2016 presentation dec 6

2014 Election Updates & Insights

NCFEF is a non-partisan, nonprofit organization that conducts impartial, objective research and

analysis on candidates, campaigns, voter attitudes and demographic changes that impact

North Carolina’s political landscape.Joe StewartExecutive [email protected]

(919) 614-0520www.ncfef.org

@ncfef

NCFEF

2015 NCFEF Conventional Voting Behavior (CVB)

Partisan topography of NC

has shifted fromWest v. East

toUrban v. Rural

NC CVBCOMP

In URBAN – RURAL partisan alignment

SUBURBS = BATTLE GROUND

50%Non-

Native

Most RuralUrban State

Continued growth

2015 NCFEF Conventional Voting Behavior (CVB)

North Carolina – larger, more diverse, older

Total Populatio

nWhit

eBlac

kHispanic

Other 65+ 64 -

18 <18

1990

6,628,63775.6

%22.0

% 1.2% 1.2% 12.1%

63.5%

Med Age35.8

24.4%

2015

10,042,802

63.8%

22.1% 9.1% 5.0% 15.1

%

62.1%

Med Age

37.8

22.8%

NC’s Estimated Hispanic Population by 2050

30%

North Carolina’s Shifting Political Landscape

NC Population Growth Not Even49 NC counties have lost population since

2010(2014 Census Bureau Data)

Population growth brings greater

urbanization &

demographic diversity

Generational shift in partisan

and ideological orientation

Continued globalization

and of economy

Urbanization and Partisan Voting Performance

Year NC Population Growth

2010 9,535,475+507,327

2015 10,042,802MECKLENBUR

G WAKE

2010 919,628 900,9932015 1,034,070 1,024,198GAIN +114,442 +123,205

Big City Business Community

Annual Budget of Chambers of Commerce

Charlotte Chamber $8,360,551Raleigh Chamber $6,319,011

NC Chamber $4,931,226


MECK WAKE

1988 Dukakis 40.2% 42.8%Bush 59.4% 56.9%


MECK WAKE

2000 Gore 48.2% 46.0%Bush 51.0% 53.1%

1988 Dukakis 40.2% 42.8%Bush 59.4% 56.9%


MECK WAKE

2012 Obama 60.8% 54.5%Romney 38.3% 44.2%

2000 Gore 48.2% 46.0%Bush 51.0% 53.1%

1988 Dukakis 40.2% 42.8%Bush 59.4% 56.9%


MECK WAKE

2016 Clinton 62.3% 57.4%Trump 32.9% 37.2%

2012 Obama 60.8% 54.5%Romney 38.3% 44.2%

2000 Gore 48.2% 46.0%Bush 51.0% 53.1%

Partisan Ideological Trends 1998 - 2016Chart tracks the self-described ideology of North Carolina voters from

1998 – 2016. Source, North Carolina polling data from Capitol Communications, conducted by Diversified Research, Inc.

October 1998 October 2000 October 2012 October 2014 August 2015 April 2016

-40.00%

-20.00%

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

33.7% 29.5%

22.7%

24.0%16.4% 23.1%

14.5% 11.4%

-18.7% -12.2%-24.0% -19.2%

62.9% 59.2%

75.6% 79.1%70.4% 74.8%

16.2% 15.2%

24.8%

14.4% 16.4% 20.0%

Partisan Ideological Trends

North Carolina Democrats Republicans Unaffilated

Courtesy of Strategic Partners Solutions, LLC

Estimated NC Voter Reg by Generation

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 422920%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2%4%

8%10%

16%18%

24%26% 27%

22% 23% 25% 25% 26% 26% 25%25% 27%

45% 43%41% 40%

36% 35%33% 32%

33%31%

29%26% 25%

22% 21%18% 17%

13%

Millennials Generation X Baby Boomer SilentDr. Michael BitzerCatawba College

RESEARCH TRIANGLE - 27 point swing08: D +21% 04: R +6%Obama v. Kerry = +130,339

Obama 2012: +18%

PIEDMONT TRIAD - 15 point swing 08: D +1% 04: R +14%

Obama v. Kerry = +81,319

Obama 2012: +2%

In NC, Obama (2008) won 334,876 more votes than Kerry (2004) in core Metros

CHARLOTTE METRO - 18 point swing08: D +7% 04: R +11%

Obama v. Kerry = +123,218

Obama 2012: +4%

2016 Election

2012 Early Voting

2016 Early Voting

2016 Early Voting

2012: 738,570

2012: 1,682,053

Turnout

Year Early% of votes cast

Election Day

Turnout

% of reg voters

20082,476,411

56.88%1,809,166

4,353,739

69.93%

Turnout


Election Day

Turnout

% of reg voters

20082,476,411

56.88%1,809,166

4,353,739

69.93%

20122,745,914

60.95%1,736,377

4,505,372

68.42%

Turnout


Election Day

Turnout

% of reg voters

20082,476,411

56.88%1,809,166

4,353,739

69.93%

20122,745,914

60.95%1,736,377

4,505,372

68.42%

20163,102,834

65.8%1,612,924

4,715,758

68.2%

2016 President – Final Polls

2016 President – North Carolina

Trump

49.9%✔

Clinton

46.1%

Johnson

2.7%

2016 President – North Carolina

2016 President – Exit Polls

2016 US Senate – Final Polls

2016 US Senate

Haugh (L)

