R Graphics Output...Jan 11, 2021 · Arizona Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01...
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● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● National Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 Jan-15 Feb-01 0 5k 10k 15k 20k 25k 30k New Weekly Deaths Reported BPagano UGA-CEID Columbia-UNC Covid19Sim MIT-ORC Columbia DDS LSHTM GT-DeepCOVID ISU JHU-IDD JHU-APL Karlen LANL Microsoft MIT-LCP MIT-CovAlliance MOBS Oliver Wyman PSI QJHong ESG RPI-UW SignatureScience CovidComplete UA UCLA UCM UCSD-NEU UMass-MB UM SUNY USC UT Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 Jan-15 Feb-01 0 5k 10k 15k 20k 25k 30k ● ● ● ● Ensemble Individual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 Jan-15 Feb-01 0 100k 200k 300k 400k 500k Total Deaths Reported BPagano UGA-CEID Columbia-UNC Covid19Sim MIT-ORC Columbia DDS LSHTM GT-DeepCOVID ISU JHU-IDD JHU-APL Karlen LANL Microsoft MIT-LCP MOBS Oliver Wyman PSI QJHong RPI-UW SignatureScience CovidComplete UA UCLA UCM UCSD-NEU UMass-MB UM USC UT Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 Jan-15 Feb-01 0 100k 200k 300k 400k 500k ● ● ● ● Ensemble Individual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Update: 2021-01-11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Alabama Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 Jan-15 Feb-01 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 New Weekly Deaths Reported BPagano UGA-CEID CMU Covid19Sim MIT-ORC Columbia DDS LSHTM GT-DeepCOVID ISU JHU-CSSE JHU-IDD JHU-APL Karlen LANL Microsoft MIT-LCP MIT-CovAlliance MOBS Oliver Wyman PSI ESG RPI-UW CovidComplete UA UCLA UCSB UCSD-NEU UMass-MB UM USC UT Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 Jan-15 Feb-01 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 ● ● ● ● Ensemble Individual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 Jan-15 Feb-01 0 2k 4k 6k 8k Total Deaths Reported UGA-CEID MIT-ORC Columbia DDS LSHTM Google-HSPH GT-DeepCOVID ISU JHU-CSSE JHU-IDD JHU-APL Karlen LANL Microsoft MIT-LCP MIT-CovAlliance MOBS Oliver Wyman PSI RPI-UW CovidComplete UA UCLA UCSB UCSD-NEU UMass-MB UM USC UT Walmart Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 Jan-15 Feb-01 0 2k 4k 6k 8k ● ● ● ● Ensemble Individual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Update: 2021-01-11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html
Transcript of R Graphics Output...Jan 11, 2021 · Arizona Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01...
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National
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
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5k
10k
15k
20k
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New
Wee
kly
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ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAlliance
MOBSOliver WymanPSIQJHongESGRPI−UWSignatureScienceCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMSUNYUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIQJHongRPI−UWSignatureScienceCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Alabama
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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ReportedUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
ISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Alaska
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sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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American Samoa
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Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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ReportedUGA−CEIDLSHTM
JHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
ESGUMass−MBUSC
Walmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Arizona
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500
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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ReportedUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Arkansas
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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California
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Tota
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ReportedUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAlliance
MOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Colorado
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Connecticut
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Delaware
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
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20
40
60
80
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Wee
kly
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ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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District of Columbia
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
KarlenLANLMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceOliver WymanPSIESG
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUMass−MBUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Tota
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
KarlenLANLMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceOliver WymanPSIESG
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSBUMass−MBUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Florida**
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●● ● ●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
●●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
30k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
30k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●
●
●●
●
●● ●
●
●
Georgia
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
1kN
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●●
●
●● ●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
1k
●●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ● ●
● ●●
● ●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
ISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ● ●
● ●●
● ●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Guam
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2
4
6
8
10
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDLSHTM
JHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
PSIESGUCLA
UMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2
4
6
8
10
●
● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●● ● ●
● ● ● ●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDLSHTMJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDPSIUCLAUMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●● ● ●
● ● ● ●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
● ●
●
● ●
● ●
●
Hawaii
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
10
20
30
40
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ●●
● ●
●
● ●
● ●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
10
20
30
40
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●● ● ●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
JHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●● ● ●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Idaho
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
● ●
Illinois
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5kN
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
● ●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
●● ●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
Indiana
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
Iowa
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
Kansas
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
Kentucky
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ● ●
● ●
● ●
●
●
●
Louisiana
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
500
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●
● ●
● ●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
500
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
Maine
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
20
40
60
80
100
120N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
●●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●●
●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●●
●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●● ●
Maryland
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
500
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●● ●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
500
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
● ●
●
● ● ●
●
●
Massachusetts
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
1kN
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ●
●
● ● ●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
1k
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
● ● ●
● ●
●
Michigan
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
● ● ●
● ●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
Minnesota
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
500N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
500
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ●● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
Mississippi
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
500
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
500
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
Missouri
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
Montana
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nebraska
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
● ●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
● ●
●
●●
●●
●
Nevada
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ●
●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●● ●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
New Hampshire
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals●
● ●●
●●
● ●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
●●
●
● ● ●
●
●
New Jersey
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
1k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
● ● ●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
1k
● ●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
New Mexico
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
●●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
New York**
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
●
● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
10k
20k
30k
40k
50k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
10k
20k
30k
40k
50k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●●
●
North Carolina
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
1kN
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
1k
●●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
ISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
North Dakota*
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
20
40
60
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
20
40
60
●
●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k● ●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Northern Mariana Islands
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDLSHTMJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLESGUMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1
2
3
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDLSHTMJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLESGUMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1
2
3
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
Ohio
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
14k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
14k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ●
●●
●●
●
● ●
●
Oklahoma
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
●●
●●
●
● ●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
● ●● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
Oregon
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
200
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
200
● ●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Pennsylvania
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
● ●● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
●●
●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
●●
●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
Puerto Rico
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMU
Covid19SimLSHTMJHU−CSSEJHU−IDD
JHU−APLKarlenLANLPSI
ESGUCLAUMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
● ●● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19Sim
LSHTMJHU−CSSEKarlenLANL
PSIESGUCLAUMass−MB
USCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
Rhode Island
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
200
250
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
200
250
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
3k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
3k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
South Carolina
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
●●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
South Dakota
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
20
40
60
80
100
120N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●●
●
Tennessee
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
1k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
1k
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
Texas
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
3kN
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
3k
●● ●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
10k
20k
30k
40k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
10k
20k
30k
40k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ●
● ● ●
●
●
●
●
●
Utah
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
● ● ●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
● ●
●
●
● ●
●●
Vermont
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
10
20
30
40
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ●●
● ●
●
●
● ●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
10
20
30
40
● ●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●●
●●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●●
●●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
●
Virgin Islands
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1
2
3
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDLSHTM
JHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
LANLPSIESG
UMass−MB
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1
2
3
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
10
20
30
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDLSHTM
JHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
LANLPSIESG
UMass−MB
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
10
20
30
●● ●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
Virginia**
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
500
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
500
●●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Washington
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
● ●● ●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
ISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
● ●● ●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
West Virginia
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
200
250
300N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
Wisconsin
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
100
200
300
400
● ●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
ISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAlliance
MOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Wyoming
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
20
40
60
80N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
20
40
60
80
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MIT−CovAllianceMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15 Feb−01
0
200
400
600
800
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2021−01−11 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
