Dennis Doyle MN Banker's Presentation Oct 2010
Transcript of Dennis Doyle MN Banker's Presentation Oct 2010
-
8/8/2019 Dennis Doyle MN Banker's Presentation Oct 2010
1/17
Twin Cities Real Estate Update
-
8/8/2019 Dennis Doyle MN Banker's Presentation Oct 2010
2/17
Who is W els h?
-
8/8/2019 Dennis Doyle MN Banker's Presentation Oct 2010
3/17
S pecial Assets
-
8/8/2019 Dennis Doyle MN Banker's Presentation Oct 2010
4/17
Twin Cities Market Update
Residential
7,904 Homes in
foreclosure in Q1 &Q2 2010 (MN H om eOwners h ip Center)
Home prices have
decreased 22-24% in
the Twin Cities since
2006
Retail*
YTD Absorption =
-151,527 SFVacancy = 7.3%
Multi-Fa m ily**
YTD Absorption =
3,500 units absorbedVacancy = 5.0%
Industrial*
Absorption =
593,200 SFVacancy = 11.2%
Office*
Absorption =
-437,777 SFVacancy = 15.5%
Minneapolis Stats
S o urces:
*Stats from Welsh Q3 2010 Market Reports
** Stats from GVA Marquette Advisors Apartment Trends
-
8/8/2019 Dennis Doyle MN Banker's Presentation Oct 2010
5/17
Twin Cities Market Update
Multi-Fa m ily
$122,000/unit; 7.3% Cap
Market Rent = $902 / unit
Retail
$95 PSF; 8.1% Cap Asking Rent = $13.80 PSF net
S o urce: Real Capital Analytics August 2010
-
8/8/2019 Dennis Doyle MN Banker's Presentation Oct 2010
6/17
Twin Cities Market Update
Industrial
$43 PSF or 8.5% Cap
Market Rent = $8.96 PSF net
office and $4.46 PSF netwarehouse
Office
$104 PSF or 9.7% Cap
Market Rent = $12.47 PSF
net
S o urce: Real Capital Analytics August 2010
-
8/8/2019 Dennis Doyle MN Banker's Presentation Oct 2010
7/17
D istributi o n Centers
-
8/8/2019 Dennis Doyle MN Banker's Presentation Oct 2010
8/17
Nati o nal Net Abs o rpti o n
S o urce: 2010 CoStar Group
-
8/8/2019 Dennis Doyle MN Banker's Presentation Oct 2010
9/17
Nati o nal Pr o perty S ales
S o urce: Real Capital Analytics August 2010
-
8/8/2019 Dennis Doyle MN Banker's Presentation Oct 2010
10/17
Nati o nal Cap Rates
S o urce: Real Capital Analytics August 2010
-
8/8/2019 Dennis Doyle MN Banker's Presentation Oct 2010
11/17
Nati o nal Real Estate L o ans Outstanding
As of 1 st Quarter 2010
S o urce: MBA of America
Quarterly Data Book
S avingsInstituti o ns5.6%
S tate and L o calGo vern m ent 2.8%
-
8/8/2019 Dennis Doyle MN Banker's Presentation Oct 2010
12/17
Nati o nal CMB S Maturities
$185 billion of vintage 05-07 loans come due in 2010-2012.
S o urce: JCR Capital www.jcrcapital.com
-
8/8/2019 Dennis Doyle MN Banker's Presentation Oct 2010
13/17
W els h Rules: Keep Real Estate S im ple
Purchase/Development 50%
Management/Ownership 30%
Financing 10%
Sale 10%
1. Owners h ip
2. Expenditures
5 Fact o rs affecting Real Estate Invest m ents
3. Land
4. Rec o very Cycle
Housing Apartments Retail Industrial Office
5. Market Cycles
-
8/8/2019 Dennis Doyle MN Banker's Presentation Oct 2010
14/17
W els h Rules: Keep Real Estate S im ple
Assess t h e value o f real estate1. Location
2. Function
3. N.O.I. (1 st 3 yr.) / cash flow inds. / value add office
4. Credit of Tenants
5. Price/ SF
Valuing Commercial Real Estate is an art, not a science.
-
8/8/2019 Dennis Doyle MN Banker's Presentation Oct 2010
15/17
To p Negatives in t h e Market T o day
1. Deleveraging: No man left behind
2. High vacancy rates, falling rents, fewer deals
3. Values are down 20-40% overall
4. Financing is very tough
5. Government angst and uncertainty
-
8/8/2019 Dennis Doyle MN Banker's Presentation Oct 2010
16/17
To p P o sitives in t h e Market T o day
1. Low interest rates
2. Few new developments
3. Market appraisals on real estate
4. Minneapolis real estate market has reached bottom
Recent Minneapolis Sales
-
8/8/2019 Dennis Doyle MN Banker's Presentation Oct 2010
17/17
Twin Cities Real Estate Update