3.6%

Burr (R) – I

51.1%✔

Ross (D)

45.3%

2016 US Senate

NC Congressional Districts

DISTRICT, CVB, REGISTRATION WINNERNC 1 – Strong DEM: Bertie, Durham, Edgecombe, Gates, Granville,

Halifax, Hertford, Martin, Northampton, Pitt, Vance, Warren, Washington, Wilson

61.6%-15.3%-22.8%-0.3%

✔G. K. Butterfield (I) – 68.6%

NC 2 – Strong REP: Franklin, Harnett, Johnston, Nash, Wake, Wilson36.1%-34.7%-28.8%-0.5%

✔George Holding (I) – 56.7%

NC 3 – Lean REP: Beaufort, Camden, Carteret, Chowan, Craven, Currituck, Dare, Greene, Hyde, Jones, Lenoir, Onslow, Pamlico,

Pasquotank, Perquimans, Pitt, Tyrrell38.0%-31.8%-29.8%-0.4%

✔Walter B. Jones (I) – 67.3%

NC 4 – Strong DEM: Durham, Orange, Wake44.3%-20.8%-34.3%-0.6% ✔David Price (I) – 68.2%

NC 5 – Strong REP; Alexander, Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Catawba, Forsyth, Stokes, Surry, Watauga, Wilkes, Yadkin

34.3%-37.9%-27.3%-0.4%✔Virginia Foxx (I) –

58.5%

NC 6 – Strong REP: Alamance, Caswell, Chatham, Guilford, Lee, Person, Randolph, Rockingham39.0%-33.6%-27.0%-0.4%

✔B. Mark Walker (I) – 59.3%

NC 7 – Lean REP: Bladen, Brunswick, Columbus, Duplin, Johnston, New Hanover, Pender, Sampson, Wayne

38.4%-32.7%-28.5%-0.4%✔David Rouzer (I) –

61.0%

2016 US House

DISTRICT, CVB, REGISTRATION WINNER

NC 8 – Lean REP: Cabarrus, Cumberland, Hoke, Montgomery, Moore, Rowan, Stanly

36.8%-33.8%-29.0%-0.4%✔Richard Hudson (I) –

58.8%

NC 9 – Strong REP: Anson, Bladen, Cumberland, Mecklenburg, Richmond, Robeson, Scotland, Union

40.9%-31.5%-27.3%-0.3%✔Robert Pittenger (I) –

58.3%

NC 10 – Strong REP: Buncombe, Catawba, Cleveland, Gaston, Iredell, Lincoln, Polk, Rutherford

34.6%-35.2%-29.8%-0.4%✔Patrick McHenry (I) –

63.1%

NC 11 – Strong REP: Buncombe, Burke, Caldwell, Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Haywood, Henderson, Jackson, Macon, Madison, McDowell,

Mitchell, Swain, Transylvania, Yancey31.9%-35.1%-32.5%-0.4%

✔Mark Meadows (I) – 64.1%

NC 12 – Strong DEM: Mecklenburg50.2%-20.7%-28.6%-0.5% ✔Alma Adams (I) – 67.0%

NC 13 – Lean REP OPEN SEAT: Davidson, Davie, Guilford, Iredell, Rowan

37.2%-35.0%-27.4%-0.4%✔Ted Budd – 56.1%

2016 US House

2016 NC Supreme CourtEdmunds Seat

Robert H. Edmunds R-

Guilford

45.5%

Michael MorganD-Wake

54.5%✔

CANDIDATES VOTE CANDIDATES VOTE

Linda Stephens (D) 48.7% ✔Valarie Zackery (R) 53.8%

✔Phil Berger, Jr. (R) 50.3% RickyeMcKoy-Mitchell (D) 46.2%

✔Bob Hunter (R) 54.4% ✔Richard Dietz (R) 53.5%Abe Jones (D) 45.6% Vince Rozier (D) 46.5%

OPEN SEAT

✔Hunter Murphy (R) 48.8%Margaret Eagles (D) 45.5%

Donald R. Buie (U) 5.7%

2016 NC Court of Appeals

2016 Governor

Cecil – (L) McCrory (R) - I Cooper - (D)

2016 Governor

Cecil (L)

2.2%

McCrory (R) – I

48.8%

Cooper (D)

