 1l[l1l3shyHllKa 110 Kllel11ltllllblM llerllOJl1M rnrn lna 11 3nl11C~1ItworH5Iraquo 1Ii III 1927

152

12 C II H Ii e B 11 q r n BOJloroncKaSl KpCcTb5lHKa u ee peIJelloK M 1929 13 Til MME C OmgtT 13YleIlHSI eCteCTBeliBOro llB10KeBIUI uacelleHIHI B

KI IUI 1 3Ka x T awKellT 1933 14 T If M I E C OnbtT c31l1ITapBo-cT3TlICTIIQCCKOrO UCClcuon3Hllll DnollO-

IITOCTIl TawlCclTT 1936 15 c 0 n T bI C C K I Ii E 11 K nonpocy 0 rtpl1Meliellll1t aHaMHeCTllltteCKoro

~I oaa [l c3I1HTapHo-cTaTlICTIlleCKHX HCCJlenOBalllHIX cr~lIueL1a II caHHTapHlI~ N 3 1949

16 C T P Y M H IT H II C r np06J1eMloi 3KOHOMIIKII TpyJJa [JI V n p06J1(Ma

pll K1l3eMOCTlI B pa60Qerf ceMbe M 1957 17 ill 0 pO ( 0 BaA A MCToLlHKa 1I3)1eHHSI nJlO)JOBlITOCTll qenOBeKa_

T alllKeHT 1935 18 A n s c I L An lhe rate of morlality of early period of life and t he other

~l~li s li cs of families L 1879 19 K nap p L D ie sterblichkeit in Sachsen leipzig 1869 20 K u C z i ns k y R The balance of barlhs an d deaths N J 1928 21 Wei 0 b erg W Die Kinder cler Tuberkulosen LeIpzig 1913

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2 13 a T K II C r A Ol[epKII 110 CTaTHCTIIIeCKOIi MeToaOJtOrllll I K Bonpocy MeTOLlOJlOrtlll IICH1c~eRIHI Cpe)lHerO B03pac-ra 11 MeTOLl H30Xpml Ill H3YleHue 11 10110[lIlTOCTII IV y13Y l lelHle CMCPTHOCTII V feOMeTplll[eCl(He r pacjJuKIl naceshyJI(IIUS VI AnaMHCCTIIIeC)HH leTO B AeMorpaClIlH laquoCOUB3J1bH3n rHrllella~ N 19 1928 ~2 2-3 12-13 N94 (14) 1928

3 13 a T Ilt II C r A K MeTonOJlOnlH 1t3YIJC8Hff BJHHIIIHl lIpocjJCCCl1l 113 nposhyIf~ BonHTe1bHylO cjJYHKlJUlO )KemllIIHbl laquofmUeHa 6C3onaCHoCTb It naTOnOrHH rpyn3 N2 2 M 1930

4 13 0 1I p C K 11 if A 51 It ill Ywe p H B n n Lle~lOrpacjJlJIleCKall CT3T11shyCTHKa M 1955

5 B bt C T P 0 B a B A LlocToeepHoCTb AamrblX nOJlylae~tblx alla~HleCTil-4(CKllM MeTonOM ABTopccjJepaT J1llccepTaUHH M 1954

6 Be H II 6 e p r B MeronIlKa H TeIIIlKa CT3TliCTHKU B nplIJlogtKellllH couliallbllOi 6lonortll1 nepeBoll nOll pCLl A B MOJIhKOB3 M 1928

7 My x 3 M C1 L Sl pO B ltIgt f K Bonpocy 06 113Y l lCIIlIIl BOCnpOl-l3BO1CtBa IIOKOMIlHJI K33alfcK~rit Mell iKypH3n 11 6 1931

8 My x a M e Jl blip 0 B (Igt r K Bonpocy 06 1I3YIJClIliH nepCgtF111J3eMOCTif B3poclloro TaTapCKoro 113CCJlelillfl Ka3 ~ICl livpH3n Ka3aH 1930

9 My x a 1 ell blip 0 B ltI) r OnblT 1l3Yle1l1lSl nJlOJlOllHTOlTIi gtKCtlWHIlbtshyTaTapKH 1I nepe)KUBaeMOCTll ee peOCHI3 K33 Men )KypHal Ka3a1lEo 1930

10 n a C B C K If ii B B II 51 x 0 H T O B A n a npliMelleHlfli aHaMlICCTlllemiddot CKoro MtTOla B 1eMOrp3cjJIlIl laquoT pYllLJ LleorpacjJllleCKOro l1UCflITYTa AKaae1I111 HayK CCCPraquo T I 1933

I I c 11 II K e B H LJ r n I fclICJleHlle cpeililcro B03paCT1J IIClcrynneHliH 1l[l1l3shyHllKa 110 Kllel11ltllllblM llerllOJl1M rnrn lna 11 3nl11C~1ItworH5Iraquo 1Ii III 1927

152

12 C II H Ii e B 11 q r n BOJloroncKaSl KpCcTb5lHKa u ee peIJelloK M 1929 13 Til MME C OmgtT 13YleIlHSI eCteCTBeliBOro llB10KeBIUI uacelleHIHI B

KI IUI 1 3Ka x T awKellT 1933 14 T If M I E C OnbtT c31l1ITapBo-cT3TlICTIIQCCKOrO UCClcuon3Hllll DnollO-

IITOCTIl TawlCclTT 1936 15 c 0 n T bI C C K I Ii E 11 K nonpocy 0 rtpl1Meliellll1t aHaMHeCTllltteCKoro

~I oaa [l c3I1HTapHo-cTaTlICTIlleCKHX HCCJlenOBalllHIX cr~lIueL1a II caHHTapHlI~ N 3 1949

16 C T P Y M H IT H II C r np06J1eMloi 3KOHOMIIKII TpyJJa [JI V n p06J1(Ma

pll K1l3eMOCTlI B pa60Qerf ceMbe M 1957 17 ill 0 pO ( 0 BaA A MCToLlHKa 1I3)1eHHSI nJlO)JOBlITOCTll qenOBeKa_

T alllKeHT 1935 18 A n s c I L An lhe rate of morlality of early period of life and t he other

~l~li s li cs of families L 1879 19 K nap p L D ie sterblichkeit in Sachsen leipzig 1869 20 K u C z i ns k y R The balance of barlhs an d deaths N J 1928 21 Wei 0 b erg W Die Kinder cler Tuberkulosen LeIpzig 1913