Escenarios, Juegos y

Estrategias

Modelos participativso y manejo multi-actores de

recursos naturales

Claudio Garcia

FORDEV

FORDEV

Karbi Anglong

TiCoYa

Juegos

• The purpose of scenario

planning is not to pinpoint

future events but to

highlight large-scale

forces that push the future

in different directions.

• It's about making these

forces visible

• It's about helping make

better decisions today.

http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html

Que trayectoria?

Quién elige?

Que techo? Para la seguridad de quién?

Quién gana?

Quién pierde?

Que objetivos?

Resiliencia de

qué? Para

quién?

1 2

3

December 15,

2014

WCA 2014 – Delhi 14

Biodiversity

changes

Forest to

Agroforest

Landscape Trends

December 15,

2014

WCA 2014 – Delhi 16

Stand dynamics

Biodiversity

changes

Forest to

Agroforest

Reducing

canopy

Replacing

by

G. robusta

Tree

ownership

rights

Implementation

of public policies Labor costs

Coffee

prices

fluctuation

Timber

smuggling

Timber Rights

Cheynier 2006

Timber Rights

“While conferring ownership rights […] right over the

tree growth may be excluded. As otherwise, it is

apprehended that in 10 years time the entire tree

growth is likely to disappear.”

- G.K. Lokare, Secy. to Govt., Revenue Dept., 22/9/99

ComMod: Objectives

1rst : to improve knowledge / understanding

2nd : to support collective decision-making

processes

Through Modeling

WCA 2014 – Delhi 25

Coffee

owner

InputIrrigation

infrastructure

Labor

buys

hires

works

climbs on

Management

bloc

Market Forest Dpt

Timber

merchant

sells

sell

buys

buys

enforces policies

Conceptual Model

Role Playing Game

Grevillea robusta

FermePoivre Force de travail

Irrigation

IntrantsPerche

Régénération naturelle

Arbre élagué

Junglewood

Caféier10 cm

Scenarios

• No Tree Rights

– Difficult to sale Jungle Wood on the legal

market

– No restrictions on Silver Oak

• Tree Rights

– No restrictions on Jungle Wood as well as

on Silver Oak

December 15,

2014

WCA 2014 – Delhi 28

Result - Livelihood

0

50

100

150

200

250

1 2 3 4 5

Farm

er'

sIn

co

me

(in

CIN

C)

Game Turns

Average Income: Coffee + Pepper + Timber

No TreeRights

Tree Rights

Result – Tree cover

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 1 2 3 4 5

Tree Rights

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 1 2 3 4 5

No Tree Rights

Trees Saplings Seedlings

Result - Biodiversity

0%

50%

100%

0 1 2 3 4 5

No Tree Rights

0%

50%

100%

0 1 2 3 4 5

Tree Rights

Jungle Wood Silver Oak

Biodiversity

changes

Forest to

Agroforest

Opening

the canopy

Planting

G. robusta

Tree

ownership

rights

Implementation

of public policies Labor costs

Coffee

prices

fluctuation

Timber

smuggling

Tree

Ownership

rights

Certification

GI

PES

1

3

2

Multi-Agent Universe

Information Action

5

Coffee

owner

InputIrrigation

infrastructure

Labor

buys

hires

works

climbs on

Management

bloc

Market Forest Dpt

Timber

merchant

sells

sell

buys

buys

enforces policies

Conceptual model

Stupid agent Applet

Conceptual model

Online Platform

http://www.fordev-kodagu.ethz.ch/

AAR

Outcome?

SCENARIOS

++ + + -LIVELIHOODS

- + - - -CULTURAL IDENTITY

+ ++ - ++BIODIVERSITY

S1 S2 S3 S4

AAR

Landscape Trends

http://www.fordev-kodagu.ethz.ch/

https://www.facebook.com/fordev.eth

Sígannos!