49.0%✔

2016 Governor

HB2: Right Center v. Crap from your family in NJ

2012 Amendment One

Buncombe

48.5%

Watauga49.2%

Mecklenburg

48.8%

Chatham46.1%

Wake43.2%

Durham30.3%

Orange21.0%

Dare49.4%

POLL FAVOR HB2

OPPOSE HB2

NO OPINION

PPP (Apr 22 – 24) 36% 45% 19%ELON U (Apr 10 – 15) 49% 39% 11%

WRAL (Apr 8 – 11) 56% 34% 10%TWC (Apr 1 – 3) 51% 40% 9%

AVERAGE 48% 40% 12%

PPP (Aug 10) 58% Hurts NC22% Helps NC

CNN Poll (Aug 23)White Women

Burr/Ross 55% - 33%McCrory/Cooper 56% - 40%

HB2

RACE CANDIDATES VOTE

Lt. Governor✔Forest (I) – 51.9%Coleman – 45.3%

Cole – 2.9%

OPEN SEATAttorney General

Newton – 49.8%✔Stein – 50.2%

AuditorStuber – 49.9%

✔Wood (I) – 50.1%

Agriculture Commissioner

✔Troxler (I) – 55.6%Smith – 44.4%

Insurance Commissioner✔Causey – 50.4%

Goodwin (I) – 49.6%

2016 NC Council of State

RACE CANDIDATES VOTE

Labor Commission✔Berry (I) – 55.2%

Meeker – 44.7%

Secretary of StateLaPaglia – 47.8%

✔Marshall (I) – 52.5%

Superintendent of Public Instruction

✔Johnson – 50.6%

Atkinson (I) – 49.4%

OPEN SEATState Treasurer

✔Folwell – 52.7%

Blue – 47.3%


Votes Cast OfficeBallot Order

4,688,664 President-28,914 Governor 1-89,550 Lt. Governor 2

-125,967 Attorney General 3-164,620 Agriculture 5-168,139 Labor 7-176,506 Secretary of State 8-189,866 Public Instruction 9-194,889 Auditor 4-201,730 Insurance Commissioner 6-204,701 State Treasurer 10


2016 General Election – 50% of Votes

WAKE

MECKL

ENBU

RG

GUILFORD

FORSY

TH

DURHAM

BUNCOMBE

CUMBERLA

ND

NEW HAN

OVER

UNION

41.54%37.04%

40.58%46.26%

21.74%

40.77% 41.25%

51.03%

65.06%

37.92% 34.17% 37.02% 41.55%

19.79%

37.57% 41.87% 46.26%

63.58%

37.23% 32.90% 38.16% 42.66% 18.22% 40.11% 40.25% 49.55% 63.17%

BURR % McCRORY % TRUMP %

2016 General Election – Biggest Vote Margin

RANDOLP

H

DAVIDSO

N

UNION

GASTON

IREDEL

L

CATA

WBA -

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000 36,082 35,542

32,214 30,485 29,723

27,012

34,681 35,108 35,566 29,581 28,589 26,382

29,901 28,380 30,677 26,208 22,114 22,449

TRUMP V CLINTON BURR v ROSSMcCRORY v COOPER

NC General AssemblyDIST CVB RATING SR LR COMP LD SD

CURRENT

NC House74–45–1 59 14 8

3R 4D 1U 2 37NC

Senate34–16 24 6 4

4 GOP 0 16

NC General AssemblyDIST CVB RATING SR LR COMP LD SD

CURRENT

NC House74–45–1 59 14 8

3R 4D 1U 2 37NC

Senate34–16 24 6 4

4 GOP 0 162017

NC House74–46 59

57D 2D1412R 2D

84R 4D 2 37

1R 36D

NC Senate35–15 24 6 4

4 GOP 0 161R 15D

Observations on 2016 Election

CVB for NC SENATE 34 REP – 16 DEMSTRONG DEM (16) COMPETITIVE (4) LEAN REP (6) STRONG REP (24)

28 RobinsonGuilford

21

ClarkHoke

19 MeredithCumberland

8 RabonBrunswick

50 DavisMacon

24 GunnAlamance

39

Rucho (NR)Mecklenburg

40 Waddell*Mecklenburg

5 DavisGreene

1 CookBeaufort

9 Lee*New Hanover

46 DanielBurke

47 HiseMitchell

31

KrawiecForsyth

38 FordMecklenburg

13

Smith*Robeson

25 McInnis*Richmond

15 Alexander*Wake

27 WadeGuilford

2 SandersonPamlico

44

CurtisLincoln

14 BlueWake

23

FousheeOrange

18 BarefootWake

10 B. JacksonSampson

11Newton

(NR)Wilson

45 Ballard**Watauga

35

TuckerUnion

20 McKissickDurham

22

WoodardDurham

12 RabinHarnett

6 BrownOnslow

48 Apodaca (NR)Henderson

42

Wells*Catawba

4 BryantNash

37

J. JacksonMecklenburg

17 BarringerWake

41 TarteMecklenburg

36 Hartsell (NR)Cabarrus

33

Bingham (NR)Davidson

3Smith-

Ingram*Edgecombe

16

Chaudhuri**Wake

26 BergerRockingham

43 HarringtonGaston

30

RandlemanWilkes

32 Lowe*Forsyth

49

Van Duyn*Buncombe

*freshman **appointeditalics = winner

NR = not running in 20167 Pate

Wayne34 Brock

Davie29

TillmanRandolph

CVB for NC SENATE 35 REP – 15 DEMSTRONG DEM (16) COMPETITIVE (4) LEAN REP (6) STRONG REP (24)

