Presentación Kati Suominen - eRetail Day México 2016
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Transcript of Presentación Kati Suominen - eRetail Day México 2016
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Cross-Border Ecommerce Explosion in 2016-2020
Where Is Growth Coming From – and Is That Where You Will Be?
Dr. Kati SuominenFounder & CEO, NextradeGroup & TradeUp Capital Fund
27 October 2016eRetail Day, Mexico City
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Cross-Border Trade Is Growing
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Cross-Border Ecommerce Grows Much Faster
Cross-border ecommerce growth = 5x domestic ecommerce growth in 2016-2020
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Who’s Driving This? B2C Ecommerce Markets in 2015
Source: eMarketer.
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This is Ecommerce 1.0, driven by only a handful of humanity…
7.4bn people
5.2bn mobile phones
3.2bn online
1.1bn high-speed
Internet
• Wealthy• Urban• Young• Male• Developed
countries
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The Next 5 Years
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Megatrend 1: Huge Growth in Internet Users
270m in LatAm
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More & More of LatAm Netizens =Digital Buyers
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Megatrend 2: Incomes Are Growing
Per capita income, 2016 and 2020
• 75% of consumption growth is from income growth
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Strong Income Growth in LatAm 2016-2020
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Global Income “Pyramid”
1bn people<$1 / day
3bn people$1-$8 / day
2bn people$10-$60 / day
1bn people>$60 / day
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New Shoppers: Global “Bulk Bracket”
1bn people<$1 / day
3bn people$1-$8 / day
2bn people$10-$60 / day
1bn people>$60 / day
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Megatrend 3: More Low Income Online Shoppers – do they buy online?
Before
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Megatrend 3: More Low Income Online Shoppers
Now
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Ecommerce as % of LatAm Retail Growing
• UK: 14%• US: 8%• China: 13%• Brazil: 4%
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Emerging eMarkets
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LatAm Companies: Already in Crossborder
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In Many Markets: 23% sell in 5 or more markets
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Derive 30-40% of revenue from cross-border
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China’s $24,000 Club
• Higher incomes: more discretionary income, purchases of luxury products
• 100 million by 2020
• Highly connected
• Buying ~$6.5T
• 53% of the millennials – who buy 40% more than older people of same incomes
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= 1 new Germany
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Womenomics
• Women drive 65-80% of all B2C purchasing
• Women have money to spend: incomes at $18T by 2018
• U.S. women make 61% of online purchases and 58% of online spending
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Asian women emerging as spenders
Source: EIU.
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Huge Mass of Urban Consumers
• Want to reach 80% of consumers by 2020?
Be in 430 world markets = cities
• 410m people & 61% of world GDP by 2030 in 750 mega-cities
• 91% of growth in consumption comes from cities
• Large young & urban populations in Nigeria, China, India, Brazil
• Most urban consumption still in China + North America: 315 cities make up 40% of consumption growth
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Biggest 2030 spenders: today’s millennials
Source: McKinsey Global Institute.
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Source: McKinsey Global Institute.
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Africa 2025: 50% online, spend $75bn
Online Retail Spend, in billions $
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• B2B ecommerce at $6.7T by 2020: manufacturers and wholesalers getting online
• Smartphones accelerate this: already, 42% of B2B purchase researchers use a mobile device during the purchasing process
• >50% of B2B decision-makers in 2020: Millennials
B2B Is Exploding
Source: Google.
2012 2015
3x growth in B2B searches from mobiles
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Cities
What Is Your Strategy?
New Spending Power
New connectivity
China $24K Club
B2C & B2B
Emerging markets of LAC
B2C, B2BEmerging
market womenB2C
Advanced economy
women and men B2C
Advanced economy
businessesB2B
Rural, BOPB2C, B2C
Africa
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Cross-Border Ecommerce Explosion in 2016-2020
Where Is Growth Coming From – and Is That Where You Will Be?
Dr. Kati SuominenFounder & CEO, NextradeGroup & TradeUp Capital Fund
27 October 2016eRetail Day, Mexico City
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How To Get at These Markets?
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1: Go Mobile
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Africa Buys on Mobile
Online Purchase Method
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Low-Income People Connect Online on Mobile
Go “Mobile First”
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Buy online to save time
Buy online to find best fit, save money
2: Know Your Customer’s Drivers
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Source: Esri data.
2016
3: Know Where Your Customer Is
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Source: Esri data.
2020
And Where She Will Be
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4: Do Customer Analytics
Source: McKinsey.
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Ecommerce Explosion in 2016-2020
Where Is Growth Coming From – and Is That Where You Will Be?
Dr. Kati SuominenFounder & CEO, NextradeGroup & TradeUp Capital Fund
Adjunct Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) 21 October 2016
Global Small Business Forum, [email protected]