28 RobinsonGuilford

21

ClarkHoke

19 MeredithCumberland

8 RabonBrunswick

50 DavisMacon

24 GunnAlamance

39

BISHOPMecklenburg

40 WaddellMecklenburg

5 DavisGreene

1 CookBeaufort

9 LeeNew Hanover

46 DanielBurke

47 HiseMitchell

31

KrawiecForsyth

38 FordMecklenburg

13

BrittRobeson

25 McInnisRichmond

15 AlexanderWake

27 WadeGuilford

2 SandersonPamlico

44

CurtisLincoln

14 BlueWake

23

FousheeOrange

18 BarefootWake

10 B. JacksonSampson

11 HORNERWilson

45 BallardWatauga

35

TuckerUnion

20 McKissickDurham

22

WoodardDurham

12 RabinHarnett

6 BrownOnslow

48 EDWARDSHenderson

42

WellsCatawba

4 BryantNash

37

J. JacksonMecklenburg

17 BarringerWake

41 TarteMecklenburg

36 NEWTONCabarrus

33

DUNNDavidson

3Smith-Ingram

Edgecombe

16

CHAUDHURIWake

26 BergerRockingham

43 HarringtonGaston

30

RandlemanWilkes

32 LoweForsyth

49

Van DuynBuncombe

7 PateWayne

34 BrockDavie

29

TillmanRandolph

NC Senate DistrictsIn Lawsuit

DIST CVB WINNER

3 SD Erica Smith-Ingram5 SD Don Davis6 SR Harry Brown7 SR Louis Pate8 LR Bill Rabon

10 LR Brent Jackson14 SD Dan Blue26 SR Phil Berger29 SR Jerry Tillman31 SR Joyce Krawiec32 SD Paul Lowe34 SR Andrew C. Brock35 SR Tommy Tucker42 SR Andy Wells43 SR Kathy Harrington

2016 NC Senate – WINNERS

2016 NC SENATEDIST CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES

1 CO 1,165 80.0✔Bill Cook (I) – 59.2%

Brownie Futrell – 40.8%

2 SR 3,151 90.0✔Norman Sanderson (I) – 66.3%

Dorothea White – 33.7%

4 SD -3,495 45.0✔Angela R. Bryant (I) – 67.7%

Richard Scott – 32.3%

9 LR 13,579 90.0✔Michael Lee (I) – 57.4%

Andrew Barnhill – 42.6%

2016 NC SENATE

DIST CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES

12 LR 15,450 90.0✔Ronald Rabin (I) – 57.6%

Susan Byerly – 42.4%

13 SD -553 54.2Jane W. Smith (I) – 44.8%

✔Danny Earl (JR) Britt – 55.2%

15 LR 16,411 65.0

✔John Alexander (I) – 50.0%

Laurel Deegan-Fricke – 45.7%

Brad Hessell – 4.3%

2016 NC SENATE


17 LR 27,427 80.0

✔Tamara Barringer (I) – 48.3%

Susan Evans – 47.5%

Susan Hogarth – 4.2%

18 CO 16,934 90.0✔Chad Barefoot (I) – 55.4%

Gil Johnson – 44.6%

19 CO 5,560 78.9✔Wesley Meredith (I) – 56.5%

Toni Morris – 43.5%


20 SD 9,597 32.5✔Floyd B. McKissick, Jr. (I) – 81.6%

Barbara Howe – 18.4%

21 SD 5,996 77.5✔Ben Clark (I) – 71.8%

Dan Travieso – 28.2%

22 SD 14,891 52.3✔Mike Woodard (I) – 65.5%

Greg Doucette – 34.5%

23 SD 11,812 37.2✔Valerie P. Foushee (I) – 68.0%

Mary Lopez Carter – 32.0%


24 SR 4,950 95.0✔Rick Gunn (I) – 60.9%

John Thorpe – 39.1%

25 CO -2,603 90.0✔Tom McInnis (I) – 63.9%

Dannie Montgomery – 36.1%

27 SR 9,258 90.0✔Trudy Wade (I) – 53.2%

Michael Garrett – 46.8%

28 SD 7,432 28.6✔Gladys A. Robinson (I) – 83.8%

Devin R. King – 16.2%

2016 NC SENATE


30 SR -2,189 90.0✔Shirley Randleman (I) – 72.6%

Michael Holleman – 27.4%

37 SD 15,790 38.2✔Jeff Jackson (I) – 67.9%

Bob Diamond – 32.1%

38 SD 22,663 70.0✔Joel Ford (I) – 79.2%

Richard Rivette – 20.8%


40 SD 12,219 35.8✔Joyce Waddell (I) – 82.4%Marguerite Cooke – 17.6%

41 SR 28,598 90.0✔Jeff Tarte (I) – 54.6%

Jonathan Hudson – 40.6%Chris Cole – 4.8%

44 SR 8,165 90.0✔David L. Curtis (I) – 77.3%

Nick Haag – 22.7%

46 SR -2,428 80.5✔Warren Daniel (I) – 66.2%

Anne Fischer – 33.8%

2016 NC SENATE


47 SR -1,473 85.8✔Ralph Hise (I) – 64.9%

Mary Jane Boyd – 35.1%

49 SD 8,910 45.0✔Terry Van Duyn (I) – 74.4%

William Meredith – 24.6%

50 SR 865 87.5✔Jim Davis (I) – 62.5%

Jane Hipps – 37.5%

2016 OPEN SEAT RACES – NC SENATEDIST & INCUMBENT CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES

11NEWTON (R)

SR

4,638

79.4

✔Rick Horner – 61.2%Albert Pacer – 38.8%

16STEIN (D) SD 17,905

40.0

Eric Weaver – 34.7%✔Jay Chaudhuri – 65.3%

33BINGHAM (R) SR

791

85.8

✔Cathy Dunn – 71.6%Jim Beall Graham – 28.4%

36HARTSELL (R) SR 14,784 85.5

✔Paul R. Newton – 62.6%Robert Brown – 37.4%

2016 OPEN SEAT RACES – NC SENATE

DIST & INCUMBENT CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES

39RUCHO (R)

SR

13,641 83.0

✔Dan Bishop – 56.8%

Lloyd Scher – 43.2%

45SOUCEK (R) SR -519 85.0

✔Deanna Ballard – 65.0%

Art Sherwood – 35.0%

48APODACA (R) SR 7,675

95.0

✔Chuck Edwards – 62.0%

Norman Bossert – 38.0%

STRONG DEM (37) LEAN REP (14) STRONG REP (59)

29 L. HallDurham

114

FisherBuncombe 66 Goodman

Richmond118

PresnellYancey

55

BrodyUnion 86 Blackwell

Burke110

HastingsGaston 96 Adams*

Catawba

106

CunninghamMecklenburg 42 Lucas

Cumberland 39 JacksonWake

49

Pendleton*Wake

14

ClevelandOnslow 82 Pittman

Cabarrus 77 WarrenRowan 69 Arp

Union

102

CarneyMecklenburg 5 Hunter

Hertford 50 MeyerOrange 9 Murphy**

Pitt36

DollarWake 15 Shepard

Onslow 98 Bradford*Mecklenburg 13 McElraft

Carteret

31 MichauxDurham 32

Baskerville (NR)Garrison

VanceLEAN DEM (2) 4

5Szoka

Cumberland40

AvilaWake

109

BumgardnerGaston 91 Hall**

Stokes 81 Brown (NR)Davidson

33 GillWake 72 Hanes

Forsyth 54 ReivesLee

63

RossAlamance

37

Stam (NR)Wake 26 Daughtry (NR)

Johnston 74 ConradForsyth 87

Robinson(D. Hall)Caldwell

99 R. MooreMecklenburg

100

Cotham (NR)Autry

Mecklenburg44 Richardson**

Cumberland53

LewisHarnett

62

BlustGuilford 16 Millis

Pender104

Bishop (NR)Mecklenburg 76 Ford

Rowan

38 Lewis HolleyWake 23 Willingham*

Edgecombe COMP (8) 93

JordanAshe

111

T. MooreCleveland 83 Johnson

Cabarrus 10 J. BellWayne 95 Fraley

Iredell

60 Brockman*Guilford 47 C. Graham

Robeson 119 QueenHaywood 1 Steinburg

Chowan75

LambethForsyth 19 Davis

New Hanover 84 R. TurnerIredell 89 Setzer

Catawba

58 Sgro*Guilford 30 Luebke

Durham 2 Yarborough*Person

65

JonesRockingham

88

BryanMecklenburg 4 Dixon

Duplin 17 IlerBrunswick 68 Horn

Union

107

AlexanderMecklenburg 43 Floyd

Cumberland 22 BrissonBladen 3 Speciale

Craven25

CollinsNash 59 Hardister

Guilford108

TorbettGaston 94 Elmore

Wilkes

56 InskoOrange 21 L. Bell

Sampson 92 Moore**Mecklenburg

51

Salmon*Harnett

103

BrawleyMecklenburg 61 Faircloth

Guilford105

Schaffer (NR)Mecklenburg 79 Howard

Davie

24Farmer-

ButterfieldWilson

7 RichardsonFranklin 115 Ager*

Buncombe64

RiddellAlamance

Catlin (NR)Grange

New Hanover52 Boles

Moore 97 SaineLincoln

48 PierceScotland 18 Hamilton

New Hanover 6 Tine (NR)Dare

116

B. Turner*Buncombe

Rogers**Rutherford

117

McGradyHenderson 85 Dobson

McDowell

71 TerryForsyth 34 G. Martin

Wake 8 S. MartinWilson

35

MaloneWake

Whitmire (NR)Transylvania

120

West (NR)Cherokee 73 Zachary*

Yadkin

57 HarrisonGuilford 12 Graham

Lenoir 41 Adcock*Wake 28 Langdon (NR)

Johnston 80 WatfordDavidson

27 WrayNorthampton 11 D. Hall

Wake *freshman **appointed italics = winnerNR = not running in 2016

90 StevensSurry 70 Hurley

Randolph

101

EarleMecklenburg 46 Waddell (NR)

Columbus 67 BurrStanly 78 McNeill

Randolph

CVB for NC HOUSE 74 REP – 45 DEM – 1 UNA

STRONG DEM (37) LEAN REP (14) STRONG REP (59)

29 L. HallDurham

114

FisherBuncombe 66 Goodman

Richmond118

PresnellYancey

55

BrodyUnion

86

BlackwellBurke

110

HastingsGaston 96 Adams

Catawba

106

CunninghamMecklenburg 42 Lucas

Cumberland 39 JacksonWake

49

BALLWake

14

ClevelandOnslow

82

PittmanCabarrus 77 Warren

Rowan 69 ArpUnion

102

CarneyMecklenburg 5 Hunter

Hertford 50 MeyerOrange 9 MURPHY

Pitt36

DollarWake

15

ShepardOnslow 98 Bradford

Mecklenburg 13 McElraftCarteret

31 MichauxDurham 32 GARRISON

Vance LEAN DEM (2) 45

SzokaCumberland

40

JOHNWake

109

BumgardnerGaston 91 K. HALL

Stokes 81 POTTSDavidson

33 GillWake 72 Hanes

Forsyth 54 ReivesLee

63

RossAlamance

37

HUNT-WILLIAMS

Wake26

WHITEJohnston 74 Conrad

Forsyth 87 D. HALLCaldwell

99 R. MooreMecklenburg

100

AUTRYMecklenburg 44 Richardson

Cumberland53

LewisHarnett

62

BlustGuilford

16

MillisPender

104

DULINMecklenburg 76 Ford

Rowan

38 Lewis HolleyWake 23 Willingham

Edgecombe COMP (8) 93

JordanAshe

111

T. MooreCleveland

83

JohnsonCabarrus 10 J. Bell

Wayne 95 FraleyIredell

60 BrockmanGuilford 47 C. Graham

Robeson 119 CLAMPITTHaywood 1 Steinburg

Chowan75

LambethForsyth

19

DavisNew Hanover 84 R. Turner

Iredell 89 SetzerCatawba

58 QUICKGuilford 30 Luebke*

Durham 2 YarboroughPerson

65

JonesRockingham

88

BELKMecklenburg 4 Dixon

Duplin 17 IlerBrunswick 68 Horn

Union

107

AlexanderMecklenburg 43 Floyd

Cumberland 22 BrissonBladen 3 Speciale

Craven25

CollinsNash

59

HardisterGuilford

108

TorbettGaston 94 Elmore

Wilkes

56 InskoOrange 21 L. Bell

Sampson 92 BEASLEYMecklenburg

51

SAULSHarnett

103

BrawleyMecklenburg

61

FairclothGuilford

105

STONEMecklenburg 79 Howard

Davie

24Farmer-

ButterfieldWilson

7 RichardsonFranklin 115 Ager

Buncombe64

RiddellAlamance

20

GRANGENew Hanover 52 Boles

Moore 97 SaineLincoln

48 PierceScotland 18 Hamilton

New Hanover 6 BOSWELLDare

116

B. TurnerBuncombe

112

ROGERSRutherford

117

McGradyHenderson 85 Dobson

McDowell

71 TerryForsyth 34 G. Martin

Wake 8 S. MartinWilson

35

MaloneWake

113

HENSONTransylvania

120

CORBINCherokee 73 Zachary

Yadkin

57 HarrisonGuilford 12 Graham

Lenoir 41 AdcockWake 28 STRICKLAND

Johnston 80 WatfordDavidson

27 WrayNorthampton 11 D. Hall

Wake 90 StevensSurry 70 Hurley

Randolph

101

EarleMecklenburg 46 B. JONES

Columbus 67 BurrStanly 78 McNeill

Randolph

CVB for NC HOUSE 74 REP – 46 DEM

NC House DistrictsIn Lawsuit

2016 NC House – WINNERSDIST CVB INCUMBENT DIST CVB INCUMBENT DIST CVB INCUMBENT

4 SR Jimmy Dixon 48 SD Garland E. Pierce 78 SR Allen McNeill

5 SD Howard Hunter III 52 SR Jamie Boles 79 SR Julia Howard

12 SD George Graham 56 SD Verla Insko 80 SR Sam Watford

14 SR George G. Cleveland 57 SD Pricey Harrison 85 SR Josh Dobson

19 SR Ted Davis, Jr. 60 SD Cecil Brockman 89 SR Mitchell Setzer

21 SD Larry M. Bell 61 SR John Faircloth 95 SR John Fraley

22 COMP William D. Brisson 62 SR John Blust 96 SR Jay Adams

23 SD Shelly Willingham 63 LR Steve Ross 97 SR Jason Saine

24 SD Jean Farmer-Butterfield 64 LR Dennis Riddell 99 SD Rodney Moore

27 SD Michael Wray 66 SD Ken Goodman 102 SD Becky Carney

29 SD Larry Hall 68 SR Craig Horn 106 SD Carla Cunningham

31 SD Mickey Michaux 71 SD Evelyn Terry 107 SD Kelly Alexander

33 SD Rosa Gill 72 SD Ed Hanes 108 SR John A. Torbett

39 SD Darren Jackson 73 SR Lee Zachary 110 SR Kelly Hastings

42 SD Marvin W. Lucas 75 SR Donny Lambeth 111 SR Tim Moore

43 SD Elmer Floyd 76 SR Carl Ford 114 SD Susan C. Fisher

45 LR John Szoka 77 SR Harry Warren 116 LR Brian Turner

47 SD Charles Graham 117 SR Chuck McGrady

2016 NC HOUSEDIST CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES

1 LR 768 92.5 ✔Bob Steinburg (I) – 64.1%Sam Davis – 35.9%

2 CO -1,605 85 ✔Larry Yarborough (I) – 60.6%Joe Parish – 39.4%

3 LR 368 71.7 ✔Michael Speciale (I) – 64.9%Marva Fisher Baldwin – 35.1%

7 SD -72 44.2 ✔Bobbie J. Richardson (I) – 67.8% William D. Hancock II – 32.2%


8 CO 1,861 90 ✔Susan Martin (I) – 50.2%Charlie Patt Farris – 49.8%

10 SR 8,137 92.5 ✔John R. Bell (I) – 71.7%Evelyn Paul – 28.3%

11 SD 5,646 54.2✔Duane Hall (I) – 60.8%

Ray Martin – 32.0%Brian Lewis – 7.2%

13 SR 2,265 95 ✔Pat McElraft (I) – 70.8%Rodney Alexander – 29.2%


15 SR 811 90 ✔Phillip Shepard (I) – 69.6%Dan Whitten – 30.4%

16 SR 7,204 81.7 ✔Chris W. Millis (I) – 67.1%Steve Unger – 32.9%

17 SR 7,812 90 ✔Frank Iler (I) – 66.4%Charles Warren – 33.6%

18 SD 4,737 68.9 ✔Susi Hamilton (I) – 61.1%Gerald Benton – 39.9%


25 SR 830 85.5 ✔Jeff Collins (I) – 68.1%James D. Gailliard – 31.9%

30 SD 11,548 11.3 ✔Paul Luebke (I) – 73.9%Elissa Fuchs – 26.1%

34 SD 2,625 29.1 ✔Grier Martin (I) – 67.6%Bill Morris – 32.4%

35 LR 14,184 69.2 ✔Chris Malone (I) – 53.1%Terrence Everitt – 46.9%


36 SR 6,399 85.8✔Nelson Dollar (I) – 49.3%

Jennifer Ferrell – 46.5%Brian Irving – 4.2%

38 SD 9,300 35.8 ✔Yvonne Lewis Holley (I) – 84.8%Olen Watson III – 15.2%

40 SR 13,125 73.9Marilyn Avila (I) – 49.6%

✔Joe John – 50.4%

41 CO 15,176 54.2 ✔Gale Adcock (I) – 57.0%Chris Shoffner – 43.0%

2016 NC HOUSE


44 LD 1,998 50 ✔Billy Richardson (I) – 50.6%Jim Arp – 49.4%

49 LR 2,346 66.8

Gary Pendleton (I) – 47.2%

✔Cynthia Ball – 48.7%David Ulmer – 4.1%

50 SD 6,127 51.8 ✔Graig R. Meyer (I) – 57.2%Rod Chaney – 42.8%

2016 NC HOUSE


51 LR 5,706 76.7Brad Salmon (I) – 44.3%

✔John Sauls – 55.7%

53 LR 7,740 90.5 ✔David R. Lewis (I) – 60.7%Jon Blum – 39.3%

54 LD 5,531 50 ✔Robert T. Reives II (I) – 57.2%Wesley Seawell – 42.8%

2016 NC HOUSE


55 SR 683 85.8 ✔Mark Brody (I) – 60.5%Kim Hargett – 39.5%

59 SR 5,676 81.7 ✔Jon Hardister (I) – 60.4%Scott Jones – 39.6%

65 LR -2,516 85.8 ✔Bert Jones (I) – 60.5%H. Keith Duncan – 39.5%


67 SR -472 81.7✔Justin P. Burr (I) – 53.3%Carson R. Snyder – 27.7%

Billy Mills – 19.0%

69 SR 6,387 90.8 ✔Dean Arp (I) – 66.0%Gordon Daniels – 34.0%

70 SR 605 85.8 ✔Pat B. Hurley (I) – 76.2% Lois Bohnsack – 23.8%

74 SR 1,963 85.8 ✔Debra Conrad (I) – 63.5%Marilyn Baker – 36.5%


82 SR 9,031 69.2 ✔Larry G. Pittman (I) – 57.9%Earle Schecter – 42.1%

83 SR 4,343 90 ✔Linda P. Johnson (I) – 63.2%Jeremy Hachen - 36.8%

84 SR 1,890 90 ✔Rena W. Turner (I) – 69.3%John Wayne Kahl – 30.7%

86 SR -161 85.5 ✔Hugh Blackwell (I) – 62.5%Tim Barnsback – 37.5%


88 SR 1,353 92.5Rob Bryan (I) – 49.4%✔Mary Belk – 50.6%

90 SR -737 90 ✔Sarah Stevens (I) – 73.2%Vera Smith Reynolds – 26.8%

93 LR 1,326 81.7 ✔Jonathan C. Jordan (I) – 53.0%Sue Counts – 47.0%

94 SR -729 85 ✔Jeffrey Elmore (I) – 74.5%Michael Lentz – 25.5%

98 SR 13,475 90 ✔John Bradford (I) – 56.5%Jane Campbell – 43.5%

2016 NC HOUSE


118 LR 508 85.8 ✔Michele D. Presnell (I) – 55.4%Rhonda C. Schandevel – 44.6%

119 CO 1,119 48.3Joe Sam Queen (I) – 49.6%

✔Mike Clampitt – 50.4%

2016 OPEN SEAT RACES – NC HOUSE

HOUSE DISTINCUMBENT CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES

6TINE (U) CO 238 90.0 ✔Beverly Boswell – 51.9%

Warren Judge – 48.1%

9B. BROWN (R) LR 3,747 90.0 ✔Greg Murphy – 57.5%

Brian Farkas – 42.5%

20CATLIN (R) SR 6,747 78.9 ✔Holly Grange – 100%

26DAUGHTRY (R) SR 8,091 95.0 ✔Donna M. White – 58.0%

Rich Nixon – 42.0%

28LANGDON (R) SR 4,368 85.8 ✔Larry C. Strickland – 70.7%

Patricia Oliver – 29.3%


HOUSE DISTRICTINCUMBENT CVB POP

+/-INCLBR CANDIDATES

32B’VILLE (D) SD -1,692 40.8 ✔Terry Garrison – 100%

37STAM (R) SR 12,046 85.8

✔Linda Hunt-Williams – 52.3% Randy Barrow – 43.0%

Robert Rose – 4.7%

46WADDELL (D) SD -1,093 85.0

✔Brenden Jones – 60.4%Tim Benton – 36.4%

Thomas (Tom) Howell Jr – 3.2%


HOUSE DISTRICTINCUMBENT CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES

58JOHNSON (D) SD 1,995 ✔Amos Quick – 100%

81R. BROWN (R) SR 663 80.0 ✔Larry W. Potts – 68.4%

Andy Herick – 31.6%

91H’WAY (R) SR 1,050 85.8 ✔Kyle Hall – 66.4%

Eugene Russell – 33.6%

2016 OPEN SEAT RACES – NC HOUSEHOUSE DISTRICT

INCUMBENT CVB POP+/-

INCLBR CANDIDATES

92JETER (R) CO 15,160 86.7

Beth Danae Caulfield – 44.6%

✔Chaz Beasley – 54.4%

100COTHAM (D) SD 1,692 59.3 ✔John Autry - 100%

104BISHOP (R) SR 1,417 85.0 ✔Andy Dulin – 55.3%

Peter Noris – 44.7%

105SCHAFFER (R) SR 12,855 85.0 ✔Scott Stone – 55.3%

Connie Green-Johnson – 44.7%


101 SD 10,098 45 ✔Beverly Miller Earle (I) – 76.0%Justin Dunn – 24.0%

103 SR 6,714 90.5 ✔Bill Brawley (I) – 56.2%Rochelle Rivas – 43.8%

109 SR 1,476 77.5 ✔Dana Bumgardner (I) – 61.2%Susan Maxon – 38.8%

115 CO 3,778 50 ✔John Ager (I) – 55.6%Frank Moretz – 44.4%


HOUSE DISTRICTINCUMBENT CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES

112HAGER (R) SR -2,475 95.0 ✔David Rogers – 71.0%

Ben Edwards – 29.0%

113WHITMIRE (R) SR 757 90.0 ✔Cody Henson – 61.6%

Maureen M. Copelof – 38.4%

120WEST (R) SR -573 95.0 ✔Kevin Corbin –72.0%

Randy Hogsed – 28.0%

Observations on 2016 Election• This is the new North Carolina – electoral

landscape has shifted and will continue to

• Urban versus Rural with battleground Suburbs … for now

• Charlie dominates, but watch Asheville & Wilmington (and others)

• Candidates and issue communication matter a lot more

• Millennials on the rise – as candidates

What does 2016 mean for 2018

• First midterm of new President historically goes against their party

• Probably within start of next economic slowdown

• New state legislative district maps + 2017 election

• No US Senate race in NC (state Sup Court seat)

• Follows two years of gridlock or HB2-type stuff

• More civil unrest, incidents of terrorism

What can business do?

• Be your own party


• Inform your workforce


• Commit to engagement

2014 Election Updates & Insights

Questions?

Joe StewartExecutive [email protected]

(919) 614-0520

www.ncfef.org

@ncfef

NCFEF

2016 presentation dec 6

Government & Nonprofit

Transcript of 2016 presentation dec 6